The Russo-Ukrainian conflict rages on

The path to peace is not easy

The war between Russia and Ukraine is one of the most important issues to come to the United Nations Security Council’s agenda in recent years. It poses a serious threat to regional and international stability and escalates humanitarian crises.

Since February 2014, there has been a war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia started hostilities soon after Ukraine’s Revolution for Dignity, and they were centered on the political status of Crimea and the Donbas, which are still seen as being a part of Ukraine internationally.

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 by Russia was quickly followed by the start of the Donbas conflict between separatists backed by Russia against Ukrainian state forces. Fighting also included naval incidents, cyber attacks, and heightened political tensions.

Due to a Russian military buildup encircling Ukrainian territory, bilateral tensions increased in 2021. On February 24, the war significantly escalated when Russia invaded mainland Ukraine. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is having a significant influence on the world’s supply chain, obstructing the movement of commodities, causing severe food shortages, sharp price hikes and product shortages globally.

The core of the Russia-Ukraine conflict lies in three issues: Ukraine’s NATO membership, . territorial disputes in Crimea and the eastern part of Ukraine, and Russia’s security claims. But there is a list of long-simmering disputes and grievances that both countries have towards each other.

The conflict in Ukraine is a concentrated manifestation of the development and worsening of the contradictions in bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine since the crisis in Ukraine in 2014. With the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine declared its independence in 1991 along with 15 other newly founded Republics. But this separation did not change the geostrategic importance of Ukraine for Russia. Both Russia and Ukraine were still at odds with each other, particularly over the control of the Black Sea and the Crimean Peninsula on the Black Sea. On the east side of Ukraine was the Russian giant and on its west were the three states namely, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary; all of them post-communist states which joined the European Union. Being pro-Russian or pro-European became a defining line in Ukrainian politics.

By 1997, Russia recognized Ukrainian borders with the aid of a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv, Leonid Kuchma. However, he did not last long and a pro-western candidate, Victor Yushchenko, won elections in 2001 and again in 2004 as a result of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution. However, an economic crisis, the gradual disintegration of the opposition, and Russian-induced natural gas pressure led to protests and eventually Yushchenko’s demise. In 2010, Victor Yanukovych was elected to power, as a pro-Russian. And soon in 2013, he made a decision of utmost impact; he did not sign the Ukrainian association agreement with the EU*under Russia’s pressure. It was followed by another revolution. More than a hundred protestors were killed and Yanukovych fled to Russia. The interim government after this pro-Western revolution signed a trade agreement with the EU seen as the first step toward membership.

The protracted crisis has severely harmed Ukraine’s economy, which is actually the main driver behind most people’s desire to join the EU. The prosperity of the nation’s economy may be a theme. Cyber-attacks are a major problem that Ukraine also faces. Despite the Russian Federation’s repeated denials of these allegations, this problem needs to be resolved. Instead of making broad allegations or condemnations, there should be provisions addressing cyber-attacks and cyber terrorism in general. Finally, as there have been thousands of deaths since the crisis began, UN institutions, particularly those concentrating on human rights, should be involved.

In March 2014, a month after this, Russia annexed Crimea. In April 2014 secessionists in eastern Ukraine, backed by Russia, later declared themselves independent, as the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. They went to war against Ukraine. The secessionist war continues in the Donbas. Roughly 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians eventually died in the conflict. The front lines have barely shifted for years.

By February 2015 Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany signed a series of cease-fire agreements known as the Minsk Accords or Minsk Agreements (I and II). They were frail agreements and remained unimplemented from both sides. Again in 2017, a pro-Western party headed by Petro Poroshenko won the elections and thus Ukraine resigned from an association agreement with the European Union in the same year. Later in April 2019, a former comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, was elected by a large majority as president of Ukraine on a promise to make peace with Russia and win back the Donbas.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia sought to prevent Ukraine’s drift toward the USA and its allies. Mr. Putin demands “security guarantees,” including an assurance by NATO that Ukraine will never join the group and that the alliance pulls back troops stationed in countries that joined after 1997.

“If Russia Stops fighting, the war ends. But if Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends”, is the stance of the US and its allies on the Russian-Ukraine Conflict. Putin, who gave a speech laying out a long list of grievances as justification for the special military operation, feels “war can only stop if Ukraine stops fighting”. He continues calling this war a special military operation as a counter-offensive to NATO’s eastward expansion. By incorporating the four areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia into Russia,

Moscow could portray attempts to retake them as attacks on Russia itself, a warning to Kyiv and its Western allies. The Russian annexations raise the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the NATO military alliance as Western arms are being used by Ukrainian troops. The schism keeps getting deeper with the probability of a new world war and nuclear entanglements being openly discussed.

On February 26, Russia blocked a Security Council Resolution that would have demanded that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops from Ukraine.

On March 3, the UN General Assembly demanded Russia stop its offensive in Ukraine, voting 141 to five with 35 abstentions. Member nations voted during the 11th emergency special session of the 193-member UN General Assembly on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It condemned the February 24 ‘special military operation’ by Russia over Ukraine.

On April 7, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for Russia to be suspended from the Human Rights Council. The resolution received a two-thirds majority of those voting. In the 193-member Assembly, 93 nations voted in favor and 24 against.

Russia has no choice but to launch special military operations in Ukraine.” Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of the Russian Federation addresses the General Assembly on September 7.

Russia vetoed the UNSC resolution condemning Russia’s proclaimed annexation of regions of Ukraine on September 30.

The USA, the EU, and allies have imposed various sanctions against Russia. They are aimed to hit Russia’s financial, energy and transport sectors, and include export controls and trade financing bans.

The US has targeted over 1000 Russians, including 278 Duma members for enabling the referendums to annex the regions of Ukraine and 14 people connected to its defense industries. These include financial sanctions such as removing major Russian banks from the International Financial Messaging System Swift, and the USA holding foreign money from Russia in US banks. By doing so, it has barred Russia from making its debt payments using foreign money and has delayed its payments for oil and gas exports.

The EU is taking measures to stop importing Russian oil, and refined oil products soon and has already stopped importing Russian coal. The US is banning all Russian oil and gas imports. EU and G7 countries also want to cap the prices of Russian oil.

A ban has been imposed on all Russian flights from US, UK, EU, and Canadian airspace. The UK has stopped selling “golden visas” which allowed wealthy Russians to get British residency rights in exchange for an investment. It has also introduced strict financial sanctions on Russia as well. But it has not imposed any ban on Russian gas because it relies on it for about 40 percent of its gas needs. The export of dual-use goods and high-tech components to Russia has also been banned as has the import of Russian gold. Russia exported $15.4 billion worth of gold in 2021. Russian flights have been banned in most European airspace. Japan has imposed an unprecedented level of economic sanctions against Russia.

Germany, being a G7 member, has also imposed strict sanctions on Russia but being the biggest importer of Russian gas in Europe, has its own reservations. Nonetheless, it has frozen plans for the opening of the Nordstrom 2 gas pipeline from Russia. But it is against the EU’s and G7’s aims to cap Russian oil and gas prices.

Although the ideas for solutions will be parallel with the policies of those submitting them, there must be a common topic: peace in the region. There are numerous ways to accomplish this. First, there has been much debate on the potential involvement of UN peacekeepers for a long time. However, UN peacekeepers have historically been contentious, therefore those who include them should come up with solid arguments in support.

The protracted crisis has severely harmed Ukraine’s economy, which is actually the main driver behind most people’s desire to join the EU. The prosperity of the nation’s economy may be a theme. Cyber-attacks are a major problem that Ukraine also faces. Despite the Russian Federation’s repeated denials of these allegations, this problem needs to be resolved. Instead of making broad allegations or condemnations, there should be provisions addressing cyber-attacks and cyber terrorism in general. Finally, as there have been thousands of deaths since the crisis began, UN institutions, particularly those concentrating on human rights, should be involved.

Eman Mudassar Tarar
Eman Mudassar Tarar
The writer can be reached at [email protected]

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