Recent reports have suggested that the United States President Donald Trump is considering the imposition of 100 per cent trade tariff on China effective Nov 1, while China has called the move American double standards. The world at large is simply waiting to see which way it goes from here.
Ever since Trump assumed office in January 2025, his policy towards China has been a study in contradictions. On some days, he hails China as a great country deserving normal relations with the US. On others, he brandishes tariffs as weapons, imposing crushing duties on Chinese imports.
This oscillation between praise and punishment betrays a failure to grasp the transformation of China. It is no longer the vulnerable power of a decade ago, but an ascendant nation, propelled by consistent leadership, unity of purpose, and a relentless focus on rising as a global force.
Economists across the globe are nearly unanimous in the view that the tariff spike would not cripple China. Instead, it would damage the American economy, with the burden falling squarely on consumers and industries. The tariff war would undercut sectors vital to US national security and global competitiveness. What makes this escalation more dangerous is China’s newfound willingness to retaliate.
Trump’s long-term vision of rebuilding domestic refining and mining capacity may carry merit, but the reality is sobering: constructing such infrastructure will take up to 10 years. Till that happens, the US remains tied to China at least in terms of rare earth elements.
Now, with Beijing redirecting exports to other markets at competitive rates, Washington risks isolation and decline in many sectors where it once excelled.
Domestic tensions related to Trump’s reliance on executive orders to deploy National Guard units across American cities have risen, and international relationships, once grounded in cooperation, have soured. America’s reputation as a partner of choice is waning, and its soft power, once its greatest asset, has been eroded.
The trade war with China is not an isolated clash. Its consequences ripple across the global economy. Supply chains are disrupted, investment flows redirected, and markets destabilised. For consumers worldwide, the fallout means higher prices and increased uncertainty. For businesses, it means recalibrating strategies and bearing new risks. A conflict between the world’s two largest economies cannot be contained — it reverberates in every corner of the globe.
The path forward demands wisdom, not bravado. Tariffs, coercion and military posturing cannot secure a sustainable future; only dialogue can. The US and China, as the central pillars of the global economy, must find common ground.
A balanced agreement that delivers tangible benefits to both peoples would not only stabilise relations, but also reassure a world rattled by their rivalry. Cooperation would send a signal of stability, confidence, and hope — qualities the global economy sorely needs.
The stakes could not be higher. Confrontation risks undermining prosperity, fuelling unrest, and deepening global fractures. Cooperation offers the chance to channel competition into progress, ensuring that innovation, trade and development serve people everywhere. Let us hope that reason would prevail.
QAMAR BASHIR
ISLAMABAD
