The contours of the coming budget are beginning to take shape, with a prediction that the budget will actually be lower than the one presented last year. One estimate is that the budget will of a volume of Rs 16.9 trillion, down Rs 2 billion from the Rs 18.9 billion budgeted last year. This is because the interest declined over the fiscal year from 22 percent last June which were brought down to 12 percent at present. In the fiscal year nearing completion, debt servicing came down to Rs 8.5 trillion even though Rs 9.8 trillion had been budgeted. One of the effects od the high debt servicing last year was that high State Bank of Pakistan profits were recorded, which were given to the government last year, which made the budget figures that much better. With the interest coming down, extraordinary profits should not be expected.
Both the Finance Minister and the Planning Minister have said that a higher provision will have to be made for defence. This is not to pay for extra expenses that have been incurred, but to provide for deficiencies that still exist. No new divisions are being raised, or tanks or planes being acquired, but recruitments in all services have to be made keeping in view the need to ensure existing units are up to strength. While tanks or planes (or jeeps or frigates) may not be acquired, spare parts must be on hand, and fuel has to be made available, for without it all three services would grind to a sudden halt. Our pilots did us proud when downing Indian planes; that was only possible because the fuel was there to put the planes in the sky.
While it must be grasped that national security is as much a condition of economic prosperity as political stability, there should be no throwing out the baby with the bathwater. While it is a given that the coming budget must be one in which the buds of prosperity, the signs of recovery, must not be squeezed out. The recent Indian shenanigans at the IMF in trying to get the Pakistani programme cancelled, show how deeply India is committed to throwing Pakistan off-balance economically. The Finance Minister will have to find means to ensure that India does not get the satisfaction of succeeding.
