In today’s world, global warming and socio-geopolitical conflicts have become dangerously intertwined. The continuous rise in temperatures, famine, oceanic surges, and rampant wildfires have not only disrupted environmental balance but also laid the foundation for heightened conflict and instability within human societies.
The year 2024 marked a critical milestone in global temperature rise. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, average temperatures in 2024 were 1.6°C higher than pre-industrial levels, clearly breaching the 1.5°C “safe limit.” This data signals an urgent warning: the practical global carbon dioxide “budget” has mostly been exhausted, weakened further in recent years, and is projected to be entirely consumed within the next three years.
This temperature rise is not just about changing seasons, it represents a sweeping ecological upheaval. Elevated Atlantic Ocean temperatures have intensified marine heatwaves. The period from 2023 to 2025 has been historically devastating, with approximately 84 percent of coral varieties perishing. Such ecological disasters severely threaten global food systems; for instance, every 1°C rise in temperature is projected to reduce yields of wheat, rice, and maize by 12–22 percent.
However, the ongoing wars and the use of terrifying, destructive weapons are rendering Earth’s environment increasingly hostile to life. Without a unified and urgent strategy to address both warfare and climate change, the future will be one of devastation and human decline. What’s needed is continuity, global collaboration, and bold, decisive action. Without these, environmental destruction and threats to humanity will only continue to grow
These sacrifices are not merely environmental, they are deeply social and human. The health and societal impacts of global warming are evident. Recently, a heatwave in southern England approached 30°C, a once-rare event that has now become common due to the climate crisis, leading to thousands of deaths.
Research indicates that even a 1°C rise in temperature increases interpersonal conflicts by two percent and intergroup violence by 2.5–5 percent. When agriculture is disrupted due to water scarcity or crop failure food insecurity worsens, amplifying tensions in agrarian regions. For example, the Sahel region in Africa, suffering from severe drought, has seen heightened conflict between groups like Fulani herders and local militias. This region is now among the worst affected by terrorism and climate-induced violence.
Wars, in turn, also exacerbate environmental destruction. The Ukraine–Russia conflict, for instance, resulted in an estimated 230 million tonnes of CO₂e emissions, stemming not just from warfare equipment but also the destruction of infrastructure, forest fires, and mass displacements. The environmental devastation caused by such conflicts further disrupts the ecological balance and accelerates climate change.
In South Asia, treaties like the Indus Waters Treaty between Pakistan and India are crucial for irrigation and energy security. However, climate-induced stress and increasing Indian aggression have placed this agreement at risk. Heatwaves, droughts, and dwindling water resources are escalating tensions, which could lead to insecurity, migration, and political instability across the region.
A UN report highlights that at least 22 regions including Sudan, the Palestinian territories, Mali, and Haiti are facing severe food insecurity, with climate shocks being a primary factor. The outcome is large-scale displacement and profound humanitarian crises.
If CO₂ emissions continue at the current pace for the next three years, the 1.5°C target will become unreachable. This would effectively nullify global climate accords such as the Paris Agreement and fuel heightened political and economic tensions, particularly among nations most vulnerable to climate change.
The U.S. military, regarded as the world’s largest single institutional emitter of greenhouse gases, contributes 0.05% of global emissions. Military exercises, weapons manufacturing, and defense logistics leave a heavy environmental footprint. Conflicts involving the USA, the former USSR, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya and more, have occurred recently. Israel–Palestine–Lebanon–Iran, have severely damaged the Earth’s protective ozone layer. This exposes the planet to more ultraviolet and other harmful radiation. The deadly interplay between war and climate change is rendering the planet increasingly uninhabitable.
Moreover, the looming threat of a third world war and the consistent increase in defence budgets are deepening the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, increasing emissions and strategic competition among states.
In response, the European Union is coordinating comprehensive action through its Green Deal, involving private sectors, research institutions, and energy transitions. Similarly, countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and organizations like JICA are launching carbon-neutral initiatives targeting SMEs and impoverished regions. Although G7 reports still reflect climate vulnerabilities, efforts such as COP30 in Brazil to reaffirm environmental commitments are positive developments.
Once the 1.5–2°C threshold is crossed, devastating feedback loops will begin: polar ice will melt, ocean currents will destabilize, and coral extinction will accelerate each amplifying the next. Unfortunately, international cooperation on environmental policy is weakening due to rising conflicts and global instability. While wars devastate human lives and infrastructure, they also significantly worsen climate impacts.
The triad of global warming, food and water crises, and social unrest is collectively fueling global instability. The inability to effectively address climate change is undermining political systems worldwide. This is no longer just a security issue; it is a global existential threat. Wars destroy ecosystems, and their aftermath includes increased greenhouse gas emissions, extinction of wildlife, and food shortages.
Yet, there is some hope. International cooperation and institutional initiatives such as the EU Green Deal, the Paris Agreement, and COP30 point toward progress.
However, the ongoing wars and the use of terrifying, destructive weapons are rendering Earth’s environment increasingly hostile to life. Without a unified and urgent strategy to address both warfare and climate change, the future will be one of devastation and human decline. What’s needed is continuity, global collaboration, and bold, decisive action. Without these, environmental destruction and threats to humanity will only continue to grow.
