Larger Effects of Russia-Ukraine War

Id sanity going to prevail?

The normal life of the people of Ukraine became harder on 24 February 2022 when the Russian Federation, a superpower of the time, attacked its territory due to diplomatic/strategic reasons best known to all of us. It was followed by a daily routine, an environment of fear and uncertainty continuing till today on account of the war lingering beyond Russian expectations and veiled support of Ukraine extended by NATO members including the USA.

In the continuing war Ukraine suffered a lot as it was the largest military assault on a European State since World War Two, although it was started in 2014 when an anti-Russian dispensation took over in the country and Russian-speaking people began helping Russia against the homeland government, dividing the nation into pro- and anti-government factions. Even a part of the territory was captured by Russian-backed separatists and going a step further, Kremlin recognized the two republics,-Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, as separate states managed and maintained by Russian supporters.

Despite the ongoing war between the two, negotiation channels were never blocked and, as earlier talks took place on10, 17, 20 and 22 March 2022 which raised genuine hopes for ceasefire and ultimately the end of the war in the larger interest of humanity

On that very day, the Federation Council of Russia authorized Vladimir Putin to use military force abroad, and following the authorization, the Russian forces entered these two states of Ukraine. As a result, in addition to heavy losses due to the ongoing war, more than one million Ukrainians left the country and took shelter in East European countries keeping in view their security and safety. Under a planned war strategy a multi-pronged invasion was launched on Ukraine where the latter proved helpless before the world community, although it got a lot of direct assistance from the NATO countries, especially the USA, without them being directly involved in the war. Thus, a group of anti-Russians sympathized and helped Ukraine to face a massive and extended war on the part of the Kremlin.

Most people and nations of the world are of the opinion that Russian Federation has fueled fire and is also responsible for not ending the war at the earliest and while Ukraine is fighting in its defense, Russia has attacked Ukraine in a offensive way to destroy as well as capture the country by force, to end or minimize its leanings towards NATO and the Western countries including the USA.

The Kremlin estimation in assessing Ukraine’s real power has also gone wrong because since 2014, the UK, US, EU and NATO have provided the country with non-lethal military aid, making it a viable fighter against a power like Russia. In continuation these nations have also sold Ukraine varieties of war weapons and anti-tank missiles in 2018, 2019 and 2022 that made it able to stand before Russia for such a long time (about 40 days). In the war even foreign volunteers are frequently allowed to participate from Ukraine’s side and in an order dated 1 March, it also provisionally lifted visa restrictions for those volunteers who want to come and fight on Ukraine’s side; as a little latter it was disclosed by Ukraine’s foreign minister that as of 6 March around 20,000 foreign nationals from 52 countries were fighting against the Russian attack.

In fact, they came in response to the call given by its President Zelenskyy who earlier created the International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine, which Russia opposed vehemently and began preparing to counter. Only because of claims and counterclaims, at the juncture, it is not possible to know the authentic number of deaths of civilian and military forces and persons engaged in this war, and even the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights considers the number of civilian casualties to be higher than they certify and announce.

The Russian attack on Ukraine is a clear violation of international law, norms, and practices implemented since the end of the Second World War, but especially after the formation of the United Nations Organisation (UNO).

At the juncture while almost entire world community is against the Russian invasion on Ukraine as it had violated/distorted the very first stated purpose of the UN which says, ‘to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind’ and to have these dreams come true, it founded the organization called UN was established based on the sovereignty of states as mentioned in article 2(1) of the Charter and also outlawed the use of force by one state against another (article 2(4)

In the context, it is clear that sending armies across the border of a state without its consent or without authorization of the UN Security Council is an attack on one member by another. In addition, the Kremlin also violated international law and norms by recognizing two republics of Ukraine as independent states, andit interfered in the sovereignty of an independent country.

Hardly a week after the outbreak of the war on March 4, 2022 the Human Rights Council created a committee called the International Commission of Inquiry by voting with 32 in favour two against and 13 abstentions. Amnesty International (AI), another UN institution, also remained active from the beginning of the war and it has clearly undermined the global image of the Kremlin.

With the eruption of war on 24 February, the first talk on ceasefire was held in Belarus between the two only after four days which proved fruitless as they both failed to achieve a consensus. It was mainly focused on ensuring humanitarian corridors for the safe routes for citizens and after three rounds of talks no deal was reached to handle the issue, however, on 5 March the Russian Federation agreed to give a five- and-a- half hour ceasefire for evacuation of needy humans in some parts of the country, but the time was much less than was required.

As the war moved further its strategic side became clearer when Russia put three diplomatic-cum-strategic demands which include;1. Ukraine’s neutrality, 2. recognition of Crimea annexed by Russia in 2014 as Kremlin’s territory, 3. recognition of the two newly self-proclaimed separatist republics of Ukraine, recently created by Russian support. With these proposals, Russia also expressed its good wishes and declared a temporary ceasefire in several places including Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. In the circumstances it was not possible for Ukraine to accept these in toto and, in response, its President Zelensky suggested a direct meeting with Vladimir Putin to end the continuing war and also proposed a collective security agreement for Ukraine to ensure its safety and security.

ADespite the ongoing war between the two, negotiation channels were never blocked and, as earlier talks took place on 10, 17, 20 and 22 March 2022 which raised genuine hopes for ceasefire and ultimately the end of the war in the larger interest of humanity.

The writer is presently Professor and Head, Department of Political Science and Dean of Social Sciences at B.N. Mandal University, Madhepura (Bihar), India. His 19 books published in addition to 900 articles in national and international journals and daily newspapers from 25 foreign countries.

Dr Rajkumar Singh
Dr Rajkumar Singh
The writer is head of the political science department of the B.N.Mandal University, Madhepura, Bihar, India and can be reached at [email protected]

Must Read

Pakistan’s Transforming Defence Landscape

In the ever-evolving landscape of global security, the role of advanced missile systems in shaping military capabilities and postures cannot be overstated. Recently, the...

The nulls take over

Epaper_24-03-29 LHR