The minus one formula has been tried before and it has not worked. There are added issues with applying it to the PTI.
The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) is in an unenviable position. In the more than two years that the party’s former chairman and founder has been behind bars they have failed to find a stable leader to guide the party and its faithful. New reports that a “minus one” formula for the PTI’s political future is in the works will only add to the disappointment of the party’s voter base.
The minus-one formula is nothing new to Pakistani politics. It comes from the belief that the “problematic” part of a political party can be boiled down to the presence of its main leader. The minus one formula, however, does not work for a few reasons. The first is that it assumes a people vote for the party colours and not for the person leading that party. This has historically just not been true in Pakistan. The second reason is that it is hard to keep the minused leader away, who rarely wants to go away quietly. We have seen this in the case of Mian Nawaz Sharif, who is a parliamentarian once again and had the PML-N performed even a little better would have been Prime Minister. Similarly, a minus one formula was also attempted with Asif Zardari in the PPP, but he is currently serving his second term as President.
In the case of the PTI, the minus one formula has an added problem: there is no clear leader to take up the mantle. Yes, Gohara Ali Khan has been chairman of the party and has led them through the last general election but he has not gotten close to consolidating power. In the initial days following Imran Khan’s arrest, it seemed he would emerge as a reliable leader with the firebrand Sher Afzal Marwat by his side, but the latter’s outspokeness rubbed the rest of the party cadre the wrong way and he has since parted ways. Ali Amin Gandapur might have been an obvious choice as KP Chief Minister, but more than one failed attempt and mobilization seems to have disillusioned the party’s supporters with his leadership. Similarly, while Omer Ayub Khan is opposition leader, he is no longer the party’s general secretary and hence in no position to consolidate authority.
It seems there is really no successor to Imran Khan, and power is split between a number of leaders within the party. Even in the case of the PML-N, when minus-Nawaz was in the works, Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz were two clear alternatives. In the same case, Bilawal Bhutto was a clear alternative in the minus-Zardari formula. In this one way it seems staying away from dynastic politics has proven a roadblock to Mr Khan, especially considering his sister Aleema is a political novice. While talks of a minus one formula continue, for now PTI leaders continue to depend on access to their jailed leader for any sort of legitimacy. And with no end in sight to his legal troubles, the PTI is likely to remain fractured and adrift.
