Every war comes with its own consequences to the world but few are able to reshape the international arena. The recent 12-day, an asymmetric war between Iran & Israel is one of them as its drawing global attention but missing silent and rising significance of Central Asia. War itself, anywhere in a world is catastrophic but when the immediate neighbor has become a war theater of a multiple times bigger enemies then the future and peace of the region is definitely very unpredictable and at risk and due to its geographical proximity with Iran, Central Asia is in great jeopardized position.
Central Asia is engaged with both Iran and Israel. The land locked geography of Central Asia makes Iran a gateway of global trade for them because of its sea ports and the trade cooperation on energy resources like exports of natural gas which constitutes a prominent economic ratio of few Central Asian states ensuring the intertwined economies. While Israel is cooperating in technological sphere offering its services in fields of defense systems, cyber security, and in agriculture sector. Whereas, this military escalation is not just an external crisis for Central Asia but multi-dimensional with direct economic, political and security repercussions. It also exposed the vulnerability of Central Asia’s regional relation and trade as the transport and energy corridors heavily disrupted. The insecure transit routes specially the development of North South Transit Corridor and Chahbahar port which is developed with India to have an alternate option of routes free of Chinese and Russian influence, is at great risk. The porous borders of Central Asian states with Iran also raise concerns about the influx of refugees and migrants resulting from the Iran–Israel war. This movement could lead to new challenges and resource-based conflicts in Central Asia, especially as over 2,000 people crossed the Iran–Turkmenistan border within just 12 days. The risk of external radicalization is further heightened, particularly for countries with large youth populations and fragile economies, given their proximity to Iran should the conflict escalate further.
All these circumstances placed Central Asian States to a crucial decisive point and demands a very careful tread. As the new events, narratives and positions are being unfold in the world, it’s a need of time for Central Asia to understand the long-term strategic goal behind this war; the expansionism, based on religious nationalism. While Iran’s nuclear program was the stated reason for the attacks by Israel and later the United States, the true motive lay in the identity of those who controlled the nuclear program.
The relations of Israel with Central Asian states are also very tactical. After Iran, Central Asia would become the next focus. To avoid the victimization of expansionism that is followed by religious nationalism. For Central Asia to enjoy lasting prosperity and meaningful cooperation, it must pursue an independent foreign policy which should be rooted in full control over its territory and national identity. In the aftermath of the historic and unprecedented strikes of United States in the Middle East, actions that extended well beyond its alliance with Israel, there is a pressing need to strengthen regional cooperation frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. As a region marked by underdevelopment, poverty, and political fragmentation, Central Asia remains vulnerable to the spillover of radicalized ideologies, which must be tackled through timely by preemptive measures. Central Asia may seem as silent region but it sits strategically with a broader geopolitical landscape. The unscathed ceasefire is equally important to central Asia as it for warring states. Only those states would thrive the upcoming big unfolding events of the world who are able to far see the dynamics and take the right measures at very right time. Although its yet to be seen, which way things turn out for Central Asia.
The evolving security and economic contours of Central Asia are no longer defined by mere proximity of global powers, but by the region’s capacity to reimagine itself beyond its post-Soviet inertia. While external actors continue to pursue influence, that remains striking is how regional states must now question whether alignment is a strategy or a substitution for one. The crisis in the Middle East serves not only as a cautionary tale of failed external patronage but as a mirror reflecting what happens when local agency is compromised. The task before Central Asia is not to choose sides in a shifting global chessboard, but to stop being pieces on it. Real power lies in building cooperative security architectures that are not reactive to others’ rivalries but proactive in protecting regional interests; ideologically economically, and strategically. The regions relevance will not be measured by its utility to others, but by its ability to act collectively, resist instrumentalization, and offer an indigenous alternative to dependency masquerading as diplomacy.
