Climate Challenges for CPEC Corridor

Pakistan lies in one of the most strategically significant regions in the world. To the north, it borders China, a major global economic power and key regional partner. To the east lies India, a rapidly growing power with considerable economic and political influence. On its western front, Pakistan shares borders with Iran and Afghanistan, both critical for regional trade, energy cooperation, and geopolitical stability. The southern boundary opens to the Arabian Sea, providing access to major international shipping routes and serving as a vital maritime crossroads. This unique geographical placement allows Pakistan to act as a central connector between Central Asia, the Middle East, and China.

The Silk Route, also known as the Silk Road, was an ancient trade network connecting eastern China with the western world. Its significance was revitalized after the independence of Pakistan in 1947, as Pakistan emerged as a key intersection point linking Central Asia, China, and the Middle East. Originating from Xinjiang, China, the route traverses rugged terrain and harsh mountainous landscapes, including the Karakoram and Khunjerab Passes.

To facilitate connectivity, construction of a modern road began in 1966 and culminated in the form of the Karakoram Highway, an engineering marvel that stretches approximately 890 km from Hasan Abdal in Pakistan to the Khunjerab Pass at the China border. Extending beyond, a 400 km road connects Khunjerab to Kashgar, China, making the total road linkage around 1,300 km. Additionally, a proposed 1,100 km railway line from Kashgar to Havelian would further enhance the strategic and economic integration along this corridor.

The extreme altitude and presence of high mountain peaks make the region prone to natural disasters, including glacial activity and landslides. Despite these challenges, the Silk Route remains a symbol of resilient trade, historical legacy, and modern cooperation between Pakistan and its neighbouring regions. Although Pakistan contributes relatively little to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains one of the countries most severely affected by climate change. In recent years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top five hottest countries globally, with some regions recording extreme temperatures as high as 53°C in 2025. Climate-related disasters have already impacted over 33 million people, resulting in billions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods.

Despite facing frequent floods, heatwaves, and droughts, environmental risks are often not addressed with the urgency they require. Landslides are becoming increasingly common, especially in mountainous areas along the historic Silk Route, where the fragile terrain remains highly susceptible. In addition to environmental risks, these areas also experience socio-political tensions, including sectarianism and extremism, particularly near the Swat Valley. The intersection of environmental vulnerability and social instability calls for comprehensive risk management, early warning systems, and resilient infrastructure planning to mitigate future impacts.

Over the past decade, Pakistan has witnessed billions of dollars in human and infrastructure losses due to climate-induced events. The Silk Route region has been particularly hard-hit, suffering from recurring natural hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, and flash floods. In 2020, a landslide near the Mohmand Marble Mine claimed 20 lives, blocking critical access. In 2024, near the Dasu Dam in Upper Kohistan, a landslide struck a passenger bus on the Karakoram Highway, killing three— including two military personnel— and injuring one. Torrential monsoon rains triggered multiple rockslides, closing highway segments and cutting off Kohistan from Gilgit for several days. The trend continued in 2024 with a fatal landslide near Chilas, followed by a major disruption in March 2025 near Lotar in Upper Kohistan, where around 700 meters of the KKH was rendered impassable. In June and July 2025, regions near Ghizer and Babusar faced closures due to a combination of landslides and floods.

Despite these challenges, the Gilgit-Baltistan region continues to attract high volumes of tourists. According to sources including the Gilgit-Baltistan Tourism Department and Pamir Times, the region generated approximately Rs 399.5 million in revenue in 2024–2025, with Rs 275 million derived from tourism alone. During that period, 16,500 foreign and nearly one million domestic tourists visited the region, underscoring both its economic significance and vulnerability.

Landslides in this region are often the result of both natural and human-induced factors. These include soil erosion, internal soil movement, slope instability, and human activities such as material blasting near the Dasu Dam and along the KKH routes. During monsoon seasons and glacial melt periods, the risk is heightened, necessitating urgent attention to mitigation measures and climate-resilient infrastructure planning.

Ultimately, even when clear, preventable causes are known and viable technological solutions are within reach, attributing every tragedy solely to “God’s will” can become a way to avoid responsibility. Technology alone cannot resolve these issues unless there is a collective willingness to adopt it, invest in it, and act with foresight. The future of the Silk Route, the safety of its travelers, and the stability of regional connectivity all depend on our ability to transform intention into action.

From a neutral expert standpoint, it is increasingly evident that technological solutions must play a central role in addressing the growing risk of landslides in vulnerable regions like Gilgit-Baltistan. During a recent academic exchange at the University of Science and Technology Beijing, one promising model was observed at the research lab of Professor Mowen Xie, founder of Safety International. His work in developing early warning systems for landslides has already contributed to mitigating approximately 90 percent of landslide risks across various locations in China.

The early warning system functions by using a combination of sensors, inclinometers, remote sensing, satellite imaging, and seismic monitors to detect internal ground movement. These systems can predict and issue alerts ahead of potential landslide events, thereby reducing human and economic losses significantly. Plans are underway in China to deploy 24 dedicated satellites in the next five years solely for landslide monitoring, further strengthening national disaster preparedness.

Such advanced systems, if adapted and localized, could provide immense value to Pakistan, particularly in regions surrounding the Karakoram Highway. The KKH is not only a vital trade and transit corridor under CPEC but also a critical route for cross-border connectivity. A single day of closure due to landslides can have substantial economic consequences, yet the actual impact remains underexplored and undocumented.

The integration of these technologies with the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and local communities through Variable Message Signs (VMS), sirens, radio communication, and mobile alerts could form the foundation of a modern early warning system. This proactive approach would allow for timely evacuation, better route management, and strategic planning in disaster-prone zones. Considering the Silk Route’s importance for both Pakistan and China, addressing these vulnerabilities through proven technological interventions should be a strategic priority for relevant authorities, including those overseeing CPEC.

Ultimately, even when clear, preventable causes are known and viable technological solutions are within reach, attributing every tragedy solely to “God’s will” can become a way to avoid responsibility. Technology alone cannot resolve these issues unless there is a collective willingness to adopt it, invest in it, and act with foresight. The future of the Silk Route, the safety of its travelers, and the stability of regional connectivity all depend on our ability to transform intention into action.