MBS visits White House to boost oil, security and high-tech cooperation

WASHINGTON: A visit by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler to the White House for talks on Tuesday with US President Donald Trump aims to deepen decades-old cooperation on oil and security while expanding ties in commerce, technology and potentially nuclear energy.

It will be Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s first trip to the United States since the 2018 killing of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul. US intelligence concluded that MBS approved the capture or killing of Khashoggi. MBS denied ordering the operation but acknowledged responsibility as the kingdom’s de facto ruler.

More than seven years later, the world’s largest economy and the world’s top oil producer want to move forward. Trump is seeking to cash in on a $600 billion Saudi investment pledge made during his visit to the kingdom in May. He avoided raising human rights concerns at that time and is expected to do so again.

The Saudi leader is seeking security guarantees amid regional turmoil, as well as access to artificial intelligence technology and progress toward a civilian nuclear programme.

“There is a page that has been turned” on Khashoggi’s killing, said Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi-based lecturer in international relations at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences.

Focus on defence deal

The United States and Saudi Arabia have long had an arrangement in which the kingdom sells oil at favourable prices in exchange for US security. That equation was shaken by Washington’s failure to act when Iran struck Saudi oil installations in 2019. Concerns resurfaced in September when Israel struck Doha, Qatar, in what it said was an attack on Hamas members.

Afterwards, Trump signed a defence pact with Qatar via executive order. Many analysts, diplomats and regional officials believe the Saudis will get something similar.

Saudi Arabia has sought a US defence pact ratified by Congress. Washington has tied this to the kingdom normalizing ties with Israel. Riyadh, in turn, has linked normalization to a commitment from Israel’s right-wing government to Palestinian statehood.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who agreed last month to a Trump-brokered ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza after two years of war, on Sunday reaffirmed his opposition to Palestinian independence.

An executive order similar to the Qatar pact would fall short of what Riyadh wants. But Alghashian said it would “be a step on the way, part of the process, not the end of the process.”

A Western diplomat based in the Gulf summarized: “Trump wants normalization and Saudi wants a full defence pact, but the circumstances don’t allow. In the end, both sides will likely get less than they want. That’s diplomacy.”

Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations, said he expects an executive order calling for the United States and Saudi Arabia “to immediately consult on what to do in response to the threat,” without committing Washington to defend the kingdom.

“That could run the gamut from providing assistance, replacing arms, deploying missile batteries like THAAD or Patriot, deploying naval forces with a Marine unit – to actively taking part in combat,” he said.

Deals key amid regional rivalry

Riyadh is also pressing for deals in nuclear energy and artificial intelligence under its Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy and strengthen its position relative to regional rivals.

Securing approval to acquire advanced computer chips would be critical to its ambitions to become a global AI hub and compete with the United Arab Emirates, which in June signed a multibillion-dollar US data centre deal granting access to high-end chips.

MBS also wants a deal with Washington on developing a Saudi civilian nuclear programme as part of efforts to move beyond oil. Such an agreement would unlock US nuclear technology, strengthen security ties and help Saudi Arabia keep pace with the UAE — which already has a programme — and Iran.

But talks have stalled because the Saudis did not want to accept US conditions that would rule out enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel, both potential paths to a nuclear weapon.

Ross said he expects an announcement of an agreement on nuclear energy, or at least a statement showing progress.