In the midst of India’s parliamentary election, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister published a report titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)” that has sparked heated debate and created significant tension between Hindus and Muslims in India. Using data from 167 countries, this report examines the status and trends of religious minorities around the world over a 65-year period. This study explores the status of religious minorities who are frequently subjected to discrimination, humiliation, and even physical violence. It hypothesized that the growth of religious minorities are dependent on the political environment, in a conducive political environment, religious minorities grow and thrive but in a hostile environment they decline.
While this report addresses an important issue, its exclusive reliance on percentage figures for specific periods fails to present an accurate picture, which has led to varying interpretations and tensions between Hindus and Muslims. This inadvertently perpetuates the perception that Muslims will eventually outnumber Hindus and provides a political tool for majoritarians seeking to control minorities. To provide a clearer perspective, a critical analysis considering fertility rate trends and highlighting the current convergence of fertility rates between Hindus and Muslims is essential. Such an approach would also help to dispel existing misconceptions and heated debate between Hindus and Muslims.
- Although this is a global report, it gives special focus on the Indian subcontinent, SAARC countries and Myanmar. It measures the percentage change of religious minorities and identifies significant shifts in the population shares of major religions in various countries including India,. In India, between 1950 and 2015, the Hindu population fell by 7.82 percent, while the Muslim population grew by 43.15 percent. During the same time period, the religious minority Hindu population in Bangladesh fell from 23 percent to 8 percent, a 66 percent decrease, while the Hindu population in Pakistan fell from 13 percent to 2 percent. Among the neighbouring countries, the Buddhist majority countries Bhutan and Sri Lanka also witnessed significant decrease in religious minority Hindu population, while the Hindu majority Nepal witnessed a slight increase in Muslim and Christian population.
In India, Hindus and Muslims together account for 94 percent of the total population. Historically, fertility rate (average number of children a woman is estimated to have in her life) of Muslims was higher than that of Hindus. The fertility rate difference between these two religious groups is a sensitive and hotly debated issue in political, social and academic circles. Some scholars predicted that if the current fertility rates continued, Muslims would outnumber Hindus by the year 2071. Findings of this report have reignited an old debate that Muslims will eventually outnumber Hindus in India and has triggered huge tension. Considering its wider social and political implications, it is crucial to examine demographic data and trends to determine the validity of this perspective and promote an informed discussion.
While religious beliefs can influence fertility behavior to some extent, an increasing body of evidence suggests that socioeconomic status, economic empowerment, education, awareness, access to healthcare facilities, government policies, and socio-cultural norms also play a crucial role in fertility decisions. For instance, Muslim women in Andhra Pradesh or Kerala tend to have fewer children than Hindu women in Bihar or Jharkhand. Additionally, several Muslim-majority countries, including Albania, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran have experienced declines in fertility rates over the past few decades, bringing them below the global average. These examples highlight the fact that labeling fertility rates as based solely on religious faith is not fair.
Let us examine the socioeconomic status of Muslims in India. The Sachar Committee Report, commissioned by the Government of India and chaired by Justice Rajindar Sachar, investigated the socioeconomic status of Muslims in India and submitted its findings in 2006. According to this report, Muslims in India lagged behind other religious communities in education, employment, income, and access to basic amenities such as housing, healthcare, and other public services. Muslims not only had lower levels of educational attainment but also faced challenges in accessing formal employment opportunities, and frequently worked in low-paying informal sectors. A significantly large proportion of Muslims lived below the poverty line. They were also under-represented in government jobs, civil services, and public sector enterprises, as well as in elected bodies and decision-making positions at various levels of government. Several academic studies confirmed these disparities.
In India, the first census was conducted in 1951, and there were 304 million Hindus and 35 million Muslims. Between 1951 and 2011, India’s population grew by more than threefold, from 361 million to over 1.2 billion. Hindus increased from 304 million to 966 million, while Muslims grew from 35 million to 172 million. Despite Muslims’ higher fertility rate, the gap between Hindu and Muslim population is increasing over the years. While the gap between Hindus and Muslims was 269 million in 1951, it increased to 794 million by 2011. So, the widely held belief that Muslims will outnumber Hindus soon is not supported by the current demographic trends.
In the last three decades, fertility rates among Muslims are declining fast. In 1992, Muslim fertility rate was 4.4 and Hindu fertility rate was 3.3 with a gap of 1.1. But, the fertility rate among Muslims dropped to 3.6 in 1998, 3.4 in 2005, 2.6 in 2015, and 2.36 in 2019. Similarly, Hindu fertility rates have decreased from 3.3 in 1992 to 2.8 in 1998, 2.6 in 2005, 2.1 in 2015 and 1.94 in 2019. The National Family and Health Survey (2019-21) reveals that from 2011 to 2019, TFR of Muslims is decreasing faster than that of Hindus. Because of this, the gap between fertility rate between the Hindus and Muslims reduced to 0.42. While Muslim fertility rates remain higher than those of Hindus, the gap is narrowing and on the verge of convergence.
While this report addresses an important issue, its exclusive reliance on percentage figures for specific periods fails to present an accurate picture, which has led to varying interpretations and tensions between Hindus and Muslims. This inadvertently perpetuates the perception that Muslims will eventually outnumber Hindus and provides a political tool for majoritarians seeking to control minorities. To provide a clearer perspective, a critical analysis considering fertility rate trends and highlighting the current convergence of fertility rates between Hindus and Muslims is essential. Such an approach would also help to dispel existing misconceptions and heated debate between Hindus and Muslims.
