Pope Francis I once said, “God always forgives, man sometimes forgives, but nature never forgives.”
These words have proven to be a gospel truth today, as the world is reaping the harvest it has sown in the recent century. But the unfortunate thing is that those who are not responsible for this maltreatment of nature have to bear the brunt of the deeds of those who are. The largest carbon contributors are the countries of the Global North, including China, but the worst-hit are the poor countries of the Global South.
The claims and promises under the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement, and the COP conferences have yet to materialize. Article 10(c) of the Kyoto Protocol suggests that countries work together to develop, share, and finance environmentally friendly technologies and methods that help fight climate change. Article 9(1) of the Paris Agreement asks the developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries to combat climate change. At the COP27 conference in Egypt, developed countries were assigned to set up a loss and damage fund to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.
Therefore, without disbursing funds for loss and damage by the developed countries, the survival of the developing countries, like Pakistan, in the face of climate-induced catastrophe is at stake.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, its contribution to global carbon emissions is less than one percent; however, it is one of the countries most susceptible to climate change. The flood of 2022 lent credence to this. It caused immense economic loss to Pakistan. It rendered 33 million people homeless and caused over $30 billion in GDP losses. For the first time in the country’s history, the northern part of the country experienced glacial lake outburst floods on a larger scale. Almost 3,044 glacial lakes were formed in KP and GB; among them, 33 lakes were identified as vulnerable to outburst.
The recent onslaught of floods in Gilgit-Baltistan and KPK is not a surprise. The 2022 floods should have served as a wake-up call. According to UNDP, from 2018–21, almost 18 GLOFs occurred, 75 occurred in 2022, and 83 such events were recorded in 2023 alone. Therefore, the country should have braced itself for the upcoming events.
The GLOF II project, which started in 2017 as a continuation of the first project, has failed to prevent disasters in various areas in GB. The project was primarily focused on empowering climate-vulnerable communities to mitigate the impact of GLOFs by improving community preparedness and disaster response. The project has a target to station early warning systems in areas prone to GLOFs. The tree plantation, controlling drainage systems, and forming mini dams were also proposed.
The GLOF is not the only reason behind recent devastation in the northern part of Pakistan. Cloudbursting is another factor wreaking havoc in KP and GB. On 21 July, a heavy flood triggered by cloudbursts swept away 15 tourist vehicles in the Babusar area of GB, leaving 5 dead and 15 missing. The cloudbursting caused heavy torrential rain, which inundated KKH, leaving hundreds of tourist vehicles stranded on both sides of the highway.
Therefore, the government must declare a climate emergency in these regions. The government and its disaster management cell must station the latest early warning systems in GB and regularly use the latest satellite imagery to monitor the glacial lakes. The proper forecasting through cutting-edge technology, combined with effective planning and management, such as avoiding construction on waterways, riverbanks, and landslide-prone areas, can help thwart any untoward events in the future.
On the very next day, a heavy cloudburst caused a severe flood in Kondus, Khaplu. The flood swept 50 houses, 20 shops, and two mosques, according to local sources. In Skardu, Sadpara Nalla and Burgi Nalla also faced floods after cloudbursts. The important tourist points— Khamosh and Mantokha Waterfalls, Kharmang— were also severely damaged due to flash floods. The cloudbursts also caused heavy devastation in the Ghizer district, destroying agricultural lands and basic infrastructure.
By the end of the month, 37 villages in GB were declared disaster zones by the government of GB. The government estimated the flood caused loses of Rs 15–20 billion due to the destruction of homes, crops, and public infrastructure.
On 1 August, a flash flood caused heavy damage to crops and livestock, houses, and educational institutions in the Ishkoman area of Ghizer. The flood was so sudden that the people of the area barely managed to survive. On August 6, floodwaters from the Shisper Glacier caused severe land erosion in Hassanabad Nalla in Hunza, damaging the protection wall of the KKH. On August 8, another flood from the Shutuber Glacier destroyed water facilities, bridges, and link roads in Gojal, Hunza. On August 10, floodwater from the Shisper Glacier washed away a section of the KKH, blocking the highway for traffic. On August 11, seven people died during a water restoration effort in Danyor Nalla after a flood.
In Baltistan, the plight was no different. On August 12, a glacial flood in Horchas Nalla and Dogoro village in Shigar swept houses, caused damage to agricultural fields, and blocked the only road to K2. On August 14, in Saltoro Siachen, a flood swept away a suspension bridge that connected the village to other areas. On the same day, a flood blocked the Gilgit-Skardu road near Astak Nalla, leaving hundreds of passengers and goods vehicles stranded on both sides. At Baghicha, Roundu, floodwater washed away the bridge connecting Skardu to Roundu. The blockages caused a severe fuel shortage in Skardu. On August 16, sudden flooding injured 10 people and killed a young boy in Xhoqgo, Gulapur, Shigar. On the same day, a flash flood in Haldi, Khaplu, damaged Siachen Road. The Sarmo Bridge in Khaplu was swept away by river water after heavy rainfall, causing the water level to rise. In Hushe Valley, too, the only suspension bridge was swept away by river water.
Only recently, glacial floods have caused heavy destruction in Hunza, Astore, Nagar, Ghizer, and Gilgit. The floods blocked the KKH at many locations. A huge flood in the Raushan area of Ghizer swept away a whole village. The flood debris blocked the Ghizer River and raised the river water level, risking the adjacent villages in the face of overflow. A shepherd’s timely call saved the lives of the villagers.
All the above occurrences are the story of just a month. What comes next is out of anyone’s surmise. All we can do is brace ourselves for future events. It is a fact that climate change is a cosmopolitan issue and knows no boundaries. It is melting the glaciers in the north at an alarming pace, triggering GLOFs in GB and KP.
Therefore, the government must declare a climate emergency in these regions. The government and its disaster management cell must station the latest early warning systems in GB and regularly use the latest satellite imagery to monitor the glacial lakes. The proper forecasting through cutting-edge technology, combined with effective planning and management, such as avoiding construction on waterways, riverbanks, and landslide-prone areas, can help thwart any untoward events in the future. For us, adaptation and mitigation are our last resorts, as we have had little to no role in causing global warming. For the world, now is the time to issue a clarion call to action before things get out of hand.
