Our perennial economic woes

With the presentation of budget for year 2021-22 just around the corner, a slugfest between the government and the opposition parties continues unabated. There is no longer talk of taking the opposition on board as pledged by the newly minted finance minister Shaukat Tarin.

He has belatedly joined the chorus that the PML-N government left the economy in shambles. The PML-N held a pre-budget seminar on Thursday, with its leadership coming down hard on the government for what it termed as making false claims about the revival of the economy. Bilawal Bhutto on the other hand gave his daily dose of skepticism about the performance (or lack of it) of the government.

We need to find out what ails Pakistan’s economy. After all, every few years we have to run to the IMF accepting its strict conditionalities.

It is axiomatic that the onus of reaching out to the opposition primarily lies on the shoulders of the government. However, the opposition stuck in its own groove, is in no mood to talk.

While the ruling party is basking in its (mostly self-created) hype about ‘miraculous GDP growth’ of virtually zero in real terms to almost four percent during the current financial year. The State Bank of Pakistan has also chimed in to put its seal of approval on the bureau of statistics released figures about economic recovery.

This would mean that all is honkey dory for Khan for the rest of his term. This is the build-up being given by the official media and a vast array of  prime minister’s spokespersons. An impression being deliberately created that, “we have arrived.”

One would wish that it was as simple. A sudden spike in GDP although commendable does not guarantee by itself a smooth sailing.

The prime minister, in his not so infrequent speeches, shown live on the media, is brazenly claiming that mafias have been defeated (by him).

He especially singles out Jahangir Tareen, his erstwhile friend and now nemesis in this context. Tareen, known as JKT, gets the flak for being the largest sugar producer in the country.

Perennially in the self-congratulating mode, Khan also declared the other day that his ritics had declared him a failure. However, he proved them to be wrong. Comparing himself to Jinnah, the founder of Nation, he incredibly claimed: I, in the same manner in which the Quaid was forced to leave the country in disgust, later to return and resume his struggle for Pakistan.

Any revival of the economy will require a reform agenda that has to be chalked out sooner than later.

But changing the fundamentals by bringing about a structural change is a herculean job. This could also be a perfect opportunity for the PM to demonstrate that his ‘Naya Pakistan’ is not merely slogan mongering.

Leader of the opposition Shahbaz Sharif not too long ago spoke about reaching an ‘economic concord’. Presumably he meant consensus building on economic issues.

Easier said than done. He has to bring his own rank and file on board starting from the elder Sharif who still runs the show from London to former finance minister Ishaq Dar who has his own ideas about how to run the economy.

He and the younger Sharif have never been on the same page on the economy. Let us admit that we are a divided and fractured nation at a time when cohesion is needed the most.

We need to find out what ails Pakistan’s economy. After all, every few years we have to run to the IMF accepting its strict conditionalities.

The recently sacked finance minister Dr Hafeez Sheikh has been accused of signing on the dotted line on an inflation fuelling IMF reform program and its Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Ironically it was on the discredited finance minister’s watch that the so-called economic revival took place.

Right now the government’s economic team is engaged with the IMF team to renegotiate a fresh deal that is less stringent. Tarin is himself leading the putsch. He spoke to the Fund’s MD on the matter.

Over the decades, getting in and out of IMF programs interspersed with relative high GDP has become a familiar pattern. And then back to square one.

After all, what is the malaise that afflicts our ailing economy? Why do Pakistan’s overall economic indicators lag behind a vast majority of countries? All these questions beg an urgent answer.

But none are forthcoming as squabbling politicians are too busy to attend to such mundane matters. The economy in the meanwhile is being mostly managed by finance ministry apparatchiks.

The need of the hour is to head hunt for an economic czar who has the imagination and capacity to chalk out a workable economic plan. One of the possible choices could be Mr.Tarin himself

The sine qua non for such a person to succeed is that the prime minister should empower him enough to deliver.