Wheat policy wins breathing room — but reform must follow

The government’s approval of the 2025-26 wheat policy marks an important step toward stabilising the agricultural economy, but it also reinforces a familiar pattern: short-term price interventions in place of long-term structural reform. Allowing unrestricted inter-provincial movement is a welcome correction to Punjab’s restrictive regime, which had triggered both price distortions and provincial tensions. Ensuring smooth supply flows is essential for national food security and restoring confidence among stakeholders.

Setting the procurement price at Rs3,500 per maund, aligned with international import parity, is clearly designed to placate domestic producers while avoiding an explicit subsidy that may draw scrutiny from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Nonetheless, the creation of a 6.2 million-tonne strategic reserve by federal and provincial authorities represents a significant fiscal commitment at a time when Pakistan remains under pressure to restrain quasi-fiscal support to major sectors.

The IMF has repeatedly urged Islamabad to wean farmers off guaranteed pricing mechanisms that distort markets, create rent-seeking behaviour and lead to ballooning government stocks that often deteriorate before reaching consumers. Continuing to rely on high procurement prices without simultaneously improving farmer productivity risks embedding inefficiency deeper into the sector. While political expediency may justify support ahead of harvest cycles, the broader question remains unanswered: how long can Pakistan afford to subsidise inefficiency rather than modernise it?

The answer lies in rethinking agricultural support from price guarantees to productivity enhancement. Rather than repeatedly leaning on procurement prices to reassure farmers, the government must focus on policies that help farmers compete globally without perpetual support. This demands access to affordable agricultural financing for mechanisation, improved seed technology, irrigation efficiency and value-chain integration. Crop insurance schemes that protect farmers from natural disasters — now occurring with greater frequency due to climate change — would reduce their dependence on procurement safety nets.

Moreover, strategic reserves should be sized based on realistic consumption and emergency needs rather than becoming quasi-permanent warehouses of political comfort. Weekly monitoring by a dedicated national food security committee is a good start, but oversight must translate into actionable targets for efficiency, including reductions in post-harvest losses and more competitive grain storage systems.

Pakistan cannot aspire to become an export-oriented agricultural economy while tethering its farmers to outdated support models. A modern, technology-driven, financially inclusive farm sector is the only viable alternative to recurrent procurement-led relief measures. The newly announced policy may prevent shortages and calm markets in the short term, but the true measure of success will be whether it serves as a bridge toward reform rather than another cycle of fiscal strain.

The government has bought itself time. It must now use it to build competitiveness rather than comfort.