Glacial lake threat in GB subsides but fresh rains raise fears of more GLOFs

  • Over 3,000 displaced in Ghizer as GB faces its second-worst GLOF displacement since Attabad disaster
  • Govt says lake now stable; criticism mounts over Rs10b early warning system’s failure
  • PMD issues new alert as rain triggers landslides, road blockages across GB

GILGIT-BALTISTAN:The glacial lake formed after last week’s outburst in Ghizer district has receded to just 40 feet and no longer poses an immediate threat to nearby settlements, but a fresh spell of rain has heightened fears of further glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the region, the Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) government said on Sunday.

GB government spokesperson Faizullah Faraq confirmed that the lake in Talidas village of Gupis Valley—where a GLOF struck early Friday—had stabilized. Thanks to the timely warning of a shepherd, around 200 people were safely evacuated before floodwaters inundated the village.

“Currently, there is no danger from the lake,” Faraq said, acknowledging that Ghizer, Gilgit and Diamer districts were earlier at risk.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) said the outburst displaced around 3,000 people from 330 households, making it the second-largest displacement in GB since the 2010 Attabad disaster. Displaced families are now sheltering in makeshift tent settlements.

Locals have complained of shortages of food, drinking water, and shelter materials. “Hundreds rendered homeless are struggling for basic necessities,” one resident said.

GB Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA) Director General Zakir Hussain said a technical team had devised standard operating procedures (SOPs) for controlled water release from the artificial lake to ensure community safety. Work is also under way to temporarily restore the Gilgit-Shandur Road within 48 hours, while the National Highway Authority (NHA) has deployed heavy machinery for permanent rehabilitation once the mud stabilises.

Anger over failed early warning systems

Former GB chief minister Hafeezur Rehman criticised the Rs10 billion UNDP-backed GLOF-II early warning project, saying it failed to function during the incident. He alleged the funds were misused under the federal climate change ministry and demanded an inquiry.

Rehman suggested equipping communities with satellite phones instead of relying on “non-functional billion-rupee devices” installed in remote, electricity-starved areas.

New threats from rain and climate change

Even as the Talidas lake stabilises, a new spell of rain is triggering fresh landslides and road blockages in Astore, Hunza, Shigar, Ghanche, and Ghizer. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of an increased risk of GLOFs, flash floods, and landslides in vulnerable glaciated regions of GB and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the ongoing wet spell.

Residents expressed mounting anxiety. “Even light rain terrifies us now,” said Zulfiqar Ali, a Gilgit resident. “We have never seen such frequent disasters before.”

Pakistan is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. In 2022, historic monsoon floods submerged one-third of the country, killing nearly 1,700 people. Scientists warn that rising temperatures are accelerating glacial melt in GB, which hosts more than 7,000 glaciers—the largest concentration outside the polar regions—making the region acutely prone to GLOFs.

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