BEIJING: China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2024, reaching 29.63 trillion yuan ($4.17 trillion), data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday.
The country’s value-added industrial output, an important indicator measuring the activity of enterprises with annual turnover of at least 20 million yuan, went up 6.1 percent compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, retail sales of consumer goods, a major indicator of the country’s consumption strength, climbed 4.7Â percent; fixed-asset investment rose 4.5Â percent year on year; and surveyed urban unemployment rate on average stood at 5.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the same period last year.
China’s economy was off to a strong start in the first quarter of 2024, according to Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the NBS. The country’s production demand picked up, with employment and prices remaining stable, and market confidence strengthening, Sheng said.
Despite the high-base effect, the latest data suggests that the economy expanded at a much faster pace than forecasted in the first quarter, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research at JLL Greater China.
Policy push of equipment investment as well as product renewal and replacement, would continue to provide a boost to domestic demand and keep the annual GDP target of around 5 percent achievable, he added.
China’s growth performance in the first quarter is much higher than overall market expectations, said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Bank. In view of the improved first-quarter performance, ANZ has revised its 2024 China growth forecast upwards, according to Yeung.
He also noted that the overall structural reform in the country has encouraged spending and led to a boom in the consumption sector, especially in the first two months of the year.
First-quarter economic data highlights China’s strong economic resilience
In the face of a complex and challenging international environment, China’s economy made a steady start in the first quarter. Market expectations continued to improve and consumer markets were bustling, indicating a clear trend of economic recovery and improvement.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, various indicators continued to rebound in the first quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter increased by 5.3 percent year on year, up by 0.8 percentage point compared to the same period in 2023, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target.
Production indicators steadily increased, with the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size growing by 6.1 percent year on year, 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous year. New quality productive forces were nurtured and strengthened, and high-tech industries saw rapid investment growth. Furthermore, profits rebounded in industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing. All these effectively enhanced the development momentum.
Amidst escalating trade protectionism, intensifying geopolitical conflicts, and persistently weak external demand, China’s total goods trade reached 10.17 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in the first quarter, a year-on-year growth of 5 percent. This marked the first time in history that the figure surpassed 10 trillion yuan at this time of the year, which was also a new high in six quarters, demonstrating the strong vitality of China’s export-oriented economy.
The service industry displayed positive growth trends, with value-added of services increasing by 5 percent year on year, significantly strengthening its support toward economic growth. Market sales continued to recover, with consumption potential in high-quality goods being unleashed and holiday promotions driving up service consumption.
Overall, employment remained stable. The urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased, per capita disposable income of residents rose by 6.2 percent year on year in real terms, and total retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percent. The role of domestic demand in driving economic growth was further enhanced.
In terms of market expectations, confidence was boosted, logistics and personnel flow became more active, with business activity and expectation indices in the high prosperity range of 52.4 percent and above.
The performance of the first quarter reflects not only China’s continued positive trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement but also the continuous accumulation of factors supporting high-quality development, demonstrating the strong resilience of the Chinese economy. However, it should be noted that as the external environment becomes increasingly complex, daunting, and uncertain, it is essential to overcome certain difficulties and exert greater efforts to maintain China’s economic growth.
In the next stage, we must adhere to the principle of prioritizing stability while seeking progress. It is important to start with improving social expectations, boosting confidence in development, expanding high-level opening-up, and continuously optimizing the business environment. We should vigorously deepen reform, strengthen policy coordination, and promote overall improvement in economic operation so as to effectively improve the quality of growth in a rational level.
