As agreed on Saturday, the Directors General of Military Operations of India and Pakistan got in touch on Monday morning, and talked of how the ceasefire between the two countries was still holding up. A significant measure agreed by the DGs was the reduction of troops on the borders, which means that units which had moved up during the recent confrontation would move back to peacetime locations. Another sign of normalcy was the rise of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, which headed towards recovering its losses since the threat of an Indo-Pak conflict arose. The benchmark KSE100 index rose 10,123 points, its largest single one-day rise.
The stakes were defined by US President Donald Trump, who said that the USA had prevented “a bad nuclear war”. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to throw the blame on Pakistan for this by saying that India would accept no further nuclear blackmail, and saying that the new normal was going to be India responding to terrorism as it did. The problem he did not address is that there was no evidence presented. The world did not accept Indian claims this time. It could be claimed as a failure of Indian diplomacy, or it could be said that the Indian claims were so far from reality, that no one, even with the best will in the world, could accept them. Mr Modi tried to play as if he had a strong hand, saying that India would not accept any talks except over that part of Kashmir in Pakistan’s hands, and terrorism. Pakistani Defence Minister Khwaja Asif also outlined an agenda, including water resources, apart from the whole of Kashmir. If Mr Modi’s misadventure has achieved anything, it has been to bring back the settled issue of the Indus Waters Basin to the negotiating table.
That is hardly a gain, for the accompanying situation has left India unable to make further inroads on water resources. Mr Modi should realize that the water issue is an emotive one for a country so heavily dependent on agriculture. The Kashmir issue has such widespread and strong support throughout the country because of the Indus Waters. Mr Modi would do better to concert measures with Pakistan on how to raise the people of the region from the grinding poverty they face. But for that, all outstanding issues, such as Kashmir, must be cleared out of the way. Or does Mr Modi lack the statesmanship for that?
