Climate change and Pakistan’s struggle for survival

A single truth frames Pakistan’s experience of climate change. The country has contributed comparatively little to the problem yet is enduring some of the planet’s harshest impacts. Pakistan accounts for well under one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions but ranks near the top in climate vulnerability. That asymmetry is no longer an abstraction. It is visible in cracked wheat fields of Sindh, in the smog-silhouetted skyline of Lahore, in the swollen rivers of Gilgit-Baltistan, and in the budgets of families and governments forced to rebuild again and again.

The 2022 super floods made this brutally clear. At the peak, a third of the country was under water. More than 33 million people were affected, over 8 million displaced, and at least 1,700 lives were lost. A rigorous damage and needs assessment by the government with the World Bank, ADB, and the UN estimated direct damages of about 14.9 billion dollars, economic losses of 15.2 billion, and reconstruction needs of over 16 billion. The total equaled close to five percent of GDP, with cascading shocks to agriculture, housing, transport, and social services. For households, the blow was compounded by lost wages and food price spikes that lingered long after waters receded.

These extremes did not arrive in isolation. In March and April 2022, Pakistan and India saw a record spring heatwave, with parts of Sindh and south Punjab above 49 degrees Celsius. Scientists link such events to human-driven warming. Heat shortens work hours, degrades learning outcomes, increases hospital admissions, and dries soils before seeds germinate. Jacobabad has become shorthand for conditions near the limit of human tolerance. That same season of record heat was followed by an unusually wet monsoon that dropped far above average rainfall, a swing of extremes aligned with climate projections for South Asia.

Geography leaves Pakistan exposed on multiple fronts. In the north, thousands of glaciers feed the Indus River system. Warming air and changing snowfall are accelerating melt and raising risks of glacial lake outburst floods that can wipe out bridges and fields within minutes. In the south, sea level rise and reduced Indus flows allow saltwater to degrade soils and push fishers and farmers to the edge. In sprawling cities, air pollution adds another layer of climate-adjacent risk.

Lahore and other centers regularly rank among the most polluted globally, with seasonal smog now an annual emergency closing schools and disrupting commerce. These crises are braided: fossil-fuel-heavy energy warms the planet and fills lungs, and water management choices shape flood and drought risk.

The macroeconomic imprint is rising. The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report for Pakistan finds that climate change could shave 4.5–9 percent off GDP by 2050 under different scenarios. The 2022 floods alone generated over 30 billion dollars in damages and losses, pushing millions into poverty. For a country already navigating balance of payments pressures and debt obligations, climate shocks act as a tax on growth that compounds over time unless resilience improves.

Agriculture, central to Pakistan’s economy and identity, is at the heart of the story. It contributes around a quarter of GDP and employs more than a third of the labor force. Climate stress lands where people live and work. Heat shortens flowering periods for wheat and cotton. Floods drown crops and wash away topsoil. Drought forces crop shifts and distress sales of livestock. The 2022 floods damaged millions of acres and wiped out over a million animals, undermining food supplies and rural incomes months after waters receded. When agriculture stumbles, industries upstream and downstream suffer too, resulting in slowdowns and food price spikes that hit poor households hardest.

The macroeconomic imprint is rising. The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report for Pakistan finds that climate change could shave 4.5–9 percent off GDP by 2050 under different scenarios. The 2022 floods alone generated over 30 billion dollars in damages and losses, pushing millions into poverty. For a country already navigating balance of payments pressures and debt obligations, climate shocks act as a tax on growth that compounds over time unless resilience improves.

Industry and infrastructure carry their own vulnerabilities. Energy and water-intensive manufacturing hubs in Punjab and Sindh are exposed to floods and chronic shortages. Transport networks fail when storms exceed design standards, cutting off markets and relief routes. Urban services buckle as storm drains clog and settlements expand on marginal land. As insurance remains thin and disaster risk underpriced, losses are socialized through public budgets and aid appeals rather than absorbed by private finance.

Living standards decline through many channels. School buildings repurposed as relief camps deepen learning losses. Heatwaves reduce safe work hours for outdoor workers. Smog raises respiratory illness and healthcare costs. Women often shoulder disproportionate burdens in caregiving and water collection, further limiting their paid participation. Climate shocks amplify existing inequalities.

Pakistan’s emissions stem mostly from energy and agriculture. Power generation, transport, and industry rely on imported fossil fuels, while farms add methane and nitrous oxide. Yet opportunity exists. Pakistan’s updated climate commitments envision a pivot toward clean energy, with goals of 60 percent renewable electricity by 2030, full transition to electric public transport, and no new imported coal. Delivering on these pledges would lower emissions growth, cut fuel import bills, and reduce air pollution.

The global system has begun to recognize the asymmetry between contribution and impact. At COP27 in Egypt, nearly 200 countries agreed to establish a dedicated fund for loss and damage to support nations hit by climate disasters. Pakistan, as chair of the G77, played a central role in putting the issue on the agenda and steering negotiations to a breakthrough decision. It acknowledges that adaptation and mitigation alone cannot address harms already suffered and that solidarity must take financial form.

The question now is how to counter changes already locked in while reducing future harm. Three intertwined strategies stand out. First, invest in resilience where it pays the highest return: climate-proof safety nets, build flood protection prioritizing vulnerable districts, climate-proof rural health posts and schools, upgrade early warning systems, strengthen building codes, and improve glacial monitoring. Second, pivot the energy system toward domestic renewables, expand distributed solar, enforce efficiency standards, and electrify transport fleets. Every renewable kilowatt saves on imports while cleaning the air. Third, conserve natural buffers like mangroves, watersheds, and urban trees that cost-effectively blunt shocks.

All three require money and staying power. Estimates of climate financing needs run into hundreds of billions of dollars over the next two decades. A recent tally places the requirement near 300 to 400 billion dollars by 2030 to align with resilience and low-carbon development. Domestic reforms matter—phasing out poorly targeted subsidies, scaling climate-tagged investments, improving procurement, and strengthening local capacity. Internationally, concessional finance, grants, and guarantees will be decisive. Millions who had little hand in creating this crisis are already paying for it.

Climate action can also be seen as a chance to do things better. Cleaner air reduces hospitalizations, raises test scores, and boosts productivity. Efficient appliances lower bills. Resilient infrastructure cuts logistics costs and saves lives. Reliable, affordable electricity is the strongest industrial policy Pakistan can adopt, and today the cheapest new kilowatt hours come from solar and wind. In agriculture, climate-aware seeds, irrigation, and extension services raise yields in good years and reduce losses in bad ones. These measures are both climate and growth actions.

The politics will be hard. Climate policy touches fuel prices, land values, and contracts. It will test coordination across ministries and provinces. But Pakistan has already shown it can lead globally, as seen in elevating loss and damage at COP27. That clarity can also animate domestic action—through embankments protecting the landless, electric buses serving low-income neighborhoods, or streamlined systems for farmers and mothers to receive timely support.

For years Pakistan’s climate conversation has swung between fatalism and wishful thinking. Fatalism says the country is condemned to suffer for others’ sins. Wishful thinking assumes the world will pay whatever it takes. Neither is persuasive. There is no path to prosperity that does not run through resilience and cleaner growth, and no viable path without domestic reforms paired with external support. The good news is that many steps are not exotic but local, proven, and doable. They are about culverts, tariffs, riverbanks, and building codes.

Pakistan did not heat the planet. But the planet is heating Pakistan. The task is to treat climate as the central development challenge of the next generation. Every year resilience is deferred and the energy transition delayed is another year heat, flood, and smog script the economy. Every year action is brought forward is another year households can breathe easier, farmers can plant with confidence, and cities can grow without choking. The direction is clear. The only question left is speed.