AT PENPOINT
Somehow, the Pakistan-India conflict, as well as the Israel-Palestinian problem, have “ subsumed into US President Donald Trump’s shenanigans, as if showing that two of the world’s most serious issues are merely platforms where Trump can show off his unsuitability for the high office he holds.
His saying that he had engaged in stopping a nuclear war between India and Pakistan didn’t quite mesh with his remarks about Pakistanis being wonderful people with whom it would be good to do a deal with. Regarding his mediation efforts as being rewarded by India and Pakistan coming to him for a trade deal is either very wrong thinking, or a misunderstanding of the results of a nuclear war. An Indo-Pak nuclear war would create enough of a nuclear winter to destroy agriculture around the world, and while both Pakistan and India want to negotiate with the USA over Trump’s proposed tariffs, and had both indicated a willingness to negotiate, Trump’s equating of global nuclear disaster with trade deals is a farcical minimizing of the issue.
Trump should wait to see whether the ceasefire he brokered holds. Indications are that while Pakistan remains committed to a ceasefire, India may not be. There are indications that India is smarting so hard under the blows it received from Operation Bunyanum Marsoos that its forces want to teach Pakistan a lesson. This puts the USA in more than one bind. The recent operations have damaged India severely, which means that the USA’s regional counterweight to China has been rendered nugatory. It might be noticed that, while the pilots of the PAF were Pakistani, the planes and missiles were Chinese. If a resumption of hostilities results in another thrashing for the Indian forces, where does that leave the USA? Then there is the risk of an escalation leading to nuclear war.
Trump may have an interest in making India get back its mojo, but he can’t very well ask the Pakistani forces to throw the game. Well, nothing is beyond him, but the forces might well balk at this. The other alternatives are to supply the IAF fifth-generation stealth fighters. However, that is very unlikely. India is also likely to be in the market for a missile defense system. The S500 entered service in Russia in 2021, the 550 is still planned, while the USA could provide Patriots and Israel the Iron Dome. However, not only are none of these systems off-the-shelf, they will all be prohibitively expensive.
There are reports of Indian armour massing in the Rajasthan desert, but there is no guarantee that the IAF will provide the necessary air cover for the tanks to move. This was one of the scenarios for nuclear war; for Pakistan to launch a nuclear strike on Indian massed armour. However, going by the past fortnight, Pakistan would have no need of such drastic measures. It could leave the PAF to enjoy what would be a turkey-shoot.
At the moment, it seems impossible for the Indian service chiefs, especially the air chief, to avoid being crushed between two millstones. While Modi will no doubt have many questions about promise and performance, he will now be seeking officers who will deliver. His only hope is that hard core of BJP supporters who do not care for the good of their comrades-in-arms. However, even such officers will look askance at the prospect of defeat.
If the claims of victory are to be justified, there will have to be awards given and promotions made. Wing Commander Abhinandhan still sports a gallantry award for having been shot down. Will downed Rafale pilots jostle base commanders whose Brahmos stockpiles were knocked out, or S400 battery commanders whose launchers were hit. India has set itself up to debase gallantry awards as never before in military history.
However, it may be that all this will not impress Trump, who may expect something of the success he had in the Gulf, where his three-nation trip to Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar not only brought him about $2 trillion in deals. The Gulf monarchies were the first countries Trump visited in his current term. While Israel increased pressure on Palestinians to vacate their homeland, Trump was getting money off his hosts. Indeed, he got Qatar to pay for the privilege of having him visit. It offered him a new Air Force One, which will be made by Boeing (it will be a modified 747) for $400 million. He took it, along with a $1.2 trillion ‘economic exchange’ with Qatar, which included $96 billion to Boeing for 210 jets for Qatar Airways.
Among the issues discussed was Iran’s nuclear programme, on which the USA is currently negotiating with it. If Iran was to take a cue from the current trip, it would be to offer a massive investment in the USA, anywhere from $2 trillion to $10 trillion, as well as a personal gift, maybe a pair of bunny slippers, or perhaps a mink bathrobe, and Iran would probably be allowed to build a bomb. It should be noted that Israel has already offered Trump a deal to match that, the vacation of Gaza and the building of a resort there. Therefore, its omission from this visit is not as surprising as it seems. After all, if Israel had anything to offer, say a cufflinks-and-tiepin set, it would be out of official revenues, which are bolstered by US taxpayers’ money. On the other hand, the three countries he did visit are ruled by monarchies which seem to rely on the USA to prop them up (the UAE and Qatar), or guarantee the succession to the Crown Prince (Saudi Arabia).
The Kashmir and Gaza crises continue their slow-march in tandem. Even as India tries to wriggle out of its defeat, its pal Israel’s PM announced that his country was going to take over Gaza. India already has the bulk of Kashmir. It can definitely be said that the Israeli Defense Forces have had an easier time of it than the Indian armed forces, mainly because one faced Hamas, and the other the Pakistan armed forces. Hamas forces are, after all, basically a militia, not a proper professional force. Perhaps one of the biggest differences is that Hamas has no air presence or air defense. The Pakistan Air Force was not only able to mount a defence against the (Israeli-made) Indian drones, but scramble its own planes and down Indian planes. Because of this, India could not claim command of the air, when one’s planes can fly at will and target anything they like, as the IDF could. In fact, the IAF could not claim the air superiority necessary to accompany the launching of a ground offensive.
Looking at Gaza, one would say that air command is of no use, for the IDF has failed to meet the objective of recapturing all the hostages taken in October 2023. At Kashmir, the failure of Indian air power has been even more abject. It has conceded air superiority to Pakistan, which would enable it to develop ground offensives in which the PAF would assist the ground forces in destroying enemy ground forces.
Still, that was the result of professionalism and discipline within all services, which is perhaps the reason why the COAS was selected for a promotion to field marshal. It is once once again proof that military men get their reward from a job well done, with promotions and medals serving as external symbols. However, it is also a challenge to India. There is a subtle challenge as to how it recognizes its armed forces. In principle, there should be courts martial or at least boards of enquiry, so that affected officers may be given a chance of offering a defence.
If the claims of victory are to be justified, there will have to be awards given and promotions made. Wing Commander Abhinandhan still sports a gallantry award for having been shot down. Will downed Rafale pilots jostle base commanders whose Brahmos stockpiles were knocked out, or S400 battery commanders whose launchers were hit. India has set itself up to debase gallantry awards as never before in military history.
