Economics of Just Energy Transition Partnerships

The key to bypassing gas

The unveiling of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) during COP 26 in Glasgow marked a pivotal moment in climate financing. This groundbreaking initiative not only holds the promise of a more sustainable and equitable future but also presents a complex array of challenges that demand thorough exploration and analysis. The pursuit of global climate goals hinges on the success of these partnerships, making it essential to delve deep into their economic dynamics and implications.

The inception of JETPs was not a capricious decision; it arose out of dire necessity. Emerging economies, heavily reliant on coal for their energy needs, found themselves grappling with the dual challenge of shifting towards cleaner energy sources while safeguarding their workforce from economic displacement. Leading the charge, countries like South Africa were the first to benefit from these partnerships, receiving substantial financial commitments from international powers determined to facilitate their transition. This initial step marked the dawn of a new era in global cooperation for sustainable energy development.

From its origins as a singular commitment to a single nation, the JETP initiative has swiftly evolved and expanded. Countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Senegal have since joined this transformative approach to energy transition. The financing landscape has also diversified, with an increasing number of national and international banks aligning their resources with the cause. This growth reflects a growing consensus on the urgency of addressing climate change and the role of partnerships in achieving ambitious targets.

The audacious JETP Implementation Plan (JETP IP) put forth by South Africa, seeking a staggering $98 billion, inevitably raises eyebrows when juxtaposed against the initial commitments made in Glasgow. Similarly, Indonesia, during the G20 summit in Bali, unveiled its own ambitious plan, aiming to pool $20 billion over five years while setting stringent emission reduction targets. These case studies serve as real-world experiments, showcasing the translation of lofty promises into concrete action plans, with all their attendant challenges and lessons.

A persistent debate revolves around the role of fossil gas as a transitional energy source from coal to renewables. Recent geopolitical events, such as Russia’s actions in Ukraine, have exposed the geopolitical risks associated with relying on such a transitional approach. As a safer and increasingly viable alternative, a direct transition from coal to renewables gains prominence, fueled by recent advancements in renewable energy technologies. This shift aligns more closely with the imperatives of climate stability and energy security.

JETP nations, endowed with abundant renewable resources, stand poised to capitalize on their wind and solar potential. In the case of South Africa, studies suggest that nearly half of its energy needs could be met by renewables within the next decade. Similarly, Indonesia could expedite its ambitious 2050 renewable energy targets with substantial investments in the sector. Unlocking this potential not only contributes to emission reduction but also fosters energy independence and economic growth. The socioeconomic impact of different energy sources cannot be understated. Data underscores that investments in clean energy generate more jobs compared to fossil fuels. For instance, a $1 million investment in renewables could catalyze the creation of 103 jobs in Indonesia, while the same investment in fossil fuels would yield a mere 22 jobs. The initial strides made by JETPs offer a glimpse into a ‘just’ transition, but further refinement and a comprehensive roadmap are eagerly anticipated to ensure equitable benefits for society.

As the objectives of the Paris Agreement loom large, the urgency to reduce gas power generation becomes more pronounced. Forward-looking studies emphasize the need to significantly curtail gas-based electricity production by 2035.

It’s imperative that nations, especially Pakistan, leverage their inherent renewable energy potentials through frameworks like JETPs, aligning with global trends and maximizing benefits for their citizens. The integration of such initiatives with mega projects like CPEC further amplifies their impact. As we tread into a future fraught with climate uncertainties, JETPs symbolize hope, a roadmap for nations worldwide to follow, ensuring that the transition to sustainable energy is not only environmentally sound but also just and equitable for all.

Investing in gas infrastructure today carries the risk of creating stranded assets that may become obsolete as renewable energy technologies gain economic traction. The imperative to align investment strategies with long-term climate goals cannot be overstated. While the foundational principles of JETPs lean towards a commitment to fossil-free energy transition, the practical implementation might diverge due to various factors.

Civil society’s role becomes pivotal in acting as a watchdog to ensure that the noble objectives of these partnerships remain uncompromised. The undeniable successes and credibility of renewables underscore the trajectory that should be followed, emphasizing that vigilance and transparency are crucial components of a successful energy transition.

JETPs stand on the precipice of transformative change, representing a beacon of hope for sustainable energy transition worldwide. As nations embark on this collective journey, it is imperative to uphold the core tenets of these partnerships: rejecting short-lived solutions like fossil gas, prioritizing the advancement of renewables, and remaining adaptable based on new insights and lessons learned. If navigated judiciously, JETPs can serve as trailblazers for the global community, ushering in a future characterized by both sustainability and social justice.

Pakistan, endowed with significant renewable energy potential and an ever-expanding energy demand, stands at a crucial crossroads concerning its energy trajectory and commitment to climate prosperity. The need for Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) for Pakistan becomes paramount in this context.

Firstly, Economic Sustainability and Development: historically, Pakistan’s economy has been entrenched in a carbon-intensive energy matrix, mainly reliant on imported fossil fuels. This dependency not only strains the country’s trade balance but also exposes it to global price volatilities. Adopting JETPs, much like its counterparts such as South Africa and Indonesia, can catalyze investments in the indigenous renewable sector, fostering energy independence and fortifying economic resilience.

Secondly, Job Creation and Social Equity: embracing JETPs can bring a socioeconomic windfall for Pakistan. As outlined earlier, the renewable sector promises significant job creation, a critical need for Pakistan’s young and expanding workforce. The energy transition, if managed equitably, can ensure that the benefits permeate to the grassroots level, ensuring upliftment of marginalized communities and creating opportunities for local entrepreneurship.

Thirdly, Strategic Fit with Global Partners: as global financial institutions and partners coalesce around the JETP initiative, Pakistan, by being a proactive participant, can tap into international financial and technological resources. This is not merely about gaining access to funds but aligning the nation with a global movement dedicated to sustainable energy transformation.

Fourthly, Harnessing Indigenous Renewable Potential: Pakistan boasts significant solar and wind energy corridors. With strategic investments and JETP partnerships, the nation can rapidly scale its renewable energy capacity, thereby reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. Such a shift can offset tons of CO2 emissions annually while ensuring the country meets its commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Fifth, Addressing Geopolitical Risks: the geopolitics of energy, as seen with the Russia-Ukraine situation, can be tumultuous. Relying on transitional energy sources from external actors carries inherent risks. A national commitment to JETPs and a focus on indigenous renewables can alleviate such geopolitical dependencies.

Sixth, Civil Society Engagement and Transparency: given Pakistan’s vibrant civil society and media landscape, JETPs can ensure a participatory approach to energy transition. Through consistent engagements, the state can ensure transparency, credibility, and public buy-in, which are vital for the success of such transformative initiatives.

Last but most important, CPEC’s Energy Focus: a significant portion of CPEC investments revolves around energy projects. While a majority are coal-based power projects, there is an emerging realization of diversifying this portfolio. Chinese tailored JETPs can bridge this gap, aligning CPEC’s objectives with sustainable energy transition goals. Incorporating JETPs within the CPEC framework presents Pakistan with an opportunity to redefine its energy landscape. It allows the nation to merge its most ambitious infrastructure endeavour with a global movement dedicated to sustainable energy transformation. By doing so, Pakistan can position itself as a leader in sustainability, reaping economic benefits and fulfilling its global climate commitments.

For Pakistan, JETPs are not just another international collaboration but a strategic imperative. They represent a pathway to harness the nation’s abundant renewable potential, ensure economic prosperity, and meet global climate commitments. Embracing the principles and ethos of JETPs can place Pakistan at the forefront of sustainable energy champions, weaving a narrative of resilience, innovation, and social justice.

In an era where climate action is more urgent than ever, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) unveiled during COP 26 stands as a testament to international collaboration for sustainable progress. Designed to help emerging economies transition from coal dependence to cleaner energy sources, JETPs underscore the delicate balance between ecological responsibility and socioeconomic growth. Nations like South Africa and Indonesia have already showcased the potential of these partnerships, blending ambitious commitments with pragmatic action plans. The recent narrative also sheds light on the evolving energy discourse, with a marked shift from fossil gas to direct renewable energy adoption.

It’s imperative that nations, especially Pakistan, leverage their inherent renewable energy potentials through frameworks like JETPs, aligning with global trends and maximizing benefits for their citizens. The integration of such initiatives with mega projects like CPEC further amplifies their impact. As we tread into a future fraught with climate uncertainties, JETPs symbolize hope, a roadmap for nations worldwide to follow, ensuring that the transition to sustainable energy is not only environmentally sound but also just and equitable for all.

Dr Khalid Waleed
Dr Khalid Waleed
The writer has a doctorate in Energy Economics and serves as a Research Fellow in Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI). He can be reached at [email protected] and tweets @Khalidwaleed_

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