The federal government’s recent welcome of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s (PCA) decision on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is not just a diplomatic win; it’s a reminder of the ever-present threat to Pakistan’s survival that has been looming since India’s move to suspend the treaty. This court ruling clarifies that India must allow the free flow of water from the western rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted use, a basic principle enshrined in the IWT. But the situation goes beyond legalities—it is a matter of life and death for Pakistan.
India’s decision to suspend the treaty in April was in direct response to the attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, an incident for which India blamed Pakistan without evidence. In the aftermath, Pakistan warned that any attempt to withhold its rightful share of water would be considered an “act of war.” And for good reason—Pakistan’s very survival hinges on the waters of the Indus Basin, which sustain over 90% of the country’s agricultural sector. The treaty, signed in 1960, has withstood wars and terror attacks. Its inviolability has been the cornerstone of peace in the region. But India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty marked a dangerous departure from decades of stability.
The decision to halt the flow of water would be a catastrophic move for Pakistan, not just diplomatically but economically. For Pakistan, the treaty is not merely a legal document; it is vital to national and food security. The disruption of water supplies would devastate the economy, which relies on agriculture and hydropower from the Indus Basin. A scenario where India chokes Pakistan’s waterways is one that could push the country to the brink of desperation.
India’s leadership may believe that imposing such a measure would force Pakistan to yield. But this is a miscalculation. For Pakistan, a nation already under immense strain, the consequences of such actions would eliminate any chance of peaceful coexistence. The choice would no longer be diplomatic; it would be existential: fight, or perish. The trust required for any kind of negotiation would be irreparably broken.
It is crucial that Pakistan’s leadership continues to use diplomatic means to address this issue, but it must also communicate in no uncertain terms that the consequences of further escalation will be dire. We cannot be put in a position where the country must fight for its very survival. This is a matter of life and death, and as history has shown, Pakistan is not a nation that will go quietly into the night.
Pakistan must be firm and unwavering in its resolve. India should remember that the stakes are not just legal—they are geopolitical. Any attempt to undermine the IWT is an open invitation to conflict.
