UN says El Nino likely to return by mid-2026

GENEVA: The United Nations said on Friday that the El Nino weather pattern, which helped drive global temperatures to record levels during its previous cycle, is expected to return by the middle of 2026.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the UN’s weather and climate agency, said El Nino conditions could begin to develop as early as the May-July period. Early signals suggest the event may be strong.

According to the WMO’s global seasonal climate update, an El Nino event is expected from mid-2026 and is likely to affect temperature and rainfall patterns around the world.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It changes wind, pressure and rainfall patterns. It alternates with La Nina, the cooler phase of the cycle, with neutral conditions occurring in between.

The previous El Nino was a factor in making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest year ever recorded.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia said, “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year.. there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification,” and added, “Models indicate that this may be a strong event — but forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he added.

Shift seen in Pacific conditions

The WMO said its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update showed a marked change in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are rising quickly. This was “pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May–July”.

The agency also said forecasts for the next three months point to a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures”.

El Nino usually develops every two to seven years and generally lasts for around nine to 12 months.

Climate change may worsen impacts

The Geneva-based agency said there is no indication that climate change is increasing how often El Nino events occur or how intense they become.

“There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events,” the WMO said. “But it can amplify associated impacts, because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.”

The WMO’s assessment indicates that while El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon, its effects can become more severe in a warmer world because of the additional energy and moisture present in the climate system.