NEW DELHI: India is expected to receive above-average monsoon rains for a second consecutive year, the government announced on Tuesday, maintaining its earlier forecast issued in April.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projected rainfall at 106% of the long-term average during the June to September season. Average rainfall, according to the IMD, ranges between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm.
M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said central and southern India are likely to witness above-average rainfall, while southwestern regions may receive average levels and northeastern states could see below-average rains. He also stated that June alone is expected to bring 108% of the long-term average rainfall.
The monsoon, which typically begins in Kerala around June 1, arrived on the state’s coast on Saturday—eight days earlier than usual—marking its earliest onset in 16 years. It quickly progressed to cover much of the west coast, including Mumbai, nearly two weeks ahead of schedule.
Monsoon rains account for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and are critical for crop cultivation, particularly in regions lacking irrigation. Nearly half of India’s farmland depends on monsoon rains to grow water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane.
A New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house noted that better pre-monsoon rainfall has already improved soil moisture levels. The latest IMD forecast, he said, is likely to further boost farmers’ confidence.
Following above-average rainfall in 2024, India had eased export restrictions on rice and onions, though sugar exports were limited to 1 million tons. With similar conditions expected this year, experts believe the country could produce more rice and sugar and increase its exports accordingly.
India remains the world’s largest rice and onion exporter and the second-largest sugar producer.
