On September 11, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a historic defence pact in the presence of Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif amd COAS Field Marshal Asim Munir. What was a narrative initially concocted during the Pahalgam incident, designed to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and strategically, has instead evolved into a decisive strategic victory for Pakistan. After decades of external pressures and internal political, security, and economic challenges, Pakistan is repositioning itself not just as a marginal actor but as a pivotal force in the international arena. Whether the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or the Arab Islamic Summit, or this latest defence accord between two brotherly Muslim nations, Pakistan is being widely recognized as a stabilizing agent in the region. This historic shift in Pakistan’s diplomatic mechanism is not mere ceremonial, rather it reflects Pakistan’s growing ability to navigate the complexities of global politics, recalibrate its diplomacy, and reclaim its role in international politics as a balancing power in a world in perpetual conflict.
There is little that is novel in the recent Strategic Mutual defence Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Both states have long sustained a mutual strategic partnership, including joint military training, exercises, and defence cooperation well before the formalization of defence relations. Presently, an estimated 1500-2000 Pakistan military personnel are playing their roles in Saudi Arabia in advisor, trainer, and security provider positions. Over the decades, Pakistan has trained nearly 8000-10,000 Saudi military personnel and has periodically stationed units in the Kingdom to intensify defence cooperation. Nevertheless, while this pact has created unlimited opportunities for Pakistan, it simultaneously engenders a series of repercussions that may cause perilous effects on Pakistan in the long run.
Entering into a defence agreement with one country inevitably exposes the country to complex and challenging strategic complexities. In the international arena, diplomacy and prudence demand strategic manoeuvring rather than explicitly revealing your foreign policy agendas. Yet Pakistan, by pledging unequivocal military and diplomatic support to Saudi Arabia, has exposed its regional agenda, a move that risks diplomatic isolation. The challenging dilemma emerges if tensions between Riyadh and Tehran escalate: Pakistan, while tacitly endorsing Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program despite sanctions, has simultaneously aligned itself with Tehran’s rival. So, these contradictory alignments in the “craze” of diplomacy will require Islamabad to walk a more precarious strategic tightrope, testing the very resilience of its foreign policy framework.
Moreover, Pakistan itself grapples with both internal and external security predicaments, ranging from the Baloch insurgency to cross-border terrorism emanating from western border with Afghanistan. Entering into an expansive defence pact, already scrambling Islamabad, maybe proved as entangling for itself. This defence pact can be proved as entangling for Islamabad in extraneous conflicts, be it Yemen’s civil war, a prospective Saudi-Iran confrontation, or Saudi’s potential clashes with rogue and irresponsible Israel. Militarily aligning with Riyadh implies a quasi-collective defence agreement, where “attack on one state would be considered as an attack on both”.
Such an involvement in external conflicts, for the sake of diplomacy, risk overextending Pakistan’s strategic bandwidth. A state already plagued by various internal and external security, political, and economic challenges cannot afford the burden of direct or even peripheral involvement in a volatile international theater.
In the longer horizon, firstly, Pakistan must recalibrate its foreign policy to reduce strategic vulnerabilities that Pakistan may face after this alignment with Riyadh. Building on established partnerships with non-Gulf nations including China (Pakistan’s iron-clad partner), Turkey, and Azerbaijan, Islamabad must prioritize multilateralism and diversify its diplomatic, economic, and military engagements.
Deeper military cooperation with Riyadh risks unsettling Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, inviting more complexities for Pakistan in the global arena. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has long been officially declared as India-centric. However, any semblance of extended deterrence or nuclear umbrella to Riyadh would erode Islamabad’s credibility within the global politics and potentially invite forms of sanctions from major powers already unhappy with Pakistan’s nuclear programme. Such commitments expose guarantor states to entanglements in both regional and global conflicts and danger of potential escalation into wider wars. In this alliance-oriented global political scenario, Pakistan would face severe domestic criticism, reputational damage, and the strategic defeat which would make New-Delhi comfortable.
By signing a defence agreement with Saudi Arabic, Pakistan has unintentionally created strategic openings for its long-term adversary, India, calibrating the regional balance to its advantages. Leveraging its deepest economic ties, soft power diplomacy, and energy dependency with the Gulf states, New Delhi can frame the pact as a destabilizing arrangement and simultaneously consolidate its partnerships in the region. India’s substantial investment leverage across the Gulf may further dilute Islamabad’s ambitions, in the Gulf region, after the pact. Simultaneously, Gulf states may perceive Pakistan’s military-centric posture as a liability, whereas India’s image of soft power and economic stability can render New Delhi the more attractive and reliable ally.
In this volatile global scenario, Pakistan must pursue immediate measures to protect its strategic posture and current diplomatic momentum. For this, Islamabad must dispatch a high-level delegation, including senior officials both civilian and military to the Gulf capitals, to reassure partners of its benign intentions and simultaneously underscore its willingness to broaden its economic ties to counterweight New Delhi. Equally important is the need for Pakistan to issue a precise statement for clarification about its nuclear doctrine that remains India-centric. Such clarity would preempt misconceptions, misinterpretations, mitigate risks of sanctions, and forestall diplomatic isolation on the global stage.
In the longer horizon, firstly, Pakistan must recalibrate its foreign policy to reduce strategic vulnerabilities that Pakistan may face after this alignment with Riyadh. Building on established partnerships with non-Gulf nations including China (Pakistan’s iron-clad partner), Turkey, and Azerbaijan, Islamabad must prioritize multilateralism and diversify its diplomatic, economic, and military engagements. Multilateralism will not only mitigate over-dependence on a single country but strengthen Pakistan’s image and credibility while countering Indian influence in the Arab world. Secondly, it is also imperative for Pakistan to pursue quiet and calibrated diplomacy between Tehran and Riyadh. Pakistan must adopt a proactive approach with prudence and foresight: celebrating new alignments with restraint, acting with strategic logic rather than emotional gratification and proactively safeguarding its national interest.
