AT PENPOINT
US President Donald Trump had first set off something of a bombshell in Washington, saying that he expected to be succeeded by either Vice-President J.D. Vance or Secretary of State Mark Rubio, and then going off to the Anchorage summit with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Both his prediction and his trip were about legacy, for while the trip was help build his reputation, carefully promoted in his present term while his prediction recognizes the fact that while he will personally come to the end of his political career at the end of his current term, his political machine will remain in existence, and is a valuable legacy for whoever gets a piece of it.
The prediction is in a way more typical of Trump’s style of politics, both domestic and foreign. The recent summit showed him trying to make peace between Russia and Ukraine, but when the action shifted to Washington, it seemed Ukraine was not ready to come on board.
As for his prediction, it is useful to remember that Trump may well be bigger than the Republican party, and certainly likes to think so. Crucial to his ability to transfer his machine will be the midterm elections next year, when he will once again be tested. The renomination he received in 2024, after his defeat in 2020, was the result of the power he showed in the 2022 midterms, when he showed that his endorsement counted, not in the general election against the Democrat nominee, but in the Republican primary.
The result has been the imposition of more uniformity on the party than before. This is not really an imposition, so much as a reflection of what the Republican party now stands for. Unlike modest other populist figures, Trump does not really offer anything, but does indicate to the voter who can be trusted and who cannot. This might help explain his apparent untouchability by scandal: while that would be fatal for someone of whom something is expected, it is forgiven by voters and supporters for whom he is fulfilling a wish.
That means that every act of racism, every act of misogyny, every display of ignorance, is forgiven by voters who secretly wish to be able to voice any of these things, but dare not. It is worth seeing whether Trump’s connection with the late Jeffrey Epstein will outdo this, because Epstein, who was convicted of paedophilia, and who died in prison in 2019, was seen by Trump supporters as one figure in an alleged paedophilia ring. The Biden Administration is alleged to have covered up the facts revealed by the investigation after he died, because of the large number of Democrat leaders who would be revealed as Epstein companions.
Instead of releasing the information collected, it seems the Trump Administration is now sitting on the evidence collected. A recent newspaper report has indicated that Trump’s relationship with Epstein was closer than he has admitted so far. That would mean that Trump is part of the elite that he has led the fight against. In the midst of all this, he has created rivals for the succession, Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Mark Rubio, who hold positions that lead to the Presidency. It is easier for Vice Presidents, who have only to preside over the Senate, to plug in to the fund-raising machine that is needed in recent times, Vice-Presidents have had a better chance. Discounting Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolige, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johson and Gerald Ford, who were sitting Vice-Presidents who became President after their principal died on them, Vice-Presidents have done well in the last century or so.
Dwight Eisenhower’s Vice-President Richard Nixon lost immediately after, in 1960, to Kennedy, but won the nomination and Presidency in 1968. Nixon’s Vice President, Gerald Ford, lost in 1976, but won the nomination, though after a strong challenge from Ronald Reagan. Reagan himself won in 1980. Reagan’s Vice-President, George Bush, won in 1988. Jimmy Carter’s Vice-President lost to Reagan in 1976. Al Gore, Clinton’s Vice-President, lost in 2000. George Bush’s Vice-President, Dan Quayle, ran in 2000, but failed to win the nomination, withdrawing early in favour of the younger Bush. Bush’s Vice-President, Peter Cheyney, never ran for President, having two huge disadvantages. His daughter had come out as gay, and he had had a multiple coronary bypass.
Trump controls the Republican Party like no one as ever before. Peace in Ukraine is almost a sideshow as the world now focuses on who will inherit his mantle, or rather be given it.
Obama’s Vice-President, Joe Biden, contested in 2016, but did not win the nomination. He tried again in 2020, and won not just the nomination, but the Presidency. He did not contest in 2024, even though he had won nomination, and left his Vie-President, Kamala Harris, to do so instead. She joined the list of Vice-Presidents who lost.
Trump is unusual in that he won, then lost, then won again. The only other example is Grover Cleveland, who won in 1888, lost in 1892, then won in 1896. His first vie-president, Thomas Hendricks, died in office. At that time, a vacancy in the vice-presidency was left vacant, and it was only in the 20th century that the President was allowed to fill the office by nomination. Trump probably wished that his first Vice-President, Mark Pence, had suffered Hendricks’ fate. Cleveland’s second Vice-President, Adlai Stevenson, was the Democratic nominee in 1900, but went down to defeat. Interestingly, Stevenson’s grandson, Adlai Stevenson II, was the Democratic nominee in 1952 and 1956, losing both times to Eisenhower. That precedent indicates that Vance should get the nomination, but be beaten.
Though James Madison, and then James Munroe and John Quincy Adams were respectively the fourth, fifth and sixth Presidents after having been Secretary of State to their predecessors, this emphasis on foreign affairs was set aside when the populist Andrew Jackson was elected President in place of Secretary of State Henry Clay. After that, no Secretary of State, serving or former, even ran for President., until Hillary Clinton, who wanted to qualify herself, apparently feeling that having been First Lady was not enough. First she was elected Senator from New York, then she was Secretary of State during Barack Obama’s first term, leaving in his second to prepare to campaign in 2016. She won the party nomination, but lost the election. Interestingly, the man who beat her, Donald Trump, had never held any public office before, either elected or appointed.
By naming Vance and Rubio, Trump has set up the classic successor’s syndrome, whereby monarchs detests their crown princes. Historically, this problem has afflicted all monarchies, with heirs apprent having a propensity to rebel. Rebellions have been mounted against fathers, often successfully, but in Trump’s case this might not happen, for the heir apparent would need Trump’s approval.
There are two problems. First, there is the would-be successor who does not win Trump’s final approval. Should he rebel? Maybe Trump will leave the decision to the voter. After all, the legacy consists of the voters, and if the voters refuse to vote for the anointed successor, then the legacy disappears. Vance has an Indian wife, while Rubio is Hispanic, which will not resonate with the base, which is racist if it could be frank about it.
Then there is the family. Trump’s eldest daughter was active in his first-term, but has faded. Donald Trump, Jr, his eldest son, but without a high-profile role, has not ruled out the possibility of running, but not in 2028. It is almost as if he is going by George W. Bush playbook, leaving Vance a shot, and then staking his claim in 2032.
Trump controls the Republican Party like no one as ever before. Peace in Ukraine is almost a sideshow as the world now focuses on who will inherit his mantle, or rather be given it.
