Throughout history, the relentless march of science and technology innovation has consistently reshaped industries once thought impervious to change. The advent of the Industrial Revolution ignited an era of automation that revolutionized domains such as agriculture and manufacturing, bringing with it previously unimaginable capabilities. Mechanization and novel farming methods enabled industrialized nations to colonize traditional societies, exploiting their resources and stoking geopolitical rivalries that often culminated in conflicts within resource-rich regions. The mechanization drive in the 19th and 20th centuries, particularly in the manufacturing sector, led to the emergence of military-industrial complexes. This phenomenon fueled the arms race between industrial nations, profoundly influencing the geopolitical landscape and altering the dynamics of international relations among competing states. Today, a new wave of transformation is underway, spearheaded by advanced manufacturing with software-defined systems. This disruptive shift promises increased economic efficiency, yet the ramifications of software-defined automation extend much further. They possess the potential to redefine the intricate interplay of peace and conflict that shapes international relations. Human progress has consistently been interwoven with threads of innovation and discovery. The trajectory of industrialization has been an ongoing evolution, rather than a singular event, characterized by continuous advancement. The early stages of industrialization encompassed light industries such as textiles and agriculture, paving the way for the expansion of heavy manufacturing industries and the proliferation of railroads. These developments profoundly reconfigured the political dynamics of their time. European nations harnessed technological innovations to colonize less developed regions, dismantling existing norms and values while altering prevailing political systems. The Industrial Revolution empowered these nations to produce vast arsenals, not only for land warfare but also for naval battles. The intense naval competition for colonies and influence played a direct role in the outbreak of World War I, irrevocably reshaping the global political landscape. The 21st century ushers in a new era of technological metamorphosis, epitomized by advanced manufacturing automation. The transition from manual labor to software-controlled production marks a pivotal juncture in manufacturing history. Software-driven ecosystems integrating design and production have already wrought transformative effects on industries like semiconductors. Companies like Black & Decker exemplify this transformation, utilizing robotic arms and sophisticated software to achieve unprecedented speed and precision in production. Such software engenders confidence in innovation implementation by mitigating uncertainties. Automation has similarly revolutionized sectors like telecommunications, medicine, and healthcare, driving cost reduction and enhanced efficiency. For instance, in telecommunications, the dependency on advanced automation for tasks such as network optimization and maintenance underpins the advancement of 5G technology. This, in turn, influences global patterns of economic interdependence. The healthcare sector, valued at approximately $40 billion, leverages robots to analyze pre-operative medical data, guiding surgeons with heightened precision. Minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery leads to shorter hospital stays and faster recovery times. Among the most striking victories of advanced automation was the SpaceX mission, where astronauts seamlessly docked at the International Space Station using automated systems. This landmark event inaugurated a new epoch of possibilities in space exploration. Parallels between historical and contemporary automation are evident. Previous waves of technological innovation have yielded unprecedented growth and opportunity, significant disruption and risk. Similarly, the current automation wave holds the potential to reshape the power balance among nations. Given its capacity to reshape economic and political realities, automation also harbors the power to reshape the dynamics of peace and conflict among states. Sharing automation technology carries inherent risks, including the potential transfer of sensitive information that can inflame geopolitical tensions. For instance, China’s One Belt One Road initiative involves technology exports like 5G and surveillance technologies, raising concerns among states. The US restricts technology transfer to China due to perceived national security threats. This reshoring may enhance resilience and self-sufficiency while provoking job displacement, particularly in manufacturing-dependent countries like China and Southeast Asian nations. Such displacement can potentially fuel social unrest and destabilize political systems.
The insights regarding the impact of automation and the emergence of new job opportunities are drawn from a comprehensive survey conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute. According to their research, it is projected that by 2030, approximately 15% of current work activities across various sectors e.g. physical work and data-driven could be automated, representing a significant transformation in the workforce. This suggests that up to 85% of the activities currently performed by workers globally may be susceptible to varying degrees of automation.
Conversely, the survey indicates the potential for the creation of new job opportunities. Globally, this potential varies significantly by scenario and country, ranging from 25% to 85% of the workforce. For instance, rising incomes and consumption in emerging economies could give rise to a staggering 250 million to 280 million new jobs, with an additional 50 million to 85 million jobs originating from increased investment in healthcare and education. Aging populations are expected to contribute to a demand surge of 50 million to 85 million jobs in healthcare and related fields.
Moreover, technology development and deployment could generate between 20 million and 50 million new jobs, primarily in high-wage technology-related occupations. Investments in infrastructure and buildings might yield up to 80 million new jobs in the trend line scenario and a potential of up to 200 million more in the step-up scenario. Additionally, investments in renewable energy and climate adaptation may create up to ten million new jobs in the trend line scenario, with an additional ten million jobs globally in the step-up scenario. Finally, the marketization of previously unpaid domestic work is projected to offer employment opportunities to the tune of 50 million to 90 million jobs, mainly in roles such as childcare, early childhood education, cleaning, cooking, and gardening. These findings underscore the potential for significant shifts in the employment landscape across various sectors, as outlined by the McKinsey Global Institute’s survey.
In a recent report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) titled “Which Workers Are the Most Affected by Automation and What Could Help Them Get New Jobs?”, the focus is on identifying the categories of workers most vulnerable to job displacement due to automation and outlining the necessary steps to facilitate their transition into new, in-demand roles.
The report highlights that workers with lower levels of education and those engaged in routine tasks, such as cashiers or file clerks, are at the highest risk of losing their jobs to automation. However, it emphasizes that automation’s impact is far-reaching, potentially affecting anywhere from 9% to 47% of jobs in the future.
Given software’s central role in automation, states must prioritize cybersecurity to safeguard critical data. Shifting diplomatic discussions from traditional matters to technology sharing, intellectual property theft, and industrial espionage can help maintain peaceful relations. Amidst these challenges, opportunities emerge. Standardization and regulation can facilitate secure technology transfer, providing mutual benefits for states to collaborate on shared agendas. Automation across industries creates new job prospects that require specific skill sets, prompting states to implement reskilling programs to mitigate social upheaval. As the new era of automation unveils novel challenges and threats, innovative diplomacy approaches are indispensable. Skillful diplomacy, cooperation, and foresight are requisite to navigate these intricate complexities. The intersection of technology transfers and geopolitics necessitates proactive and prudent action.
