That Russia would host a conference at which the USA was also represented, by no less than Special Representative on Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, should not be a surprise, even though this was the first time the USA was represented at such a regional gathering, which also brought together China, Afghan government representatives, Afghan Taliban representatives and Pakistan as well. For a start, that presence shows US desperation, which in turn shows that its own indecision over whether or not to honour the agreement made by the Trump Administration to withdraw all forces by May 1. The US presence was also an acknowledgement that the Doha talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government were not progressing. The presence was thus also an acceptance that the way forward required a multilateral approach, rather than the bilateral approach that it had favoured so far. Pakistan should also absorb the important lesson that the USA is not going to make the running with the assistance of Pakistan, but that the other powers also have a stake which must be given due weight. As all the parties are basically following their on national interests, the conference is an important acknowledgement that the peace of Afghanistan involves the peace and prosperity of the entire region.
Pakistan will need to keep the regional view in sight, because the US and Russia, for differing reasons, will be pushing for an India role. Pakistan needs to avoid any kneejerk reaction. It should remind itself that any Indian role, if it does not organically flow out of the situation, cannot be imposed by any other power. Conversely, if it has developed an interest in Afghanistan, no amount of maneuvering by Pakistan or China can serve to keep it out.
However, it should not be forgotten that India cannot impose itself, because the present multilateral approach might not satisfy individual powers as much as the original bilateral one, and it certainly cannot be used to create an interest unless one already exists. The Kabul government is understandably anxious about the interim government proposal, which the Taliban have rejected. However, the way forward requires just some such mechanism, and as a country which wants a regional settlement, Pakistan must continue its commitment to the process.
