AT PENPOINT
The PTI’s now-or-never protest, to have been a repeat of the 2016 D-Chowk sit-in may have fizzled out in a sort of comedy of errors, but it seems to have caused the party suffering even more damage, of the sort it had experienced on 9 May 2023.
The 9 May attacks were meant to protest the arrest of party chief Imran Khan, and may be counted successful in the short term, because he was released on bail. Protests which include arson and robbery (both at Jinnah House Lahore, the residence of the Corps Commander) do not result in relief being permanent. Therefore, Imran was arrested again.
Even before that second arrest, the party began to suffer desertions, resignation and a series of party figures who made public statements condemning the PTI and declaring undying loyalty for the armed forces. The process culminated with the February elections, where the Pakistan Istehkam Party and the PTI Nazriati came into existence, of people who had left the PTI, but had not found a place in some other party.
PTI protests do not have the effect they are supposed to. They also may be outdated, which might be strange to say for a party so celebrated for its digital awareness. However, the ideas of sit-ins and even the abortive ‘jail bharo tehrik’ come from the Indian Independence Movement, which is after all at least 84, more like 94, years old. One almost expects Gandhi’s 1930 Salt March to be repeated. After all, there seems to be no other call to be made, and the PTI now badly needs a new target.
The urgency has developed because of the ‘now or never’ rhetoric around this rally. The rally failed, not just because of any individuals, though that may have played a role, but because the state was too powerful. Though no one has left the party, people have tendered resignations from party offices, though none has been accepted. One person who came under fire was Salman Akram Raja, the Secretary General. True, the fire so far has been directed at his absence from the rally itself, even though it seems to have escaped notice that he is ex officio the Chief Organizer of the party, and if the rally was driven off, he cannot escape blame. Omar Ayub Khan, who had only got the job last year, had resigned in September a final time, remaining Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly, at the time there was talk of a forward bloc being formed in the PTI parliamentary party. Omar Ayub was responsible both as Secretary General, and as Leader of the Opposition. However, no blame was attached to Gohar Ali Khan, the PTI Chairman and Parliamentary Party leader.
Another leader who had not made it to D-Chowk was Sh Waqas Akram, the Information Secretary who has taken over in September from Raoof Hassan, who had himself taken over in May 2023, when Fawad Chaudhry left the party in the dark days after 9 May. His failure, like Raja’s, is supposed to have been because of the intensity of the blockade.
KP CM Ali Amin Gandapur has also been roundly criticised for running away, but his resignation was KP President was not accepted. Imran’s wife Bushr Bibi also ran away, but did not resign, probably because she holds no office. There are also no divorce proceedings.
The PTI has so far not experienced any high-profile desertions, but perhaps that is because there may not be many prominent leaders left in the party. Those left in the party are diehard loyalists, who have already resisted the temptation to cut and run. However, there have not been any new recruits flowing in.
However, considering that the party’s base was attracted precisely because it was not part of orthodox politics, there is the danger that the path of dialogue will not be open. However, neither the PTI nor any other party has ever been troubled by the need to be consistent. The PTI might find it has to go down this path because it has run out of options. Strictly speaking, having failed to spring Imran, the PTI members should abandon politics, as so many said they would do after May 9. However, they will want to go on, and if the PTI does not give them their preferred path, they will turn to a party that will.
Whether or not the PTI can win the next election, or indeed whether it will survive to the next election, can be disputed. However, the PTI stands for something. That may not be an ideology, but just the loyalty to a single individual. Indeed, that loyalty may mean that there is no ideology, for while the PPP or the PML(N) pay lip service to some sort of ideology, the PTI does not. However, it cannot be said that the PTI stands for nothing. The people in the PTI, the dedicated voters, voted for something. Twice. There is some dispute about how many votes were given this February, but there is no doubt that it got a lot of votes, with its being deprived of its election symbol not preventing independents backed by it receiving a large number of votes, win or lose.
This time around, the narrative was anti-everybody. The anger which had in 2018 been directed against the corruption of previous regimes, whether PML(N) or PPP, was now directed at the armed forces. There was also an appeal to anti-US sentiment, which was by implication the power which had removed Imran.
It should be noted that much of the PTI’s appeal is not over divisive issues. There is no strongly pro-US/anti-US dichotomy between parties; nor is there a dichotomy between those opposing peace with India and those favouring it. One reason why the PTI came to power was because it opposed the PML(N). Why not the PPP? A lot of PPP figures went over to the PTI because they were saddened by the way the PPP kept on losing.
People join political parties both because of a common ideology, and as a means to power. If a party does not provide a pathway to taking office, it withers. The PTI is in danger of suffering that fate. The PPP has survived as a national party because of the grip it has on rural Sindh, where it still enjoys a monopoly, and where it enjoys a stranglehold on the Sindh government. However, there is a falling off in Punjab and KP, mainly because it is no longer the party of power. There is still a lot of party activity, mainly because it is still a mass party, but it is noticeable that its loyalists are increasingly aging.
It is almost as if a person develops loyalty to a particular party, but as its ability to gain power reduces, that person’s children seek out an alternative. At the moment, there does not seem a political vehicle on the horizon for opponents of the PMLN) in Punjab. The PPP and the PTI have thus set themselves up to be in competition with each other there.
As they are both appealing to the same audience, all they will achieve is splitting the vote and perpetuating the PML(N) in power. The PTI has made an alliance of sorts with the JUI(F), so now it would explore an alliance with the PPP. It is almost as if the process of dialogue is forcing it to do what it initially promised it wouldn’t, which was join hands with the corrupt looters and plunderers. An alliance with the PML(N) will come later. There will then be no one else to talk to, except probably the ANP.
Though this was supposed to be the last call, Imran has given the message that he has one or more cards up his sleeve. His plans are dangerous to the party. May 9 led to the loss of leaders, November 24 to that of workers. Will the new card be the joker that drives away the voters?
However, considering that the party’s base was attracted precisely because it was not part of orthodox politics, there is the danger that the path of dialogue will not be open. However, neither the PTI nor any other party has ever been troubled by the need to be consistent. The PTI might find it has to go down this path because it has run out of options. Strictly speaking, having failed to spring Imran, the PTI members should abandon politics, as so many said they would do after May 9. However, they will want to go on, and if the PTI does not give them their preferred path, they will turn to a party that will.
