As Pakistan begins the upcoming Rabi season, the country finds itself with a rare advantage: a healthy carryover of more than 13 million acre-feet (MAF) of water stored in its reservoirs. This significant reservoir capacity, despite the devastating floods of the outgoing Kharif season, provides a glimmer of hope for the agricultural sector, which has long struggled with inconsistent water availability. It is an opportunity that must be seized with caution and responsibility.
After years of persistent droughts and depleting water supplies, Pakistan has faced an unusually favorable situation heading into the Rabi season. The current levels in Tarbela and Mangla dams, though not at full capacity, provide a relatively stable base from which to manage the irrigation needs of crucial crops such as wheat, barley, and lentils. While some concerns remain about the slow filling of Mangla Dam due to low river flows, the fact that total storage now stands at over 13 MAF offers an essential buffer against potential water shortages that have plagued Pakistan in recent years.
However, there is no room for complacency. Despite the healthy carryover, the damage wrought by last season’s floods, particularly in Punjab’s plains, remains a serious concern. These floods have left farmlands submerged and covered with thick sand deposits, potentially hindering crop growth if the floodwaters are not cleared in time. The agricultural landscape, already scarred by irregular water flows, now faces the added challenge of restoring land quality before sowing can proceed. A premature prediction of agricultural output is unwise; much depends on how quickly and effectively the government, in coordination with provincial authorities, can manage these issues.
Moreover, there are risks associated with over-reliance on a good start to the season. The total water required for the Rabi crops is estimated at 37-38 MAF, and while carryover storage and expected river flows may meet this demand, the availability of water in coming months is far from guaranteed. Historical trends suggest that the situation can quickly shift from stability to crisis if water management is not efficient and equitable. The water distribution system must be handled with utmost care, ensuring that each province receives its due share under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. Irsa must remain vigilant and responsive, ensuring that water is allocated fairly and used judiciously to maximize the agricultural output during the season.
The window of opportunity is narrow, and we must not squander it. Pakistan’s agricultural economy, which feeds millions, hinges on the effective management of this precious resource. With the right strategies in place, this water reserve can play a pivotal role in mitigating the impacts of the floods, restoring agricultural productivity, and securing food stability for the country. However, it will require foresight, coordination, and, most importantly, a commitment to long-term water conservation practices.
In this precarious moment, Pakistan must remember that water is not just an agricultural input—it is a lifeline. Let us ensure it is used wisely, so that this season marks the beginning of a new era of sustainable water management.
