Seventy-eight years after independence, Pakistan’s grand strategic ledger can be summed up in just one entry: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Not our brainchild, but a spoke in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, it serves China’s ambitions more than our own. For a country that once dreamed of leading the Muslim world and linking South and Central Asia, this is not progress. It is proof of how far we have drifted from any real vision.
Consider, for example, the CASA-1000 Project. This ambitious plan was designed to transmit 1,300 MW of surplus hydropower from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, passing through Uzbekistan and Afghanistan before reaching Pakistan. The project, launched in 2020 amid significant publicity, was framed as a milestone in regional energy cooperation, signalling a step towards greater economic integration between Central Asia and South Asia. It carried the promise of not just addressing Pakistan’s chronic energy shortages but also positioning the country as an integral part of a broader transnational energy grid. Yet, four years later, it has become practically invisible, reduced to a forgotten entry in policy archives. Bureaucratic inertia, shifting political priorities, and a lack of sustained diplomatic engagement have collectively ensured that another grand regional initiative has been swallowed by the slow, grinding machinery of neglect.
The story of the TAPI gas pipeline is not much different. Conceived to carry natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan into India, it was brokered under the facilitation of the Asian Development Bank and hailed as a cornerstone for regional integration. It had the potential to bring much-needed energy resources, strengthen economic ties, and encourage cooperative stability among historically divided neighbors. Yet, of the four planned segments, only Turkmenistan’s portion stands completed. The rest languishes in uncertainty. Islamabad’s response has been one of passivity showing neither the political will to accelerate its completion nor a coherent strategy to address the obstacles stalling it. This is not simply a missed opportunity; it is a reflection of our inability to translate geographic advantage into economic gain.
This pattern of inaction is especially alarming given the intensification of what The New York Times in 1996 famously called the “New Great Game.” Central Asia, once seen as a peripheral geopolitical arena, has now become a pivotal node in global energy networks, trade corridors, and strategic competition. China, Russia, the USA, and increasingly India are vying for influence in the region. Pakistan, by virtue of its location, should have been at the centre of these dynamics. Yet, despite being geographically adjacent to these energy-rich republics, we have failed to establish ourselves as a reliable economic or strategic partner. What could have been a geopolitical gift has instead become an untapped resource, overlooked in our narrow, reactive approach to foreign policy.
The Iran-Pakistan Peace Pipeline is another telling case. Iran has already completed its portion of the project, investing significant resources to lay the groundwork for a cross-border energy partnership. Pakistan’s part, however, remains incomplete, with progress repeatedly delayed under the combined weight of US sanctions pressure and domestic indecision. In 2024, Tehran’s patience ran thin, and it threatened to take the matter to the International Court of Arbitration. Such a move would not only highlight our inability to honor bilateral commitments but would also deepen the perception of Pakistan as an unreliable energy partner. This is a diplomatic embarrassment we should have worked to avoid, but instead, we have allowed it to become yet another example of our chronic indecisiveness.
Seventy-eight years after independence, Pakistan finds itself at a crossroads. The choice before us is stark: we can continue as passive observers in a rapidly transforming regional order, or we can commit to crafting an independent, forward-looking strategy that leverages our geography for our own economic and political benefit. Without such a shift, our future will not be defined by the projects we successfully complete or the partnerships we cultivate, but rather by the long list of opportunities we fail to even attempt.
Amid these unresolved energy ventures, Islamabad’s recent flirtation with the idea of crypto-mining partnerships with the USA seems less like a serious economic pivot and more like a political talking point. Our history of announcing ambitious projects without the institutional capacity or long-term follow-through suggests that such ventures are far more likely to evaporate than materialize. The old adage remains painfully relevant: “What we have learnt from history is that we never learn from history.”
On the strategic front, our room to maneuver is narrowing at an alarming rate. Pakistan is not part of BRICS, the rapidly expanding economic bloc that now accounts for a significant share of global GDP and is increasingly shaping the future of trade and development financing outside Western frameworks. India’s Act East Policy, initiated in 2012, has deepened its integration with ASEAN economies and strengthened security partnerships across East Asia, while leaving Pakistan excluded from emerging regional supply chains. If New Delhi were to further revise its policy towards the Indian Ocean Rim Association, our maritime trade routes could face additional strategic restrictions, effectively tightening a noose around our sea-based economic lifelines.
In the Middle East, the regional diplomatic order is shifting. Arab states are moving towards normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords, reshaping traditional alliances and potentially altering the balance of influence in the Muslim world. Even historically close partners such as Kazakhstan, which imports our locally assembled JF-17 fighter jets, and Turkey are gradually adopting more flexible positions towards Tel Aviv. Afghanistan remains unstable and unreliable as a trade and security partner. Iran, meanwhile, faces deepening international isolation and has had occasional military tensions with us, such as last year’s cross-border skirmishes.
All of this leaves Pakistan with one major and consistent ally, China. While the partnership with Beijing remains central to our economic and security strategies, it is not immune to the turbulence of global politics. The delicate balancing act Islamabad must perform between deepening US engagement and maintaining Chinese trust is becoming increasingly precarious. Even the much-celebrated CPEC, now entering its second phase, is exposed to vulnerabilities from regional instability, shifting geopolitical alignments, and global power competition.
Seventy-eight years after independence, Pakistan finds itself at a crossroads. The choice before us is stark: we can continue as passive observers in a rapidly transforming regional order, or we can commit to crafting an independent, forward-looking strategy that leverages our geography for our own economic and political benefit. Without such a shift, our future will not be defined by the projects we successfully complete or the partnerships we cultivate, but rather by the long list of opportunities we fail to even attempt.
