The global rice market is currently under significant pressure as two of the world’s major importers — Indonesia and the Philippines — have halted rice imports. This slowdown has had a substantial impact on international rice prices that continue to decline day by day.
India, which is one of the largest rice producers globally, had rice stocks standing at approximately 60 million metric tonnes even before the current season began. With production now at its peak, the country’s reserves may reach 70-80 million metric tonnes, further depressing global prices.
In Pakistan, the situation is particularly concerning. The country is facing an economic crisis, and its farmers are among the most vulnerable to these market fluctuations. The government, constrained by commitments with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is unable to offer meaningful subsidies or financial support. This has left only one key stakeholder that is capable of making a difference; the millers.
Rice millers have invested millions, in some cases billions, in their businesses, and are understandably reluctant to reduce their profit margins. However, many seem to believe that farmers would continue to produce rice regardless of the price. This assumption is dangerously misguided. Farmers were willing to cultivate rice when they could earn a reasonable return, but that margin has now disappeared. As a result, many are considering shifting to other, more profitable crops, such as sugarcane, chilies or cotton.
Unless market conditions improve, this shift is inevitable. Experts estimate that the rice market may take three to four years to stabilise — unless an unforeseen disaster disrupts the balance. In this challenging environment, millers must recognise that their prosperity is directly tied to that of the farmers. Profit cannot be sustained in isolation. If farmers abandon rice cultivation, the entire value chain will suffer. Therefore, it is both a moral and economic imperative for millers to share part of the burden by reducing profit margins and ensuring that farmers receive fair compensation.
A sustainable market can only be built through shared responsibility, where both the farmers and millers thrive together.
GHULAM ASGHAR JAMALI
BADIN
