US agency says El Nino has begun and may strengthen by year-end

Washington: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday that El Nino conditions have emerged and are expected to strengthen through the end of the year, with the potential to reach historically strong levels.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can alter wind systems, rainfall distribution and weather conditions across the world. Scientists have also warned that it could add to heat in a world already warmed by fossil fuel emissions and intensify extreme weather.

In its latest advisory, NOAA said

El Nino conditions developed over the past month

and pointed to above-average Pacific sea surface temperatures as evidence. The agency added that there is a 63 per cent chance of a very strong El Nino during November to January, which it said could place the event among the largest on record since 1950.

Possible global effects

While the effects of each El Nino event vary, major episodes are often associated with drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, weaker or disrupted monsoon patterns in India, and changing rainfall patterns across the tropics. The phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts for around nine to 12 months.

El Nino generally reaches its peak toward the end of the year, but the heat stored in the oceans tends to be released into the atmosphere more gradually, which can contribute to higher global temperatures in the following year.

A day earlier, Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said forecasters were becoming more confident that a very strong El Nino could develop later this year. Its director, Carlo Buontempo, told AFP:

The odds are strongly in favour of a moderate to strong, or probably strong to record-breaking, event at this stage

Warnings from climate officials

Responding to NOAA’s forecast, Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, said the development would have serious consequences for vulnerable populations.

it’s not just another weather forecast

He described it as a

deadly siren to be feared.

It means failed rains, dying crops , rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again.

Earlier this month, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged governments to treat the expected stronger weather pattern as an urgent climate warning.

El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world

He said:

The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis — ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and delivering early warning systems for all.