Cloudbursts, massive downpours that deliver over 100mm (4 inches) of rain in a single hour, have caused devastating floods in both Pakistan and India during this monsoon season, claiming hundreds of lives.
Cloudbursts typically occur in South Asia when warm monsoon winds, laden with moisture, meet the colder mountain air in northern India and Pakistan, resulting in intense condensation. As the planet warms, these monsoon winds carry more moisture, leading to stronger cloudbursts. According to weather studies, the collision of warm, moist air from the east with the cold air from the west in Pakistan’s northern mountains contributes to these extreme weather events.
Data from India’s weather department shows that cloudbursts are most frequent in the Himalayan regions of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIJK), Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Fahad Saeed, a senior climate scientist at Climate Analytics, highlights that the warmer air of the monsoon, meeting the cooler subtropical jet stream from the Mediterranean, creates the perfect conditions for the formation of clouds that trigger intense rain.
The Himalayan mountain ranges running across India and into Pakistan are the regions most affected by these cloudbursts, with both countries experiencing a rise in their frequency. This year, at least four major cloudbursts have caused severe flooding, including one in Buner, Pakistan, where over 200 people lost their lives after 150mm of rain fell within an hour.
While cloudbursts typically cause less damage when they occur over flat land, they become significantly more dangerous when they happen in steep mountain valleys. The rain is concentrated into narrow streams and slopes, making flash floods and landslides more likely.
Predicting cloudbursts remains a major challenge. Meteorologists are unable to forecast the exact locations of these events in advance, but new radar systems and observatories set up in the Himalayas are helping to monitor cloud buildup and improve short-term warnings. Syed Muhammad Tayyab Shah, from Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority, noted that while general warnings can be given, pinpointing the exact location of a cloudburst remains difficult.
Despite the efforts to predict and manage these extreme weather events, cloudbursts continue to devastate communities, highlighting the need for improved disaster preparedness and resilience strategies.
