- NEOC’s multiple impact-based weather alert forecasts severe conditions expected from July 2 to 8th
- PMD predicts a significant intensification of monsoon activity countrywide beginning from the evening of July 5
- Says moist monsoon currents continuously penetrating country and would likely strengthen over the weekend
ISLAMABAD: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Wednesday issued a fresh warning regarding flash floods and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events as heavy monsoon rains killed 64 and injured 113 across the country duirng the past week.
According to the NDMA alert, the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province reported the highest number of 23 deaths, including 10 children, due to rain-related incidents, including the 14 victims who were swept away by flash floods in Swat Valley since June 26, 22.
Punjab followed with 21 deaths, Sindh 15 and Balochistan with 5. At least 113 were injured throughout the country, among them 45 children, 37 men, and 31 women, the NDMA stated.
The National Disaster Management Authority warned provincial and local authorities to stay high alert throughout the monsoon season, particularly in mountainous and low-lying areas, as heavy rains continue to batter parts of Punjab and KP.
“The National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC) of NDMA has issued multiple impact-based weather alerts for various regions of Pakistan in light of forecasted severe weather conditions expected from 2nd to 8th July 2025,” the NDMA said. “These alerts highlight the growing risk of flash floods, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and urban flooding in different parts of the country.”
نیشنل ایمرجنسیز آپریشن سینٹر الرٹ:
2 تا 8 جولائی 2025 کو مون سون بارشوں کا سلسلہ جاری رہنے اور ممکنہ سیلاب کا خطرہ۔ خیبرپختونخوا، آزاد کشمیر، شمال مشرقی پنجاب میں 5-8 جولائی کو شدید بارشوں کا امکان ہے۔ pic.twitter.com/NAOilaxfpP— NDMA PAKISTAN (@ndmapk) July 2, 2025
The NDMA said low to moderate rainfall is likely to continue until July 5, after which an active southwest monsoon system, coupled with a westerly wave, is expected to enter the country and generate moderate to heavy rainfall and localized thunderstorms.
“The most affected regions are upper catchments of major rivers including Central and Lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu & Kashmir and the northeastern parts of Punjab, particularly Lahore,” the authority said.
It warned of increased river flows across the country, the Kabul River in particular, warning that inflows into Tarbela Dam may reach the low flood limit. The NDMA said flash floods in riverine areas, especially where nullahs and local streams converge, may pose threats to nearby settlements.
“Simultaneously, the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and landslides has increased in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where ongoing high temperatures have accelerated glacier and snow melt,” the NDMA said.
“The situation is further aggravated by incoming moist currents and rainfall. Vulnerable glacial valleys and narrow mountain passes may face sudden GLOF events, flash floods, road blockages, and disruptions to infrastructure and tourism.”
The NDMA warned that in northeastern Punjab, including Lahore, Sialkot, and Narowal districts, local nullahs such as Aik, Deg, Bein, Basantar, and Palku may overflow, causing waterlogging and urban flooding in low-lying neighborhoods. In D.G. Khan and Rajanpur, hill torrents may also be activated, causing localized low-level flooding.
The authority urged the public to take precautionary measures, warning residents against unnecessary travel.
Separately, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecast a significant intensification of monsoon activity across the country beginning from the evening of July 5, with widespread rain, thunderstorms and the possibility of flash floods and urban flooding in several regions.
According to the Met Office, moist monsoon currents were continuously penetrating the country and would likely strengthen over the weekend.
A westerly wave was also expected to approach the upper parts of the country on July 6, further enhancing the rainfall.
— Pak Met Department محکمہ موسمیات (@pmdgov) July 2, 2025
As per the regional forecast highlights, rain-wind/thunderstorms with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall are expected from July 5-10 in multiple areas, including Muzaffarabad, Neelum Valley, Rawalakot, Swat, Dir, Malakand, Kohistan, Chitral and others.
Gilgit-Baltistan’s areas, including Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit and Astore, may also experience similar conditions from July 6 to 10.
In Punjab and Islamabad, widespread rain and thunderstorms with heavy falls are expected from July 5-10 in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad and several other districts. Southern Punjab regions, including Multan, Bahawalpur, and Dera Ghazi Khan, will receive rain between July 6 to 8.
About Balochistan, the PMD forecast that rain-thunderstorms are likely in Loralai, Khuzdar and Lasbella from July 3-4 and again from July 6-8.
Sindh’s regions, such as Karachi, Hyderabad, Tharparkar and Sukkur, may experience moderate rainfall during July 3-4, with chances of isolated heavy falls in southeastern parts.
As per possible impacts and public advisory, heavy to very heavy rains may generate flash floods in local nullahs and streams of Murree, Galliyat, Manshera, Kohistan, Abbottabad, Buner, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Nowshera, Swabi, Mardan, and Islamabad/Rawalpindi; hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan, northeast Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and parts of Balochistan from the night of July 5-8.
Heavy downpours may cause urban flooding in low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Nowshera, and Peshawar from July 6-8.
Landslides and mudslides may lead to road closures in vulnerable hilly areas of KP, Murree, Galliyat, AJK and GB during the wet spell.
Heavy rainfall, strong winds and lightning may damage weak structures such as roofs and walls of mud houses, electric poles, billboards, vehicles and solar panels during the forecast period.
The PMD advised farmers to manage their agricultural activities keeping in view the weather forecast.
The public, travellers and tourists were strongly advised to avoid unnecessary exposure in vulnerable areas and stay updated on weather developments to prevent any untoward situations.
All authorities were also instructed to remain on high alert and take precautionary measures to mitigate any potential risks.
In May, at least 32 people were killed in severe storms as the country experienced several extreme weather events in the spring, including strong hailstorms.
Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, and its 255 million residents are facing extreme weather events with increasing frequency.
In 2022, monsoon floods submerged a third of the country and killed 1,700 people.
