Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi
PML-N needs to partnerships cutting across provinces The 10th general elections have proved to be a mixed blessing. It is now clear which parties enjoy popular mandate at the federal and provincial levels. The new political configuration will assume power in the first week of June, setting up a healthy tradition of transfer of power through constitutional and peaceful means from one set of civilian leadership to another. The downside is that every party is talking of manipulation of electoral process in some constituency. It seems that it has become fashionable to talk about the ‘stealing of electoral mandate.’ Even the political parties that are expected to set up new governments at the federal or provincial levels are spending a part of their energies in delegitimizing the electoral process that has set the stage for their assumption of power. Most political leaders and parties are focused on their narrow and immediate gains – how to win the election after losing it. They do not have a long term perspective. By blowing the irregularities out of proportion they are making their own mandate doubtful. If they delegitimize the democratic process in a bid to outbid each other, all of them will lose. The future of political leaders and parties is closely linked with the working of democracy. If they are unable to manage one of the basic requisite of democracy, i.e. elections, how can they manage democracy and talk about civilian primacy? This situation is very different from the situation after the 1977 general elections when the opposition coalition, Pakistan National Alliance (PNA), accused the PPP government of manipulating and rigging the elections. The inability of the government of that time and the opposition to handle the rigging issues enabled the military to assume power under General Zia-ul-Haq. In 2013, the situation is very different. It is a free-for-all situation. Every party is accusing its rival party of manipulation of elections. Even individual candidates are raising hue and cry. If the PTI is projecting itself as an aggrieved party in one place, its winning candidate in another constituency is being accused of the same charge of manipulation of the election. Even the PML-N which is going to set up the federal government and is expected to head provincial governments in the Punjab and Balochistan, is accusing the PPP of winning the election in rural Sindh by manipulation. The political parties and the leaders that are going to establish new governments at the federal or provincial levels need to discourage their party activists from resorting to protest and sit-ins on main roads as it causes a lot of problems for ordinary citizens and creates an undemocratic tradition of lack of restraint and tolerance. The new ruling parties or their coalition partners should give attention to addressing the problems that they are going to face soon. The PPP and the ANP have lost the elections because of their poor governance and non-delivery of civic services to people. The acute electric power shortages have caused much political damage to their reputation. Similarly, terrorism and law and order problems worked to their disadvantage. The new government will have to address economic issues as the highest priority. This should be accompanied by taking up of other issues. The salvation of the PML-N lies in addressing these problems rather than getting involved in the ongoing politics of electoral rigging. Pakistan faces multiple and acute problems. Therefore, the new leadership should set its priorities very clearly so that it does not waste its energy on frivolous issues that seem to have become the key issues for political parties. Even the small parties that hardly win few seats are talking of denial of their mandate. There are legal remedies available for the polling day related complaints. The Election Commission has already accommodated some complaints. More are likely to be accommodated over time. The option of election petition is available to the candidates that have lost the election. The polling-day complaints pertain to 7 to 9 percent of polling stations but the defeated candidates are trying to delegitimize the whole process which is a negative and unfortunate approach. Sindh is experiencing a dangerous political game nowadays. The PPP has retained its electoral clout in interior Sindh that has given it an over-all majority in the provincial assembly. The smaller parties and Sindhi nationalist groups that always lose the elections have decided to avail of the current wave of making hue and cry for election manipulation to delegitimize the PPP majority in Sindh. These groups are now trying to enlist the support of the PML-N for their agenda against the PPP. A good number of them have offered support to the PML-N with the expectation that the power of the PML-N federal government will be invoked in their bid to challenge the PPP in Sindh. If the PML-N leadership at the national level allowed the party to become an instrument of the small Sindhi groups for making it difficult for the PPP to rule Sindh, it will result in an unfortunate clash between the Sindh government and the federal government. The PMLN national leadership should not succumb to the pressure of the Sindh leadership of the party and others who want to ride on the bandwagon of the federal government to settle their old scores with the PPP. Another issue that needs immediate attention of the PML-N is that 95 percent of its elected members belong to the Punjab. It is important for the PML-N to cultivate partnership with the representative political forces of other provinces so as to accommodate them in federal cabinet and other key appointments at the federal level. The new federal government should be seen in the country as the government of Pakistan rather than that of the Punjab. The PML-N’s extraordinary mandate is almost exclusively loaded in favour of the Punjab. It is therefore a challenge for the PML-N to create political partnerships and power sharing that cuts across provincial boundaries. It should address socio-economic issues, the energy crisis and extremism and terrorism as its highest priorities. The management of these issues will shape its political future. It needs to pull out as a party from petty issues like polling-day rigging. Individual candidates may pursue these complaints through legal channels. It should avoid being used by Sindhi groups for their local and personal fight with the PPP. The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.

Reehana Raza and Anjum Nasim
A response to an article by Sartaj Aziz Mr Sartaj Aziz, senior vice president of PML-N, in his article in this newspaper on April 23, has rightly argued that generation capacity is not the cause of the present energy crisis and his explanation of the circular debt is eminently reasonable. However, his position on the 1994 energy policy is untenable. In particular, the figures that he has mentioned on hydel-thermal mix in 1994 as part of his critique of the 1994 policy are incorrect. The 1994 power policy was framed in the backdrop of power shortages which date back to 1982. In 1985, the government of Pakistan announced an initiative to encourage private participation in power generation which led to the development of Hub Power Project in 1987. Construction of the power station began in December 1992, financial close was achieved in January 1995, and the project started operation in 1996. The experience from Hub Power Project cleared the way for attracting more private investment in the power sector. In 1994, electricity shortage was 2000 MW during peak demand, and electricity was available to only 40 percent of the population. The 1994 power policy projected an eight percent annual increase in energy demand over the next 25 years. A solution to the power shortage which addressed the problem in 2-3 years had to rely on thermal energy. A solution based on hydel power, which involved greater capital cost but lower operating cost, would have taken 7-10 years, at least. The fast-track solution entailed higher energy cost but it had to be seen in the context of the loss that the economy was suffering in terms of loss of economic growth because of energy shortage. Although the 1994 energy policy invited investment in the power sector and not specifically in thermal power, the investments that materialised in 3-4 years were thermal-based. Mr Sartaj Aziz claims that in 1994, out of the total installed capacity of 11000 MW, 60 percent was hydel and 40 percent was thermal, and in the next few years this mix was reversed from 60:40 to 30:70. This is not correct. The share of hydel-power in 1994 was 42 percent and not 60 percent. The statement that the additional thermal power capacity installed under the 1994 power policy agreements was about 6000 MW is also not correct. If Hub power, which is being claimed as a project of the first PML-N government, is excluded, the actual installed capacity under the 1994 power policy was 3000 MW and not 6000 MW as stated by Julia Fraser in Lessons from the Independent Private Power Experience in Pakistan, Energy and Mining Sector Board Discussion Paper No 14, The World Bank, May 2005. The share of thermal power in hydel-thermal mix in 1994 was 58 percent. If we add the Hub power capacity (1292 MW) the share of thermal power increases to 62 percent. The Ghazi Barotha hydel power project, whose PC-I was approved in 1994 and became operational in 2003 and 2004, added 1450 MW of generation capacity. The short-term impact of the 1994 policy (before the Ghazi Barotha became operational) was to increase thermal share in the hydel-thermal mix from 62 percent to 70 percent. The long-term impact of the 1994 policy on hydel-thermal mix (taking account of Ghazi Barotha) was a change of thermal share from 62 percent to 64 percent. Therefore, the impact of the 1994 policy, when complementary public sector investment in hydel power is taken into account, is not very dramatic. The 1994 policy served the purpose of addressing short-term energy shortages but more power was contracted than the economy could absorb in the short term, especially because of anemic growth in that period. The ‘dazzling speed’ that Mr Sartaj Aziz has referred to and the lack of transparency in awarding contracts had added to the perception of corruption. Notwithstanding these perceptions, prices offered under the 1994 policy were comparable with those offered by Indonesia, Philippines and India at that time, as Julia Fraser made it clear in the same paper. The same paper reports that in July 1998, the PML-N government served Notices of Intent to Terminate to seven IPPs on grounds of corruption and to two on technical grounds. Evidence on corruption charges were not presented in court and Hubco was constrained by courts to seek international arbitration. Eventually a number of IPPs agreed to tariff reductions. After many years of slow growth, the economy picked up in 2003-04 and for the next four years the growth rate was between 5.8 percent and 9 percent. This growth rate would have been impossible without the availability of electricity that was made possible in large part by the 1994 energy policy, and contributed cumulatively more than $44 billion to the economy during the four-year period (2004-2007) over and above what would have been possible at the 3.4 percent growth rate in the previous four years of the Musharraf government. The high growth rate during this period had started to create shortages and new thermal projects were approved during this period and started operations during the tenure of the last PPP government. A number of small hydro plants were commissioned and some large hydro power plants are under construction including the Neelum-Jhelum hydro project with 969 MW capacity, first approved in 1989, on which construction started in 2008 and is expected to be completed in 2016. The hydel-thermal mix in 2012 was 30:70. New thermal power projects during the PML-Q government were approved at the time when the economy was growing strongly and electricity shortages had reappeared. The commissioning of these projects coincided with major escalation of international oil prices. The government policy of not passing the higher cost to the consumers and keeping tariffs low creates excess demand. Meeting the entire excess demand would involve unacceptable fiscal burden. The extent to which the government is willing to bear the subsidy burden determines the extent of load shedding. The tariff subsidy burden is made worse because of poor recovery of energy bills, power theft and pilferage, relief provided to consumers by courts, and non-payment of dues by provincial governments’ departments and agencies, all of which add to the problem of circular debt and load shedding. Even though load shedding can be addressed to a considerable extent if consumer tariffs reflect the higher cost of generation, but this would involve rationing through the price mechanism rather than quantity rationing through load shedding as is being done at present. Higher tariffs affect the competitiveness of our industry, not to mention the greater incidence of power theft and other corrupt practices. Therefore, the search for cheaper forms of energy has to be a major priority. Generation of electricity through hydro power is cheaper but project engineering and social, environmental and political dimensions are far more complex than those of thermal power. Other power options based on wind and solar energy are in their infancy in Pakistan. Thermal energy based on Thar coal reserves is also at an exploratory stage. Let’s hope the new governments will focus on indigenous and renewable resources for power generation, which have become economically far more viable because of major escalation in international oil prices since 2008. Reehana Raza is the CEO of Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS). Anjum Nasim is a senior research fellow at IDEAS.

Najma Sadeque
Reign of mafia in Karachi’s society and economy There is an old and established bazaar (shops below, owners’ flats above) in Clifton, Karachi, close to the Defence Society – all in the now-famous NA-250 constituency – known as Delhi Colony. It is inhabited by Muslims of various sects, Christians, Hindus, locals and migrants, none of who give a hoot about what other people’s faith or ethnicity are, let alone who they vote for. Previously, its best feature was that even when all other city bazaars shut down, Delhi Colony always stayed open, quite oblivious of news and politics. So much so, when people in other parts of town had urgent need on hartal days, they would drive all the way to Delhi Colony – Until about 10 years ago. On that fateful day, out of the blue, a gang of hoodlums brandishing clubs, charged in and overturned the thelas spilling cooked food and other items onto the street, flung and smashed goods from shop shelves, and beat up enough shopkeepers and roadside vendors for good measure. As word spread like wildfire through Delhi Colony, people quickly pulled down their shutters while thela-walas fled, some forced to leave their thelas behind, losing their wares and earnings for the day. The attackers did not hide who they were. They warned their victims who were told to pass on the word, that if ever again Delhi Colony was kept open during hartals, they would not be left with a business to run – or perhaps their skulls. Delhi Colony has never again disobeyed. It took just one decisive assault to ensure that. Routine reminders come with ‘inspection’ or ‘bhatta’ visits. It was therefore significant how quickly the patience of residents and shopkeepers wore thin, albeit justifiably, because of the PTI protestors’ dharnas in Lahore that inconvenienced traffic and affected business. How would they have reacted if they had to endure what Karachiites did for 30 years every time life suddenly came to a standstill. The bigger the city, the richer the pickings. This makes any metropolis in the world — especially of 18-plus million potential prey – mouth-watering for mafiosi. Money can be made from rich and poor alike depending on nature and scale of activity. There’s hierarchy among thieves as well, and many are directly vertically linked. The police are a prime example of this. But cruel and corrupt to the core though the police may be, it can be contained if, by some good fortune, some head honcho turns out to be honest, tough and transparent enough to get cracking. In fact, the police are the lesser of Karachi’s problems. The mafia leads, work in collusion with facilitating partners – government functionaries, and the police, who get their respective cuts. Favours done for politicians too. The mafia calls the shots in Karachi. It is highly organised, fascist, carving up the city territorially, every apartment building or locality assigned an armed unit to ‘manage’ it. Grounds rules are spelt out to residents, regular ‘donations’ collected for voluntary services, like looking after their ‘security’. In return, they just need to attend mass meetings at short notice. There are separate charges for one-off but more complex jobs. Want an electricity connection that won’t fetch a regular bill? Or some service, whether legitimate or document tampering, from a reluctant government department? Want to encroach and build on government land or private absentee property? Easily arranged. Teachers and municipal jobs also for sale. Of modest means? Need a permanent location on the roadside, ideal for selling fruit, vegetables or whatever from the thela? Done deal. Own a conspicuously large generator that says you must be loaded to afford it? Then you can also afford the price for its protection. Or is some greenhorn trying to muscle into what you consider to be your territory, albeit through honest competition? For a reasonable price, he’ll be taught a lesson never to give cause again. One rule every family head must always remember: if rules are defied, someone will have to pay in the worst way possible. God help you if you have women and children in your family you can’t bear to see hurt. There’s one serious – perhaps gutless – mistake every single government, civilian or military, has made about Karachi for over three decades. Or was it just cruelly easy, self-serving compromise? Every government has always treated Karachi’s known but unacknowledged mafia hegemony as a political instead of a criminal issue, although dealing serious social and economic consequences. It was established long, long before the Taliban and other terrorists entered the scene. Yet it took the latter’s equally unacceptable behaviour to justify Rangers operations, although mafia mayhem wasn’t very different. As if democracy doesn’t include that citizens have a right to a mafia-free society and economy.

anjum

This week, Microsoft rubber-stamped Windows 8 as good to go for manufacturers. This means PC makers and other partners can grab the operating system code and test it out with their products, which should start arriving Oct. 26. The struggle for the future of computing as we know it has essentially commenced.

Microsoft has essentially opened a window in having media and technology start anew with their new operating system. As they have minted a lot of money through Windows Vista, and through Windows 7, who says that they won't do the same now?

Howevever, what one really needs to see is a resurgence of the Personal Computer industry, to battle smartphones and tablets in the ever-growing information technology market. Windows unsuccesful bid to bring forth a popular Tablet PC for their customers brought an opportunity for Apple to establish its brand through the iPad. Early smartphones in the form of handheld palmtops such as the HP Jornada have given Google an edge in bringing forth Android phones with more advanced operating systems.

So it essentially comes down to this: with Windows 8, we get to find out what the non-Apple computing industry really has left.

Windows needs some resurgence to its already established brand, as the bringer of Personal Computers during in an information technology hike in the 80's, 90's, and 00's. It really needs to get the ball rolling and not leave companies like Dell, Hewlett-Packard, or Acer sitting idly by while others get ahead in the game.

Just about everyone—even Apple fans—should hope that some company gets its act together, takes some risks, and wows the public on the back of Windows 8. It’s the sort of competition the industry needs to be healthy and for innovation to continue at a furious clip.

Sakina Husain
It has been about a month since the IMF report on Pakistan ‘ingeniously’ highlighted the economy’s fragility. A sense of urgency was incumbent; the PM quickly and quite conveniently replaced the secretaries of finance and FBR. Very few questions were asked; the damage was covered. How and why would the public demand accountability and transparency, or an extenuating correction of seemingly portrayed fudged figures when it has been residing in blissful ignorance with regard to the economy? Or maybe the silence was another extension of the disillusionment with the system. For the purpose of reminiscing, the IMF report in Feb-12 revealed that the (please note: expected) budget deficit communicated by the government for FY12 has been understated by Rs532 billion where in the revenue was overstated by Rs215 billion and expenditures were understated by Rs317 billion. This would imply that the budget deficit for the current fiscal year would arrive at about 6.6 per cent of GDP, instead of the government’s repeated assurances about realising the promised five per cent contingent on promised external inflows which even the sovereign would vouch by…but nevertheless. Given this back drop, the very act of changing secretaries signals that the government is capable of making only cosmetic changes in an effort to please the almighty IMF. The first contention questions why the IMF is so important that the government needs to replace qualified personnel who have served its cause throughout the regime so far. Moreover, current deliberations by the ex-finance minister reveal that domestic debt has exceeded foreign debt, indicative of greater reliance on the domestic financial system instead of lenders abroad. So why is there a need to prove credibility in front of this iffy source of funds? The second contention challenges the autonomy of the ministry of finance as the government’s window into its accounts. If expenditures, especially the larger recurrent ones are being exceeded than the target, is the finance ministry really supposed to suffer blame? There are severe structural deficiencies in the collection and distribution of revenues between the federal and the provincial governments. For instance, the provincial government or the chief minister has the power to undertake expenditures without taking prior approval from the national assembly. This automatically results in a greater than expected deficit in provincial budgets as the latter have limited space to raise revenues, especially, post the 18th amendment which led to the devolution of many subjects that were earlier apart of the federal list. Third, the PM’s alacrity in reading international evaluations of the economy is commendable and therefore must be lauded. Why should he pay heed to weekly caveats published by domestic analysts who have repeatedly tried to inform, challenge or at least warn the government regarding the same macro variables delineated by the IMF? The government is ready to cheer the FBR chairman when he reports higher than target revenue collection, but ever ready to replace the same person when the numbers are challenged by an international body! Why are there no internal checks and balances? And moreover, is the 2-3membered IMF office in Pakistan better equipped to report federal collection of taxes and expenditures? Regardless of whether the answer is in the affirmative, there is only a sense of embarrassment and shame that holds its ground. If the government is ever so concerned about accurate reporting of its accounts and more importantly meeting its target spending, ‘may be’ it needs to address the inefficiencies that exist in its very own government offices. Supposedly, for the provision of government services annually, the government spends about Rs13,000 per capita, leaving out the amount that is assigned for expanding the scope of these services ie the PSDP. And to put an end note: there is little education, very little health and almost no security in the country. The writer is an economic analyst and freelance financial journalist. She can be reached at [email protected]

Javed Gilani
an economy unable to reach its production possibility frontier will always remain vulnerable to exogenous shocks, as in the case of Pakistan. It would have been a different story if the last two-to-three years had seen some sort of visible improvement in handling deficits and improving growth. If we had produced, exported and grown more, we would have had a more stable support base, restricting damage from external shocks our economic and political managers have no control over. In the present circumstances, among Pakistan’s chief worries is rising energy and input cost, the demand-supply dynamics of which play out on a stage and involve actors far removed from Islamabad’s sphere of influence. With our deficits in uncomfortable zones, additional price pressure due to increasing inflation, predominantly higher energy and input costs, is putting unsustainable pressure on the country’s reserve situation. Therefore, even as relevant quarters and analysts calculate a few month elbow room for reserves, their value diminishes every time international pressures bid up oil. Things looked up in the immediate aftermath of the 18th amendment, which transferred increased power and responsibility to provincial governments. Yet with no proper revenue generation framework, and unable to get help from a largely defunct FBR, they have been unable to make any meaningful contribution so far. On the other hand, the federal machinery has not been able to introduce any form of value addition in the present export basket. This means that almost all traditional means of generating national revenue are compromised. That is why we rely on international trends to facilitate our economic engine. We are always in need of improved remittances to defend deficits. We are always praying for international events that push down the price of oil so our own economic managers can breathe easy. And of course, we are always on the lookout of bailout and donor assistance. Sadly, despite the obvious persistence of such trends, we have not moved in manner that the situation merits. It bears noting that persistent growth problems require solvency in credit markets to stimulate the only indigenous option to revive GDP. When the external situation exerts unbearable pressure, economies look inward, prompting private sector expansion which in turn attracts offshore investment. In this case, banks facilitate private sector investment, in some cases ably guided by the official machinery, in a way that the centre does not interfere in market mechanism, only facilitates it. This is where the Pakistani banking sector needs to step up to the plate. For some years now, a proactive lending regime, one that incorporates targeted needs of the time, has been conspicuous by its absence. Whatever little scope the private sector has had has been compromised by heavy government borrowing. This equation requires urgent balancing. The last couple of years of private sector crowding out have left a vast investment field yet to be exploited. Ironically, the laxity of the past might even turn into an attractive opportunity for the present. If properly handled, private sector investment can create jobs, improve infrastructure, create employment and, most importantly, engineer second round market multiplier, with gains for all. We have now come to the point of no return. Both government and autonomous organs must finalise an action plan that will stimulate employment and growth. That means fine tuning both fiscal and monetary policies. Once the finance ministry initiates immaculately targeted fiscal expansion, and the central bank makes credit available to private investors, we may even see a domino effect strong enough to lure bulky foreign investors. Our problems are not existential, but their handling has made them acute. We have the necessary inputs, its just a little toggling of official policy that is required. The recent stock market optimism is an adequate indicator of productive potential across the economy. All that is needed is effective program management. The writer is Chief Manager SME bank and has been a leading banker in the industry for more than 30 years

Pakistan Today
Development that we see today may look nothing to us but in reality it has been made possible by multiple ideas and hardwork carried out by different researchers and scholars. Without even realising, we are looking at the wonders of “project finance”. Some projects might be completed through traditional financing structure but the latest development is a result of project financing. In project financing, risk and financing is negotiated among all the stakeholders. Project financing is becoming popular in developing economies although not as much as in developed countries. It is suitable for large projects especially in developing and emerging countries like Pakistan. Infrastructure projects were earlier financed mostly by the government itself. But that has started to change now, mainly to decrease budget deficit and foreign debt. The international institutions like World Bank and private institutions are playing a vital role in the development of infrastructure. In developed countries, this model is extended to public-private partnerships. For successful implementation of projects, the future challenge is to find a balance between public-private partnerships. The State Bank of Pakistan has taken initiatives to implement project financing which includes infrastructure task force and capacity building. The adverse economic environment in Pakistan and problems in global debt markets had an adverse effect on the number of infrastructure projects reaching financial close, particularly since mid-2008. Budgetary constraints might pose a non-trivial risk to the government’s proposed infrastructure investment plans. Furthermore, non-banking finance, insurance and pension funds sectors remain underdeveloped, posing significant obstacles to the project finance sector. However, the government does remain publicly committed to infrastructure finance and is continuing to pursue enabling reforms. Projects involving private participation in power and transport sectors particularly have seen some activity in recent years, indicating that there is an appetite among investors for infrastructure projects. Recent improvements in macroeconomic stability after receiving the IMF package, combined with relative resolve in the rate of economic growth in 2007-08, should enable cautious optimism going forward.

Pakistan Today
Livestock sector plays a very important role in Pakistan’s economy. It contributes 11.6 percent in national GDP and 55.1 percent of agriculture share. There are approximately 32.7 million buffaloes in Pakistan which constitute about 15 percent of the world buffalo population. There are five known buffalo breeds in the country named as Nili, Ravi, Nili-Ravi, Kundi and Aza Kheli. Nili-Ravi and Kundi are the two main breeds with 38 percent and 25 percent of the total population, respectively. Traditionally, animals are purchased and sold on the basis of physical appearance and no system of record keeping exists at field level. However, type and conformation are very important where ‘type’ is a term commonly used to describe the physical qualities of an animal. Linear type traits are considered the basis of all modern type classification systems for describing the dairy animals. Linear classification is based on measurement of individual type trait instead of opinion. Generally, farmers use type classification as a management tool in breeding and selection decisions. Type traits are very important because they are correlated with milk production. One of the objectives of the study was to standardize method for buffaloes to select animals with proper body characteristics suitable for milk production. Nili-Ravi buffalo herds maintained at five Livestock Experiment Stations in Punjab and some private breeders were utilized in this study. The results are as under: Skin thickness has been found under the genetic control and can be improved through selection and breeding keeping in view its importance and demand in the leather industry. The negative genetic correlation of skin thickness in the neck region with 305 days milk yield advocates the thinking of farmers about the negative correlation of skin thickness with milk yield. It may be used for indirect selection for improved milk yield in Nili-Ravi buffaloes. The following points are suggested for farmers at field level: Record keeping is the basic need for improvement in any business. Farmers should start record keeping of their animals including date of purchase or birth, dam number (Mother), sir number (Father), date of pregnancy, name or number of bull used for pregnancy, date of calving, sex and number of new born calf, milk recording once a month and date of dry. These records will help the farmer to keep or cull that buffalo. Buffaloes with good type and body conformation even somewhat costly at initial stage are better milk producers and produce more milk on life time basis. Nili-Ravi buffaloes of relatively heavy size, more body length and girth, wedge shaped with angular and well sprung ribs, more body weight and with thin skin are better milk producers and should be selected and purchased accordingly.

Pakistan Today
Elections are just around the corner. The campaign of political parties is gathering its swing. The political leaders, at least those who are claimants of being stalwarts, are using cheap slogans and language in public rallies. Their language cannot be watched on TV with family around. One political starter has gone so low that he reminds me of age-old deceased Mazhar Shah of Punjabi films fame. As such our country is now devoid of all consumable resources the only thing left was little decency and this election and electioneering is going to wash away even decency. AMJAD HABIB MIRZA Lahore

Pakistan Today
Keep political loose cannon under check Among other important issues raised by Mian Nawaz Sharif on Monday was that of the government-opposition relations. Opposing agitational politics, the PML-N chief maintained the culture of overturning governments through street agitation must come to an end. Many would readily agree with Nawaz as the country badly needs to consolidate the gains made during the last five years of democratic rule. During 2008-13 the governments at the center and the provinces abstained, after a long time, from persecuting political opponents or recruiting turncoats from rival political parties. A display of greater patience helped a genuinely elected government to complete its tenure for the first time. What is needed now is to further expand the democratic culture by abstaining from taking political battles from the Parliament to the streets. What the PML-N needs to realize however is that it takes two to tango. The party in power at the center and in Balochistan shall bear a greater responsibility for keeping political differences within manageable limits. The PML-N has to deal with a number of crucial and highly complex problems, ranging from terrorism to power shortages, and an ailing economy which it may not be able to deal with satisfactorily unless there is cooperation between the center and the provinces. Even a cursory look at the scenario would endorse the adage concerning old habits dying hard. The MQM and PTI are in eyeball to eyeball confrontation in Karachi after the killing of Tehrik-e- Insaf leader Zahra Shahid . The outbursts by the MQM chief have added fuel to the fire. Shahbaz Sharif’s allegation regarding Zardari being responsible for recent transfers and postings in the federal government has elicited a strong protest from the President’s spokesman. President Zardari took nine days to congratulate Nawaz Sharif over his victory. Unless the government and the opposition reach an understanding over a modus vivendi, there is a danger of relations deteriorating. Preliminary statements hinting at cooperation as well as tentative attempts to bring down the political temperature are welcome. Nawaz Sharif has assured that the federal government would do all that it can to help the PPP and the MQM to improve law and order situation in Karachi. Pervez Khattak who has been nominated by the PTI as Chief Minister Khyber Pukhtunkhwa has promised that his government would not enter into confrontation with the center. Altaf Hussain has called off all ongoing protests “till further notice.” Protests are a part of democracy. However unless the leaders of all major parties reach a consensus to maintain democratic norms while expressing dissent, peace in the country would continue to hang by a thread. What is of utmost importance is for the parties to keep their loose cannon under control.

Pakistan Today
Why can’t Pakistan replicate Indo-China ‘model’ friendship? Can once warring neighbours forget the past and take a firm step towards friendship? The question has been asked in the context of the ever-tussling South Asian countries, especially Pakistan. The answer has been delivered by the region’s two biggest countries. India and China have issued a joint statement declaring that, “Over the years, India and China have evolved an effective model of friendly coexistence and common development, which can be an example for relations between big, neighbouring countries.” With the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang visiting Indian Premier Manmohan Singh, the two countries issued a wide-ranging 35-paragraph joint statement, which included “economic cooperation,” expanding joint military exercises and encouraging the teaching of each other’s languages. But two parts of the statement have significant bearing on Pakistan. One, the joint statement played down the 20-day confrontation in Ladakh which ended earlier in May, when India accused Chinese troops of pitching a clutch of tents on their side of the Line of Actual Control. It referred to the “existing mechanisms agreed in 1993 proving their worth,” a model that suggests that a similar arrangement could be made by Pakistan with both Afghanistan and India, especially since the last border skirmishes with the former are continuing to have their after effects. Two, both countries agreed to support “an ‘Afghan-led, Afghan-owned’ reconciliation process” to achieve peace, stability, independence and development in Afghanistan. It points to a regional consensus where the role of the security establishment will need to diminish to enter the new phase of diplomacy in South Asia. Perhaps, cynics would take the statement must be taken with a pinch of salt: how could the two countries with an outstanding border dispute and recent border confrontations call themselves “model neighbours”? But then that is the point. Foreign relations can be counter-intuitive. The fact that disputes shall remain outstanding between two sovereign states is a given. India has some with China, Pakistan has some with India, Afghanistan has some with Pakistan, China has some with Pakistan, and so the circle continues to go on. The point to be realised is that the negotiations in these disputes should continue on the negotiating table, and there should be no war-mongering for pieces of land. There can be nothing more encouraging for Pakistan than to see the two countries it borders calling each other “model neighbours” despite having fought a full-scale war in the early 1960s. The writing is there on the wall. The future lies in cultivating friendships, and no enmity lasts forever. If Pakistan fails to read it, it risks isolating itself. One hopes that the security establishment and the new Sharif government will draw the right lessons. If elected governments must have the final say over foreign relations, perhaps one day India and Pakistan shall also declare each other “model neighbours.” Surely it is a noble hope.

Pakistan Today
Prisoner of alliances Like the PPP earlier, the PML-N too is seeking alliances with a number of parties. Zardari’s policy of reconciliation with all was a need in the case of the PPP which did not have enough MNAs to form the government on its own. The PPP accepted any party which showed willingness to cooperate irrespective of its ideology, programme or past record. While it had a modicum of similarity of views with the ANP, the MQM and PML-Q were known for hostility towards the PPP. But since the PPP had decided to complete its tenure at any price, it continued to yield to the unending demands of its allies. Some of the bad governance that characterised the PPP era emanated from the policy of reconciliation. It is only in Balochistan where Nawaz Sharif really needs allies. The PML-N has emerged here as the single largest party with 13 seats. It has, therefore, to broker an alliance with some of the other parties to be able to form a government. It has already cobbled together an alliance, comprising the PkMAP and National Party, which provides it enough votes to form government in Balochistan. There is now a talk about including the JUI-F also in the provincial coalition which is resented by the alliance components. In the National assembly the PML-N is in a better position than the PPP was in 2008. The party has straightaway bagged 124 of the 272 directly elected seats while there is a long queue of independent candidates waiting to join the party. After the elections on the reserved seats have taken place, there is a likelihood of the PML-N emerging as the single largest party in the National Assembly capable of ruling on its own. Shahbaz Sharif has meanwhile extended invitation to JUI-F to join as a coalition partner. What has apparently prompted the PML-N is presumably the concerns about the Senate. In the Upper House, with 104 members, the PML-N has only 15 Senators as against PPP’s 39 and JUI-F’s 7. The support from the religious party could help PML-N in the conduct of the legislative business. The reliance is however likely to tilt the PML-N further towards the right as the JUI-F is opposed to legislation that favours women or religious minorities. If the media reports are to be given credence, the price being demanded by the JUI-F for support is post of the KP Governor, Chair of the Kashmir Committee, two or three federal cabinet posts and the office of the senior minister in Balochistan. The PML-N needs to ask itself if the game is worth the candle. As time passes the religious party is likely to put up more demands. Will the PML-N become a prisoner of its alliances like the PPP and end up with bad governance?