The immediate star of the Pak-India ceasefire was US President Donald Trump. More so than either the Indian or Pakistani Prime Ministers, respectively Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif. it was he who seemed to want to take credit for the ceasefire. It probably helped that neither of the leaders of the countries concerned seemed to want to have anything to do with it. It is possible to understand Mr Modi’s wanting to have no part of the matter, for it was his wrongheaded overestimation of his country’s strength that led to what can only be described as a debacle. However, Mr Sharif’s reticence is not so easily understandable, unless he did not want to seen backing down from a fight. Be that as it may, the respective Directors General of Military Operations have been in touch, agreeing on an immediate ceasefire, and to speak again on Monday (today).
One of the first things theory may discuss is the violations of the ceasefire. There were reports of continued Indian firing along the LoC, as well as barrages of missiles directed against Pakistani cities, apparently in a last-ditch attempt to damage Pakistani air defences. This may have been a reaction to the last pre-ceasefire action, which was the Pakistani ‘reaction’ to the missile strikes which killed 31 of its civilians, and which hit a Russian-supplied defence system among other targets. That was the second highly praised Indian Air Force weapons system, after the Rafale fighter, that was rendered ineffective. However, though there were violations of the ceasefire on Saturday, there were none on Sunday, which may well reflect the preoccupations of local commanders more than national strategy. At the same time, violations would also invoke the ire of the third party involved in reaching the peace, which would be the USA.
Apart from the violations, which may be airily dismissed by their violator as a procedural glitch, there are still the twin issues of the still-unresolved Pehelgam attack and India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Both are centred on the Kashmir issue, and without talks on that, it will not be possible to move forwards. The goal should not merely be to solve the Kashmir issue, but also to ensure that there is no repetition of a situation where nuclear-armed neighbours go up against each other eyeball-to-eyeball. If the past is anything to go by, India is ready to blame Pakistan for whatever goes wrong, and there is plenty to go wrong in a country with a billion people, and a government as inept as Mr Modi’s.
