AT PENPOINT
India has announced that it will give posthumous awards to about 100 military personnel, including three Rafale pilots and five S400 operators. That indicates that the awards are being given to those who were killed both in Operation Sindoor, as well as those killed during the Pakistani response, Operation Bunyanum Marsoos. At one point, a senior Indian Air Force officer had claimed that all pilots had returned safely. Now it appears that the Pakistani claim of downing three Rafales was not only correct, but the pilots were killed, instead of having time to eject safely. The deaths of the S400 operators confirms the Pakistani claim of a successful attack on a system, which was the most modern means of air defence available to India, but which failed to prevent Bunyanum Marsoos.
It is worth noting that India had initially admitted to the deaths of eight military personnel initially, but has now conceded an even greater number soon after the government faced increasing criticism from the opposition in Parliament. It is also facing criticism from within its own ranks over conceding the losses, because it made the ruling BJP look bad.
Another complication that India has gotten into, was shown by the incident at Bhopal railway station, where posters were removed of Iranian revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iraqi religious leader Ayatollah Ali Sistani and martyred Iranian Armed Forces chief of staff Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri.
The posters had been put up by local Shia activists to coincide with Ashura, which was then days away (and which has now been commemorated), as symbols of the kind of resistance to evil that Ashura represents. It shows the sensitivities that are needed to retain Israeli friendship, once one recognizes it. Not only must any support for the Palestinian cause be abandoned, but for Iran.
India’s support for Israel is because of its wish to win over the USA. In the same way, Arab countries have recognised Israel primarily to win US favour. Saudi Arabia was moving in that direction until Hamas struck Israel on 7 October 2022, and the ensuing Israeli massacre of Gazans made it impossible for such recognition. Pakistan has long taken the position that it will not recognise Israel as long as the major Arab states do not, but that is a short-hand for Saudi Arabia. Already many Arab states have done so, but Saudi Arabia has not.
However, throughout the Muslim world, the Palestinian cause is considered a religious cause among the people, not because they have a particularly strong empathy with the liberation of the Palestinian people, but because it represents the takeover of one of the most holy sites of Islam. Recognizing Israel does not mean abandoning one of few last freedom struggles in the world, but also a deeply-held belief. In addition, recognising Israel now also carries with it the baggage of being anti-Iran. There are a number of reasons why this is not an acceptable option. It implies a revival of sectarian flames that even now have not been completely stamped out. True, it now seems sectarian terror is being nurtured by India (another example of it helping out Israel), but Israel would clearly love Pakistan to be driven away from Iran by sectarian differences.
Why go all through this rigmarole? Winning US favour. There are strong reasons for this. First, Islamabad has been concerned about New Delhi’s closeness to Washington, and wants to stop that. However, Pakistan is holding back because of China, with which it prefers to maintain relations. Unlike Iran, Pakistan sees Palestine as an Arab cause rather than a Muslim. This is also at odds with the feelings of the ordinary man in the street, who sees Palestine as visceral to his religious identity.
Pakistan’s government has tied recognition of Israel to Saudi recognition. If Saudi Arabia does recognize Israel, Pakistan will then have to choose between it and Iran, assuming Iran does not. The recognition issue is one reason why Israel is pressing for regime change there. Iran remains the only country to have de-recognized Iran after having once recognized it. Even Turkey under Erdogan was unable to reverse its recognition.
This means there is nothing to stop the Palestinian diaspora, which is surprisingly extensive and numerous, claiming a state of their own on top of today’s Israel. By then, it is unlikely that India or Iran, or even the USA or China, will exist in their present form.
So far, Pakistan has carefully balanced Iran and Saudi Arabia. While Saudi Arabia is its largest customer for labour, Iran is its largest neighbour. Whereas Saudi Arabia has been its prop against financial collapse, Iran has been consistently neutral in its wars with India, including the latest clash. (So has Saudi Arabia, but it cannot alone interdict Pakistani sea lanes.) India’s recent attempt to develop Iran’s Chabahar port as a rival to Pakistan’s Gwadar has collapsed, even though it was supposed to secure India’ oil from Iran. Iranian facilitation of Indian espionage activities in Balochistan have to cease, and it should not be forgotten that Iran has tried the sectarian card itself within Pakistan.
It has almost become a mirror of Pakistan’s efforts to balance the USA and China. The one thing Pakistan does not want to do in the current US-China confrontation is to pick a side. Well, in a way it has, for its use of Chinese technology in the recent Indo-Pak clash, which included aeroplanes, missiles and air defence systems, was pretty indicative. India being within the US camp, had European planes and missiles, which came off a very definite second-best. Choosing Iran would mean choosing China, which is in that particular camp, for two main reasons. First, it is an important part of the New Silk Road, and thus has linkages to Russia, which ultimately lead to China. Then there is the plain fact that China is the best customer for Iranian oil.
As long as Israel exists in the region, there can be no peace. Obliteration is the only real solution. There was no peace between Gaul and Rome for four centuries, until Gaul disappeared, conquered by Rome and converted into a province. When Rome fell, so did Gaul.
Gaul then became France, with Germany its great opponent. Now both are in the European Union, and are quoted as an example of how India and Pakistan can find peace through trade.
However, history is never final. As Israel proves, even the final dissolution of a people cannot be said to end them. The story of the Jews should have ended in 586 BC, when the Kingdom of Judah fell. It didn’t. They returned from exile, established a state, and were again exiled after the destruction of Masada in 70 AD. In fact, Israel was then established in 1948, even though the land was no longer empty, but full of Palestinians who wanted a state of their own.
This means there is nothing to stop the Palestinian diaspora, which is surprisingly extensive and numerous, claiming a state of their own on today’s Israel. By then, it is unlikely that Pakistan or Iran, or even the USA or China, will exist in their present form.
