Cotton first

The start of trial operations by another sugar factory in Ghotki should not be read as a routine industrial development. It is a warning sign. The plant has already processed around 92,000 tonnes of sugarcane and takes the number of sugar mills in a district once known for cotton from five to six.

Pakistan is expanding the wrong crop. Sugarcane may offer the farmer an assured buyer and timely cash flow, but it is a poor national bargain. It locks land and water into a long-duration crop in a country that is already water-stressed, while displacing cotton, the crop that feeds Pakistan’s most important export industry.

The arithmetic is not complicated. According to figures cited by Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam Vice Chancellor Dr Altaf Ali Siyal, sugarcane requires 66.9 inches of water per acre. Cotton requires 31.5 inches. Wheat requires 16.7 inches. In other words, one acre of sugarcane consumes more water than cotton and wheat combined.

This is not just an agronomic problem. It is an economic misallocation. PIDE research has found that sugarcane consumes about 3.5 times more water than cotton, while one litre of water used in cotton production generates about four times higher monetary benefit at both the farm-gate and processing stages.

Cotton, unlike sugarcane, sits at the centre of an export value chain. Profit has previously reported that textiles account for between 50 and 60 percent of Pakistan’s export earnings, while the country’s cotton output has fallen sharply from 14 million bales in 2005 to around 5 million bales last year. This decline has forced mills to rely on imported cotton, adding pressure to the import bill and weakening the domestic farm-to-factory chain.

Sugarcane’s defenders argue that farmers choose it because cotton has become risky. That is true, but it is not an argument for further cane expansion. It is an indictment of cotton policy. Weak seed research, pest vulnerability, unstable prices, poor extension services and uncertain procurement have pushed farmers towards crops that offer better short-term security. 

The policy response should be clear. No more public encouragement, regulatory softness or infrastructure bias for sugarcane expansion in cotton zones. Water pricing must reflect scarcity. Crop zoning must be enforced. Cotton areas should receive priority in canal water, seed development, pest control, crop insurance, financing and price support.

Pakistan cannot keep subsidising a crop that exports water and imports inflation. The country needs foreign exchange, rural employment and industrial depth. That means cotton first, not cane.