Strengthening conventional deterrence and strategic stability

Pakistan's Army Rocket Force guarantees peace 

Pakistan’s 78th Independence Day felt different. The flags were up, bands were playing, speeches were made as usual; but you could sense a more focused mood underneath all of it. May’s crisis with India still sat close to the surface. People hadn’t forgotten how quickly things moved, how little time there was to decide anything. It concentrated the mind. In this context Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stood up in Islamabad and announced the Army Rocket Force Command, a new missile-centric formation. He called it a landmark for defence and said, “It will improve our conventional war capabilities,” while thanking the armed forces for how they handled the crisis. It didn’t sound like a line written for applause. It sounded practical and necessary.

The May exchange showed what future fights in our region might look like: drones in the sky, cruise missiles and fighter jets working in tight windows, pressure building in minutes instead of days. Anyone who watched closely could see the pattern— speed, precision, coordination. You can’t manage that with old structures and expect different results. ARFC is basically Pakistan saying: we need a cleaner lane for conventional missiles, and we’re building it.

The logic is simple. By placing ballistic and cruise systems— and later, if technology matures, hypersonic options— under one command, Pakistan separates conventional use from nuclear signalling. That separation matters. It gives policymakers options in the grey space: the ability to respond quickly, accurately, and proportionately if needed, without jumping straight to the nuclear threshold. Think of it as room to breathe when timelines are tight.

It also answers a specific problem. India has talked about quick, limited conventional thrusts. The best reply isn’t big rhetoric; it’s credible capability. A force that can move fast, hit precisely, and signal resolve without lighting the biggest fuse. ARFC can do that job if it’s properly trained and integrated.

Now, there’s a bigger regional picture too. Over the years, India picked up advanced air defences like the S-400 and kept expanding its strike menu with systems such as BrahMos. That created an imbalance in certain areas. Pakistan’s move helps even the table— not to upset it, but to steady it. Deterrence works when both sides believe a quick blow will be met by a quick cost. If ARFC reinforces that belief, it lowers the temptation to test the line.

Pakistan is adapting to the world as it is— faster, more technical, less forgiving of slow decisions. ARFC signals confidence without overstatement, preparation without provocation. It says: we’ll defend ourselves with modern tools and proportionate options, and we’ll try to keep crises from sprinting past the point of control.

Of course, structure without resources is just a diagram. The government backed the announcement with a proposed 20 percent rise in defence spending, roughly to $9 billion. That number matters less than what it buys: faster deployment cycles, better targeting, tighter logistics, and command-and-control that doesn’t choke under pressure. In other words, the boring pieces that actually carry the weight when it counts.

Still, capability on its own doesn’t guarantee stability. Doctrine and communication do a lot of quiet work here. Missiles aren’t destabilizing by nature; uncertainty is. Clear rules— what deters, what triggers use, what absolutely doesn’t— reduce the chances of a bad read in a tense hour. Crisis hotlines, routine de-confliction, straightforward messaging: these are unglamorous, but they save lives. If ARFC grows with those habits baked in, it makes the region safer, not jumpier.

Training will decide the rest. You need crews that can discriminate targets under pressure, defend against electronic warfare and drones, and still keep discipline when the fog thickens. You need intelligence stitched into operations in real time, not as a nice-to-have. And you need logistics that keep tempo without burning out people or platforms. None of this is headline material, but all of it is deterrence in practice.

There’s another point that’s easy to miss. In this decade, decision-speed is becoming as important as range or payload. Countries that fuse data, air and missile defences, and conventional strikes— while keeping human judgment in the loop— are the ones that manage crises instead of being managed by them. ARFC can be Pakistan’s platform for exactly that: integrating the tech with restraint, so responses are fast but still measured. If it reduces pressure on the nuclear threshold, that’s a strategic gain all by itself.

So yes, Independence Day speeches often come and go. But this year’s message landed differently. It was steady, not showy. Pakistan is adapting to the world as it is— faster, more technical, less forgiving of slow decisions. ARFC signals confidence without overstatement, preparation without provocation. It says: we’ll defend ourselves with modern tools and proportionate options, and we’ll try to keep crises from sprinting past the point of control.

That’s not a small promise. It’s the kind of quiet shift that makes a difference when minutes matter. And in our neighborhood, minutes almost always do.

Syeda Saba Israr
Syeda Saba Israr
The writer is a freelance columnist

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Must Read

Israel used secret code in Google, Amazon deal to evade global...

LONDON: A joint investigation has revealed that Israel required Google and Amazon to use a covert signal system to alert its government when foreign...