“And We created from Water every living being” –Al-Quran
Suspension of Indus Water Treaty
A number of persons were killed in a terrorist attack on a tourist bus, in the Indian Occupied Kashmir, in April 2025. Following its usual rhetoric, India, without any evidence, blamed Pakistan for harbouring the terrorist attack, which Pakistan vehemently denies. On this self- perceived reason, (or perhaps self-executed “terrorist” act), India not only launched a massive military attack against Pakistan, it also took several unilateral measures, including the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty.
Signed by the two countries, in September 1960, through the World Bank mediation, the IWT allocated the three eastern rivers, (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas) to India, and three western rivers, (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), to Pakistan. It is interesting to note that none of these western rivers passes through undisputed Indian territory.
The river Indus originates in China, and travels through the disputed territories of Ladakh and Indian Occupied Kashmir, before entering Pakistan. The Jhelum originates in IOK, while two tributaries of Chenab also meet in IOK, and travel through it, before entering Pakistan. And these are these disputed territories, where, in violation of the IWT, India has built several hydroelectric projects, with reservoir capacities significantly larger than that required for power generation, thus exceeding its limit of 3.6 billion acre feet, of total storage it can create on all western rivers, under the IWT.
To keep running the nationwide irrigation system, (the World’s largest contiguous irrigation system), Pakistan built a colossal network of dams, barrages, and link canals, to divert water from western rivers to eastern rivers, which were surrendered to India. This investment will practically go waste in case the IWT suspension prolongs.
Regarded as the most robust and durable water treaty in the world, it continued unabated, despite perpetually strained relations between the two countries, two major wars, and other armed conflicts.
However, ever since coming to power, in 2014, the BJP government has left no stone unturned to harm and isolate Pakistan. Weaponizing water has been a decades-old strategy of India against Pakistan. In this perspective, the IWT suspension is perhaps the first step, aimed at turning Pakistan into a desert. This is an act of war against the 250 million people of Pakistan, not only impacting the lives and livelihoods of farmers, but all the men, women, and children of this lower riparian country. Pakistan must act now, to strongly solicit reinstatement of the Treaty. Every day lost has a cost that Pakistan has to pay.
Before discussing the legal and diplomatic battle, aimed at the restoration of IWT, let’s have a look at the broader/ multidimensional picture of the water issue Pakistan is facing.
Early in 2006, I was present at the launching ceremony of the World Bank’s publication, “Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry.” The Report identified Pakistan among the water stressed countries, predicting that it will turn water scarce by 2035. These forecasts were made without foreseeing the suspension of IWT by India, which will only exacerbate the water scarcity scenario. While the IWT is critical for keeping the water flowing in the colossal canal irrigation system, more needs to be done to avoid the looming water borne catastrophe.
Climate change/global warming, particularly rapid melting of western Himalayan glaciers, has a direct impact on the water flow pattern of our rivers, particularly the Indus. This will initially result in higher flows, (with associated floods), which will gradually reduce, as the glaciers shrink. A combination of mitigation, through rapid construction of reservoirs and increasing irrigation efficiency; and adaptation by changing cropping patterns; are the medium to long term measures to cope
A four pronged strategy is proposed to avoid this, and let the dissipating water resources continue to drive sustainable economic growth and prosperity, (Figure-1).
These four areas of intervention include:
- A right-based, result-oriented, legal and diplomatic campaign for the restoration of IWT as early as possible;
- Accelerated construction of large, small, and mini dams to develop water storage/retention systems
- Conserving water through the introduction of high efficiency/pressurized irrigation systems and low delta crops
- Improving yield per acre.
The four pronged strategy is envisioned as a cyclic process to achieve sustained economic growth and prosperity, in the wake of imminent water scarcity. The four action areas are discussed.
- Right-Based Legal / Diplomatic Campaign to Restore IWT
Signed in good faith by India and Pakistan, IWT has been framed to stay valid in perpetuity. Its overarching framework is driven from the universally recognized rights of lower riparians. The Treaty itself has a built-in mechanism in the form of the Indus River Commission, to address any operational disputes that may arise. However, its suspension in the garb of external factors, like unsupported accusations of terrorist harbouring, appears beyond the scope of this Commission.
Nevertheless, there are a number of other forums where this unilateral suspension of IWT can be raised. They include: International Water Association; International Court of Justice; Permanent Court of Arbitration; and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, (UNECE), which can be approached by countries outside Europe as well.
While all these platforms need to be activated, as the suspension of IWT is more of an act of war, the most appropriate forum to avert the situation is the UN Security Council. A meeting of the Council must be convened where the case is advocated by a well informed high-level delegation of Pakistan, supported by competent legal and technical experts. The urgency of convening the UNSC and obtaining the Council’s resolution to restore the Treaty, cannot be overemphasized.
Also important is to take cognizance of the role President Trump played in securing the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. To move from this fragile and uneasy ceasefire, the Trump Administration needs to be persuaded to play a role in lifting the IWT suspension. This is, beyond doubt, the immediate first step, required to normalize the relations between the two nuclear armed countries.
- Water Storage / Retention Interventions
Large Storage Reservoirs
The upper riparian is always in a position to block downstream flow of water, generally, when it is most needed by the lower riparian. India has already constructed three dams on the Indus and plans six more. However, in summers, when the snow melts and the rainfall is heavy, (as in the case of monsoons in India and Pakistan), the upstream reservoirs are full, and large volumes of water have to be released to go downstream, resulting in enormous flooding. This is the time when appropriately located dams with large storage capacity need to be in place to store this water, for use in the cropping seasons.
Tarbela Dam on the Indus, and Mangla Dam on Jhelum provide large, but inadequate water storage, for allowing the canals flowing during Rabi and Kharif seasons. Owing to high volumes of silt entering its reservoir, the usable capacity of Tarbela has already reduced from over 9 MAF to almost 6 MAF. More storages need to be urgently constructed to augment this storage.
Diamer-Bhasha Dam is currently under construction. This Dam will not only provide 10.38 MAF of water, but will also increase the life of Tarbela Dam by about 35 years, by containing the silt entering the latter’s reservoir. Again, National consensus needs to be achieved for the construction of Kalabagh Dam, designs of which are already available.
Under the IWT suspension scenario and unfavorable climatic conditions in the catchment of the Indus, an accelerated completion of Diamer-Bhasha Dam and an immediate commencement of the construction of Kalabagh Dam, with a storage capacity of 7.52 MAF of practically silt-free water, is now a matter of economic survival of the Country.
- Small and Mini Dams
Other than the mighty rivers, divided between India and Pakistan under IWT, Pakistan has a large number of smaller rivers, and perennial and non-perennial streams with potential of building small and mini dams for inter-season storage or short duration storage to recharge groundwater, for abstraction by tube-wells. There is an urgent need to have these dams in place to mitigate floods and droughts at a local level.
As head of the Water Management Center at PPAF, the author has been instrumental in the construction of several mini dams throughout Pakistan. Important among them include those built in the drought-prone union councils in Pishin and Washuq districts of Balochistan, and Soon Valley and Lawa in the Potohar region in Punjab. These community driven interventions not only mitigated recurring droughts, but also resulted in economic uplift and environmental amelioration of these areas.
- Introducing Water Efficient Irrigation Systems and Low Delta Crops
With little awareness of the looming water scarcity, most of our farmers employ centuries-old flood irrigation methods. Again, high delta crops like rice, sugarcane are extensively grown. These crops require large volumes of water per kilogramme of production. Due to wasteful irrigation practices in Pakistan, as much as 4,000 litres of water are required to produce 1 kg of rice, which is almost twice of that in other Asian countries.
There is a need to immediately move from the current pilot stage – to large scale to universal, introduction of High Efficiency Irrigation Systems, (HEIS), including drip and sprinkler irrigation. The HEIS can result in up to 70 percent reduction in water consumption.
A consistent change in cropping patterns, towards low delta crops, will also be required to conserve maximum amounts of water.
- Increasing Farm Productivity
Yield per acre of different crops in Pakistan is much lower in comparison with its neighbouring countries. For example, the yield per hectare of wheat in the Indian Punjab is over 4,000 kg/ha, compared to about 2,500 kg per ha in the Pakistani Punjab. In the case of rice, the disparity is even more pronounced. Indian Punjab gets over 5,500 kg per ha, compared to only 1,700 kg per ha in its Pakistani counterpart. China leaves them both behind, by producing 6,500 kg per ha.
In the wake of looming water scarcity, we need to produce more per unit area, by introducing high yielding seeds, appropriate and affordable farm inputs, and above all, employing water efficient irrigation systems.
In conclusion, I would reemphasize that the four areas of intervention are not an either/or option. All of them must happen, and continue to happen simultaneously. For this purpose we need to have in place an empowered coordinating and facilitating body to ensure that all areas of action proceed in an orchestrated and synergistic manner.
