The International Court of Arbitration has ruled that it continues to have jurisdiction on disputes before it under the Indus Waters Treaty despite India’s having said it held it in abeyance after the April 22Pehelgam attack, which led to a military confrontation between India and Pakistan. International law experts had said at the time that the IWT continued to have effect, because it contained no provision for exiting from the treaty, or for any amendment, except without the consent of both parties. The ICA was especially emphatic in its finding that proceedings under the IWT, once initiated, had to be completed, and the Court itself, as well as the Neutral Expert appointed under the IWT, would be bound to complete its work, and arrive at a finding. There were already proceedings initiated by Pakistan, in which it objected to certain Indian projects, back in 2016. A neutral expert had been appointed in 2024, and the current suspension was clearly an attempt to avoid the proceedings, probably because of the likelihood that the judgement would go against India.
There is the question of what about new proceedings. The IWT is already dysfunctional, because the regular meetings of the Indus Water Commissioners, supposed to be appointed by both countries, have not been taking place. Now that India supposes itself free of the IWT, it may well start projects designed to steal Pakistan’s water. If the Water Commissioners do not meet, how is Pakistan supposed to approach the Court? Ex parte proceedings could take place, but how would such verdicts be implemented? Already, India has rejected the finding of the Court of Arbitration. Can a party to a civil suit refuse to obey the court if it rejects his plea that it lacks jurisdiction?
India should understand that the Indus Waters are central to its existence, and it is ready to take the next step that states engage in, when they find that international law does not give them redress, which is armed conflict. If that point is reached, India will find that Pakistan will see little difference between a slow death by starvation in the midst of desertification, and a faster one caused by radioactive fallout from Indian weapons used in a nuclear counterstrike. In that apocalyptic event, it may well be that India is also dragged down into the nuclear abyss, and the world into the depths of a nuclear winter.
