Operation rising lion: Israel’s strike on Tehran ignites a dangerous new Middle East War

At the heart of the complex and explosive politics of the Middle East lies the enduring enmity between Iran and Israel. On the dawn of June 13, 2025, Israel escalated this tension to an unprecedented height by launching extensive airstrikes on Iran’s capital Tehran and other crucial sites. This attack, dubbed “Operation Rising Lion,” targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and high-ranking military commanders and scientists. Among those killed were Major General Hossein Salami, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces; and several nuclear scientists. Tehran views this attack as particularly conspiratorial and shocking, given that an Iran-US diplomatic meeting had just concluded in Oman the day before. This event signals a profound crisis not only for the two nations but for global security and stability.

Deep Roots of Enmity: A Historical Background

The roots of the Iran-Israel conflict run deep, manifesting in various forms over decades:

• 1979: The Transformative Islamic Revolution: The overthrow of Shah Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini turned anti-Israel sentiment into state ideology. Israel was labeled the “Zionist enemy.”
• 1982: Birth of Hezbollah: In response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, the Shia guerrilla group Hezbollah was formed with Iran’s active support and assistance, later becoming a primary security threat to Israel.
• 1983: Devastating Bombings of US & French Barracks in Beirut: Iran-backed attacks killed numerous US and French military personnel, dealing a major blow to Western powers.
• 1992-94: Attacks on Jewish Targets in Argentina: Devastating bombings targeted the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires (1992) and a Jewish community center (1994). Iran and Hezbollah were blamed but denied involvement.
• 2002: Exposure of Iran’s Secret Nuclear Program: After revelations about Tehran’s uranium enrichment program, Israel brought it to the global stage, calling for harsh sanctions and potential military action.
• 2006: Second Lebanon War: Following the abduction of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah, Israel launched a major military operation in Lebanon. The month-long war caused losses on both sides, and Israel failed to eliminate Hezbollah. ● 2010: Stuxnet Cyber Attack: A sophisticated Stuxnet virus attack targeted Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility, widely attributed to Israel and the US, setting back Iran’s nuclear program.
• 2012: Targeted Killings of Iranian Nuclear Scientists: Nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan was killed in a Tehran bombing, blamed on Israel.● 2018-Present: Israeli Strikes in Syria: Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes in Syria targeting Iran-backed Shia militias and Iran’s military presence, especially weapon systems supplied by Iran.
• 2020: Assassination of General Qasem Soleimani: Israel welcomed the US drone strike in Baghdad that killed influential IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Iraq.
• 2021: Assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran’s top nuclear scientist and former deputy defense minister was assassinated. Iran directly blamed Israel.
• 2022: US-Israel Joint Commitment: President Joe Biden and PM Yair Lapid pledged to work jointly to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• April 2024: Attack on Iranian Embassy Compound in Damascus: An Israeli airstrike on the consular section of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, killed seven senior IRGC officers. While Israel didn’t claim responsibility, it was seen as a direct attack on Tehran.
• April 2024 (13-19): Cycle of Direct Attacks & Counterattacks: In retaliation for the Damascus attack, Iran launched, for the first time in history, over 100 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directly at Israeli territory (primarily targeting military installations). Israel responded with limited counterstrikes.
• October 2024: Retaliation for Killing of Hamas & Hezbollah Leaders: In revenge for the killings of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Iran fired over 180 missiles at Israel. Israel responded with airstrikes.

 June 2025: ‘Operation Rising Lion’ – The Start of Full-Scale War?

The June 13th attack is not seen as just another “shadow war” or proxy conflict. Many believe it marks the beginning of a full-scale war (Act of War). Israel’s objective was to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminate key figures involved. In response to the Tehran strikes, Iran not only threatened retaliation but launched a massive drone and missile barrage on Israeli territory under “Operation True Promise Three,” causing casualties and damage in Israel. Israel has declared a state of emergency.

International Reactions and Questions of Involvement:

• Role of US (United States): Iran firmly believes the US provided backing and consent for the attack. President Donald Trump acknowledged prior knowledge of the strike, and US embassy staff and non-essential personnel from military bases in the Middle East were withdrawn in the preceding days. However, Washington denies direct involvement. Israel’s envoy, Yeshiel Leiter,told CNN their conflict is with Iran’s rulers, not its people, and their goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Questions arise: Why did the US fail to deter Israel from this attack?
• Global Condemnation & Concern: Canada and the UK’s Prime Ministers strongly criticized and condemned Israel’s attack. Governments and heads of state from Ireland, Netherlands, Venezuela, Turkey, and Malaysia criticized the Netanyahu administration’s war policies, citing Middle East instability. Statements were issued by Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministries. Both the UN and EU called on both sides to exercise restraint and return to the path of diplomatic resolution.
• Muslim World Stance: Following this attack, many Muslim-majority countries, from Saudi Arabia and Turkey to the UAE, have been compelled to take a stance against Israel.
• Iran’s Allies: Russia, China, Pakistan, South Korea, and other Iranian allies have strongly condemned the attack. The potential involvement of some of these nuclear powers complicates the situation further.
• Jordan’s Defensive Posture: Amid heightened tensions, Jordan has taken a firm stance to protect its airspace. On the morning of June 13, the Jordanian Air Force shot down Iranian drones that likely violated its airspace en route to Israel. Jordan has clearly stated it will confront any threat to its sovereignty.

 Iran-Israel Military Strength Comparison:

Both nations are formidable militarily, though their strengths are concentrated in different areas.

• Military Ranking & Budget: On the Global Firepower (GFP) index, Iran ranks 14th and Israel 17th in military strength. However, Israel leads in defense spending – its annual budget is approximately $24.4 billion, compared to Iran’s $9.95 billion.
• Troop Numbers: Iran leads in active personnel (approx. 1.18 million vs. Israel’s 670,000). However, Israel has a high capacity for reserve forces and manpower recruitment.
• Air Power: Israel’s military aircraft fleet (612) slightly outnumbers Iran’s (551). Israel also has more fighter jets (341) and trainer aircraft (251). Iran leads in transport aircraft (140 vs. 44). Israel’s qualitative superiority, especially its F-35 stealth fighters and advanced training/command-control systems, is a significant advantage.
• Helicopters: Israel has more helicopters (146), particularly attack helicopters (48, mainly Apaches), compared to Iran’s total (129, with only 13 attack helicopters).
• Ground Forces: Iran has a massive numerical advantage in armored fighting vehicles (tanks, APCs, IFVs): Tanks (Iran 1,996, Israel 1,370); Armored Vehicles (Iran 65,765, Israel 43,403). However, Israel’s tanks (Merkava series) and armored vehicles are technologically superior.● Artillery & Rocket Systems: Iran has numerical superiority in rocket artillery (MLRS: Iran 775, Israel 150) and self-propelled artillery (Iran 580, Israel 650). Iran’s ballistic missile program (Shahid, Khaibar Shekan, etc.) is highly advanced, and its ability to strike deep inside Israel with long-range missiles is a key strategic asset.
• Naval Power: Iran leads in the number of naval vessels (101 vs. Israel’s 67). Iran possesses 7 frigates and 21 corvettes/patrol vessels; Israel has no frigates. Iran also leads in submarines (19 vs. Israel’s 5). However, Israel’s submarines (Dolphin class) are believed capable of carrying nuclear-armed missiles. Iran’s IRGCN (Revolutionary Guard Navy) with its unconventional tactics (swarming attacks, mines) and coastal defense missile systems is crucial for controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
• Nuclear Capability: While not formally acknowledged by Israel, it is globally recognized as a nuclear-armed state (estimated 80-400 warheads). Iran is not officially nuclear-armed and claims its program is peaceful. However, Western intelligence reports Iran possesses nearly 400kg of uranium enriched to 60%, sufficient for nuclear weapons. An Israeli source claimed that without “Rising Lion,” Iran would soon have gained the capability to produce 10 nuclear bombs.
• Missile Defense: Israel is far ahead of Iran in air defense. Its layered defense system – Iron Dome (short-range rockets/artillery shells), David’s Sling (medium-range), and Arrow/Arrow 2/Arrow 3 (anti-ballistic missile) – is highly effective, capable of intercepting a large portion of Iranian attacks. While Iran’s air defense (Russian S-300, indigenous Bavar-373) is strong, it is less effective against Israel’s stealth technology and electronic warfare capabilities.

 Future Scenarios: The World Facing Catastrophe

The current direct clashes point towards extremely dangerous future scenarios:

1. US DRAWN INTO DIRECT WAR: If Iran launches major attacks via its proxy groups (Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, Houthis) or directly on US bases, diplomatic missions, or allied nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE) in the Middle East, resulting in US casualties, the Trump administration would face pressure to respond militarily. This could escalate into a larger, more protracted conflict than Iraq or Afghanistan, with far-reaching global consequences.
2. DRAGGING IN GULF STATES: If Iran cannot effectively strike core Israeli targets, it might target Gulf states (especially Saudi Arabia and UAE), perceived as covertly aiding Israel. The presence of US bases in these countries would necessitate direct US involvement in their defense. Iran and its proxies have previously been implicated in attacks on Saudi oil facilities and Emirati civilian targets.
3. POLITICAL VACUUM & INTERNAL UPHEAVAL IN IRAN: If Israeli strikes severely weaken the Islamic regime, a major political vacuum could emerge in Iran. Long-simmering public discontent over women’s rights, economic crisis, and repression could escalate into civil war or chaos amidst foreign attack. PM Netanyahu’s call to “liberate” the Iranian people fuels this fear. However, experiences of foreign intervention leading to regime collapse (Iraq, Libya) have created deep suspicion of external meddling among Iranians.
4. LONG-TERM LOW-INTENSITY WAR: If Israel fails to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it may adopt a strategy of regular strikes to set back the program. Iran, in turn, could strike Israel and its interests via proxies. This could lead to a prolonged, damaging conflict, destabilizing the region’s security and economy long-term.
5. ACCELERATED NUCLEAR ARMS RACE: Israel’s attack may solidify Iran’s belief that possessing a credible nuclear deterrent is its only guarantee of survival. Experts fear Iran could accelerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons, feeling unprotected by the international community. This could trigger Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others in the region to pursue nuclear weapons, starting a catastrophic arms race in the Middle East. The risk of nuclear weapons falling into terrorist hands would also increase.
6. COLLAPSE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: Oil prices have already risen significantly. If Iran closes the Strait of

Hormuz or the Houthis in Yemen massively increase attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, global energy supply would be severely disrupted. A world economy already reeling from post-COVID recovery, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the US-China trade war could not withstand this shock. The result would be extreme global inflation, soaring living costs, and severe hardship for developing nations. Oil exporters like Russia could benefit.

 Conclusion: Diplomacy, Not Arms, is the Only Path to Peace

The Iran-Israel conflict is no longer just a regional dispute; it has become an existential threat to global peace, stability, and economic security. ‘Operation Rising Lion’ and its aftermath have inaugurated a new, terrifying, and uncertain chapter in the Middle East. The specter of nuclear risk, environmental disaster, proliferation of WMDs, and a full-scale regional war has the world holding its breath. The solution to this crisis lies not in military might, but in diplomacy. The international community, especially the UN, neutral powers (like China, Oman), and the EU, must urgently intervene. Both sides must exercise restraint, break the cycle of revenge, and return to the negotiating table. Ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program must go hand-in-hand with addressing Israel’s legitimate security concerns. Unilateral pressure or shows of force will only intensify the conflict. The current world is weakened by the Russia-Ukraine war, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. Another major war, especially in a region fraught with nuclear risk, would spell catastrophic disaster for humanity. At this critical juncture in history, leaders have a responsibility to rise above ego and vengeance, demonstrating wisdom, restraint, and a commitment to peace. Time is running out. If effective diplomatic initiatives are not taken immediately, the flames of this Middle Eastern conflict could engulf the entire world.