The world watches

Iran sounds more defiant than conciliatory as the USA gets antsy

Iranset out terms to the end of the war on Wednesday which do not include any reference to the kind is surrender that the USA wants, but the USA can be quietly self-congratulatory, because the Iran has set out terms for an end to hostilities which is not a peremptory demand that they simply cease. However, even now, the demand by President Masoud Pezeshkian that Iran’s legitimateb rights be recognized, that reparations be paid and that there be firm international guarantees against future aggression. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has said that the war would come to an end soon, and that the USA was running out of targets. From a quick glance, it would seem that Iran has lost, but the resolve of its leadership does make that dubious.

The US calculation that it could foment a popular uprising against the government does not seem to have worked. The only thing left is to carry the war to the Iranian people. The USA has historically not baulked at this. The bombing of Dresden in February 1945 killed 1900 people and destroyed 1600 acres of the city centre, using conventional weapons. It was specifically designed to break the German people’s will to resist. Then came Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August the same year, following which Japan surrendered. How far will Mr Trump go to break Iranian defiance? Or is he willing at last to see reason and bring an end to what has proved an unwinnable war. That the world is increasingly uncomfortable is to be seen from the International Energy Agency’s release of 400 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves. That is the equivalent of four days total production, or 16 days of what passes through the Strait of Hormuz. IEA members hold strategic stocks of 1.2 billion barrels, while industry has a reserve of about 600 million barrels under government control. That amounts to 72 days of what passes through the Strait. The USA should realize that its inability to keep the Strait open will lead to the failure of its strategy. Apart from other things, Iran has made demands that are only made by victors, such as for reparations. If it hasn’t lost, it hasn’t won either. True, the war was imposed on it, and worse, after the USA and Israel tried it on last year. Neither the USA nor Israel can be controlled, so that while many guarantors will be found willing to end the madness and futility, how many of those guarantees will be worth anything?