ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has accused India of deliberately altering the flow of the Chenab River — one of the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty — following the suspension of the agreement by New Delhi last month.
The alleged tampering has sparked renewed fears over regional water security and prompted Islamabad to warn that such actions would be considered “an act of war.”
India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty following a deadly attack in Indian-occupied Kashmir on April 22 that killed 26 people. The river, which originates in Indian-administered territory, is vital to Pakistan’s agriculture and water needs, particularly in the populous province of Punjab.
“We have witnessed changes in the river (Chenab) which are not natural at all,” said Kazim Pirzada, Irrigation Minister for Punjab province, while speaking to local media. “One day the river had normal inflow and the next day it was greatly reduced.”
Punjab, which borders India and is home to nearly half of Pakistan’s 240 million people, is considered the country’s agricultural heartland. Pirzada warned that any disruption in the flow of the Chenab would have devastating consequences for millions. “The majority impact will be felt in areas which have fewer alternate water routes,” he said.
According to the Jinnah Institute, a think tank headed by a former Pakistani climate change minister, large quantities of water were released into Azad Kashmir by India on April 26. The timing and volume of the release, following an apparent 24-hour stoppage, have raised concerns of deliberate manipulation.
“This is being done so that we don’t get to utilise the water,” Pirzada added.
An Indian official, speaking to The Indian Express, acknowledged that the sluice spillway gates on the Baglihar Dam in Indian-occupied Kashmir had been lowered to restrict water flow. The move was described as a “short-term punitive action”, raising concerns about the use of transboundary water resources as a political tool.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, grants Pakistan rights over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — while allowing India limited, non-consumptive use of their waters.
It prohibits India from altering downstream flows or diverting watercourses that would reduce water availability to Pakistan. Though the treaty has withstood several wars, its recent suspension by India represents an unprecedented shift.
Tensions escalated further when, after the initial water blockade, India suddenly released 28,000 cusecs of water into the Chenab River, causing a sharp rise in water levels at Head Marala in Pakistan. Irrigation authorities raised alarms over potential flooding, warning that water levels were expected to increase overnight. Local administrations were placed on high alert.
“Experts warned that such a sudden release could lead to dangerous flooding,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) responded by increasing surveillance of real-time river inflows and outflows to mitigate any emerging risks. The erratic water management, officials say, violates treaty norms and heightens the possibility of disaster during the ongoing dry season.
On the Indian side, fluctuating water levels were also observed. In Akhnoor, Indian-administered Kashmir, authorities issued flood alerts and evacuated riverside residents due to fears of surging currents. Just a day prior, the river had run so low that residents were reportedly able to cross it on foot — a dramatic display of the volatility in flow.
Pakistan maintains that India’s actions are a deliberate attempt to exert pressure and undermine its agricultural and hydrological stability. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan … will be considered as an act of war,” Pakistan’s Foreign Office warned earlier, following the treaty’s suspension.
