History as our guide: Toward a better future for global order

By Liu Zhenmin

Former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations

The year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and the founding of the United Nations (UN). At the end of the war, the UN was born, a contemporary international order took shape, and the course of human history was forever altered. Over the past eight decades, the UN-centered international system and the international law-based globalorder have helped maintain overall peace in the post-war era while promoting worldwide development and progress.

Today, eight decades later, the world once again stands at a historical crossroads. At this historical juncture, it is of great significance to reflect on how human society entered a new era of cooperation, to review the evolution of the contemporary international order over the past 80 years, and to look ahead to its future transformation. These are essential for advancing global governance reform in step with the times and for building a community with a shared future for humanity.

The UN-Centered International System Ushered in a New Era of Cooperation

Human civilization spans millennia, yet prior to the Age of Exploration, major civilizations largely existed and developed in relative isolation within their respective regions, without forming a global system of international relations. The Peace of Westphalia, signed in 1648, marked the birth of modern international relations. Yet in the 297 years that followed, until the end of World War II, the international order remained essentially an extension of the European system of that era, broadly characterized by four features.

First, the primary actors in international relations were Western colonial powers, while the majority of countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America were reduced to colonies or semi-colonies under Western domination. Second, an international legal system —symbolized by the Peace of Westphalia—gradually took shape, establishing norms such as state sovereignty and the peaceful settlement of international disputes. However, the use of force had not yet been legally prohibited, and war remained a tool of implementation of foreign policy for some states. Third, the international landscape was dominated by Western powers in a “rule of the jungle” environment, which ultimately led to the outbreak of two world wars in the first half of the 20th century.

Fourth, a truly effective international mechanism had yet to emerge. Before World War I, international relations were largely maintained through a “balance of power” among major states. After the war, the League of Nations—humanity’s first worldwide international
organization—was established. Yet it failed to fulfill its intended role, hampered by its hierarchical treatment of member states, domination by a few European powers, the absence of the United States, and the exclusion of the Soviet Union. Ultimately, the League proved ineffective, particularly in its failure to prevent fascist states such as Germany, Japan, and Italy from launching World War II, leading to its eventual demise. The establishment of the UN in 1945 marked a significant milestone, opening a new historical stage in international relations and representing a major advance over previous world orders. First, the UN Charter established the principles of international law—including the sovereign equality of states, non-interference in internal affairs, the non-use of force, and the peaceful settlement of international disputes.

For the first time in history, the threat or use of force in international relations was legally prohibited, formally rendering aggressive war illegal. Second, the Charter affirmed the right to self-determination for peoples under colonial rule. This provided the legal basis for the subsequent decolonization across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, leading to the emergence of newly independent states and the expansion of the community of international actors. Third, the Charter established an international system with the UN at its core and created a collective security mechanism centered on the Security Council. Such bodies as the IMF, the World Bank, and the GATT were also established to coordinate international economic affairs.

This paved the way for greater institutionalization and regularization of international relations.  Fourth, the UN Charter introduced the principle of unanimity among the five permanent members of the Security Council—China, France, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States—in effect creating a checks-and-balances mechanism among the major countries. This has played a vital role in maintaining overall stability in international relations, particularly in helping prevent the outbreak of a third world war.

The Evolution and Impact of the Four Pillars of the Contemporary International Order

Over the past eight decades, the international order has been continually reshaped—both in its objective environment and its institutional norms—amid a dynamic process of a transforming international architecture, shifting power balances, and evolving global priorities. First, the scope of international actors has expanded to include almost all nation-states, achieving global universality. When the UN was founded, it had only 51 member states; today, it has 193. Major countries and groups largely accept the current configuration of sovereign states, and the total number of independent sovereign states—as the primary players in international relations—is unlikely to change significantly, marking a period of relative stability in the structure of global actors.

The collective rise of Global South countries stands as a defining feature of the profound changes unseen in a century in the world. The Group of 77, formed within the UN and now comprising 133 members, has become a decisive force with the power to make or break multilateralism. Second, international law has increasingly become the cornerstone of
the contemporary international order. Since the founding of the UN, international law has evolved from a system based primarily on so-called customary rules to one grounded largely in treaties. Driven by the UN and other international institutions, the international community has concluded over 600 international treaties, ushering in an era governed by international law.

Today, with the exception of a few areas—such as exchange rates, international payment systems, and internet governance, which still operate under so-called “common practices” dominated by a handful of major countries—international treaties regulate nearly every sphere of human activity and closely reflect the needs and evolution of international relations. Without these more than 600 treaties, it would be difficult to sustain the overall stability of the contemporary international order and international relations. Third, the UN-centered international system has undergone comprehensive development. This system encompasses not only the six principal organs of the UN established under the UN Charter—such as the General Assembly, the Security Council, and the Economic and Social Council—but also 15 specialized agencies, including the World Bank Group and the World Health Organization.

In addition, the UN has established partnership relations with three organizations: the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Organization for Migration, and the World Trade Organization. It has also established 12 programs, funds, and other entities, including UNICEF, UNDP, and UNEP. Virtually every aspect of human productive endeavors and daily life is supported or regulated by international institutions—a development of great significance for humanity and the world. Fourth, shifts in the international landscape have become the most significant factor affecting the stability of the international order.

Nevertheless, the five permanent members recognized by the UN Charter remain pivotal forces shaping contemporary international relations. Over the past 80 years, the international landscape has undergone several transformations, driven by changes in relations among major countries. In the first 45 years following the UN’s establishment, the world was profoundly shaped by the Cold War, during which the two major blocs—the US-led NATO and the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact—were locked in confrontation. The international order during this period was also influenced by two positive developments: the rise of a third international force, represented by the Group of 77 and the Non-Aligned Movement, and the restoration of the lawful seat of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the UN in 1971, which ended 22 years of unjust exclusion of the PRC from the UN system and brought the US-Soviet Union-China triangular relationship into the UN framework.

Following the end of the Cold War, the United States became the world’s sole superpower, leading to an international structure often described as “one superpower with multiple major powers.” At the same time, with the EU’s deepening integration, Russia’s revitalization, China’s rapid development, and the rise of other developing countries, the trend of multipolarity has been strengthened despite twists and turns. The 2008 international financial crisis exposed the limitations of the United States in addressing severe global crises alone or by solely relying on developed countries. In response, the United States initiated the G20 Leader’s Summit in 2008, which brought together major countries from all regions of the world—an important milestone in the ongoing development of a multipolar world. Looking back over the past 80 years, the status of the five permanent members in the international landscape has not undergone fundamental
changes compared to the time of the UN’s founding.

The China-US-Russia triangular relationship has seen its influence rise steadily. Although the power of the UK and France has declined, the European Union has gradually emerged as an important actor in international relations. The influence of the BRICS countries is growing, becoming a force that can rival the G7. The collective influence of the Global South continues to rise. Although it is becoming increasingly difficult for major countries to reach consensus, a ““balance of power” among them still persists.

The Contemporary International Order Faces Grave Challenges, Yet It Must Be Reformed, Not Replaced

In recent years, the contemporary international order has facedgravechallenges. Beginning in 2017, during the first term of President Trump, the United States has pursued an “America First” policy, withdrawing from 17 international organizations and treaties. The subsequent Biden administration rejoined some of these multilateral mechanisms, but the shadow of U.S. isolationism continued to loom. In January this year, withthe return of President Trump to the White House, the United States has adopted even more radical policies, announcing its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and international institutions such as the World Health Organization, and even expressing intentions to acquire Greenland, seize control of the Panama Canal, and annex Canada.

Furthermore, the U.S. government declared that it would impose the so-called “reciprocal
tariffs” on all countries and regions starting April 2 this year. This tariff war directly contravenes the principles of free trade andmost-favored-nation treatment, which the United States once endorsedand championed, posing a severe threat to the world trade order. Faced with these unprecedented challenges, humanity must drawupon historical
wisdom, and calmly evaluate the contemporary international order—assessing its gains and losses as well as its realistic value fromthree dimensions. First, the contemporary international order was established 80 years ago by the major victorious countries of World War II. Through its evolution, it has achieved historic, inclusive development and attained the broadest universality. It is fundamentally different from the pre-WWII “European order.”

It does not belong to any self-proclaimed “founding states,” nor is it an appendage of any single power or bloc. Rather, it belongs to all member states of the United Nations. The central issue facing the current international order is not one of replacement, but internal reform. The continuous improvement and transformation of this order require extensive consultation, joint contribution and collaborative governance by all countries, even as major countries still need to play a significant role. Second, the contemporary international order has not yet fully achieved the purposes enshrined in the UN Charter, including the maintenance of post-war international peace and security. Nevertheless, the relative stability it provides has helped humanity avoid a third world war and enabled notable economic and social progress.

Over the past 80 years, the world population has more than tripled, reaching around 8 billion, whilethe global extreme poverty rate has fallen from 60 percent at the UN’s founding to 9 percent today. The value of the contemporary international order should be judged in light of such human progress. Third, thecontemporary international order is not only shaped by changes ininternational actors and the global landscape but also sustainedbyasystematic body of rules of international law and a comprehensivenetwork of international institutions. Among the four pillars supportingthis order, three remain relatively stable. The so-called “grave challenges”primarily stem from difficulties arising from shifts in the international landscape caused by changed major-country relations.

The crux of the issue lies in the fact that the United States, the European Union, and other
major Western powers or blocs are not yet psychologically prepared to engage as equals with China, Russia, other BRICS countries, and the broader Global South in jointly shaping global governance. NATO’s unprincipled and unrestricted “eastward expansion” has significantly contributed to geopolitical conflicts in Europe. As it is increasingly difficult for major countries to reach consensus, the efficiency of the UN-centered international system has been impeded and its authority eroded. However, this is about reforming and improving international mechanisms, not about preserving or dismantling the international order.

In the face of challenges to the contemporary international order, we should recognize three major trends in global development. First, multipolarity is flourishing. The continuous progress of humanityisboth natural and unstoppable. The world cannot persist in a stage of
single power dominance, nor can it revert to the “one superpower with multiple major powers” configuration favored by the United States. Instead, a quartet of China, the United States, Russia, and Europe willn become key forces shaping the future evolution of the international order. Second, economic globalization will not be reversed despite the setbacks it has encountered. The global market, the very foundation of economic globalization, has taken shape and is here to stay. The U.S. tariff war is only a temporary phenomenon. The principle of free trade will not be replaced, and the global trading system will not unravel. Third, globally, support for multilateralism remains the prevailing trend. While the United States pursues an “America First” policy and downplays the role of the UN, it cannot go it alone and entirely avoid multilateral cooperation.

With the contemporary international order confronting grave challenges, countries, especially major countries, should attach great importancetothe vital role of this order in addressing three critical global issues. First, prevention of nuclear war. The five nuclear-weapon states shouldcontinue to uphold the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races issued on January 3, 2022, shoulder their responsibility of “the avoidance of war between Nuclear-Weapon States and the reduction of strategic risks” and work together to uphold the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons regime.

Second, response to global climate change. All countries, particularly the G20 members whoare the main sources of global greenhouse gas emissions, should enhance their respective climate actions in accordance with the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the ParisAgreement, so that the world can achieve carbon neutrality by the middleof this century. Third, global governance of artificial intelligence. All countries should prioritize delivering on the commitments outlined in the United Nations Pact for the Future and its annex the Global Digital Compact, create an inclusive, open, sustainable, fair, safe, andsecuredigital future for all, and promote the establishment of an inclusiveandfair multilateral global digital governance system. Both historical experience and projections for the future indicate that without an effective international order to address these three major challenges, humanity will either risk self-destruction or descend into an era governed by the rule of the jungle.

Based on the above assessment, the following conclusions can be drawn:
First, the contemporary international order is facing severe challenges andrequires repair and improvement. Second, reshaping this order dependson consensus among major countries. Until relevant major countriesreturn to multilateralism, all parties should make joint efforts to safeguardthe existing system and revitalize it by improving major-country coordination. Third, an incremental approach may be adopted, starting with reform of the global governance system, so as to jointly build a brighter future for the international order.

Shaping the Reform and Improvement of the Global Governance System with Greater Confidence, and Jointly Building a Community with a Shared Future for Humanity

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus Meeting held on September 1 this year, President Xi Jinping proposed the Global Governance Initiative, which demonstrates China’s role as anindispensable and key force in global governance. It charts the coursefor nations to accurately perceive and proactively respond to the profoundchanges unseen in a century. In the years to come, the world will inevitably continue to ofacetransformations in the international landscape, particularly the adjustments and changes in major-country relations. Yet, we should stay optimistic in this process. We hope that major countries will work together to foster a framework featuring peaceful coexistence, overall stability and balanced development, and make continued efforts tomaintain a relatively peaceful and stable international order for all. Rather than passively waiting, countries must seize the opportunity of the 80th anniversary of the UN to actively promote the reformof the global
governance system.

In September 2024, the UN convened its first “Summit of the Future” and adopted the Pact for the Future, which recommended 19 actions on reforming the global governance system. On the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the UN, Secretary-General António Guterres launched the UN 80 Initiative, formally commencing reform processes across three key workstreams. We hope that this reform process will place high priority on safeguarding the UN’s core missions, enhancing its authority and effectiveness, and addressing the issue of
representation, so as to ensure that the UN systemcan provide better service and support to all nations and humanity as a whole.

At the same time, all countries must unequivocally uphold the purposesand principles of the UN Charter, safeguard the foundations of the contemporary international order, resolutely break geopolitical circles, and advocate a universally beneficial and inclusive economicglobalization and an equal and orderly multipolar world. As a major developing country, China should, while pursuing its own development, put greater emphasis on deeply engaging in the making of international rules, strengthen its leadership in global governance, and continuetopursue its national interests in the context of global interests. Chinashould join hands with other Global South countries to defend commoninterests and stay committed to working for a more just and equitableinternational order.