The Election Commission of Pakistan is still neither giving an election date itself, nor allowing anyone else to do so, but it seems that the parties have switched to election mode, and have started campaigning. The PML(N) is apparently first out of the blocks, with a bustle of activity centred around the planned return of party supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan, and the grand reception he is to be given. Just as an example of how reception activity translates into electoral, the appointment of new entrant Bashir Memon, the former FIA DG, has been followed at once by his appointment as convener of the Sindh reception, which s expected to translate into his becoming provincial chief in time for the election. At the same time, it is a golden opportunity to touch base with ticket aspirants and local party organizations. At the same time, the party lacks a single overarching narrative on which to appeal to the voter. Mian Nawaz tried to develop one by promising the accountability of those who had overthrown him, but that was hastily abandoned, indicating one of the major fault lines within the party, between Mian Nawaz who wants to pursue the anti-Army narrative of the past, and his brother Mian Shehbaz, who would like to continue the reconciliatory policy of the present.
Meanwhile, the party which originated that policy, the PPP, faces problems of its own. While it remains secure in interior Sindh, it does not seem to have its old appeal in the rest of the country. In 2018, its voters in Punjab turned to the PTI. It no longer seems certain that that option remains, not with the PTI lacking apparently the ability to fight an election after May 9, when its reaction to leader Imran Khan’s first arrest led it into shooting itself in the foot. Apart from the loss of Mr Khan, its main campaigner, the second-tier leadership is either behind bars, or on the run. The PTI was never very strong on organisation, but now it seems in so much shambles that it is in no shape to contest a general election.
The smaller parties are not in the best of shape, and are restricted to their pockets of influence. No party is at the kind of stage the PTI was in after 2013: about to break out onto the national scene. They are still aspiring to join whichever party wins, as part of a ruling coalition. All of these doubts can only be resolved by elections. Instead of events convincing the caretakers that the best they can do is leave after holding elections, they are causing the very uncertainty the elections ae supposed to end, by not even giving a date.
