ISLAMABAD: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that most of South Asia will experience above-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures during the upcoming southwest monsoon season, expected from June to September. This prediction was made after a collaborative effort involving the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of nine South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
The forecast, based on a thorough assessment of prevailing global climate conditions, indicates that neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which typically influences the monsoon season. The WMO also noted that significantly low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere earlier this year contributed to the forecast, as there is an inverse relationship between snow cover and monsoon rainfall.
In Pakistan, the Met Office warned of a heatwave, particularly in southern Punjab and Sindh, due to high temperatures. It also raised concerns about the possibility of flash floods in the second half of the monsoon season, which could result from heavy rainfall. The forecast also predicts above-normal rainfall in central to southern Pakistan, especially in northeastern Punjab, which could help alleviate soil moisture deficiencies in drought-affected areas.
However, the Pakistan Meteorological Department cautioned that the elevated temperatures in northern areas could accelerate snowmelt, raising river water levels. While the forecast suggests overall normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, the potential for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and flash flooding, remains high.
The WMO emphasized the importance of advance monsoon information for better planning in agriculture, energy, public health, and risk management sectors to mitigate the impacts of these weather patterns.
