Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif might have felt on more familiar ground talking about trade when US Secretary of State Mark Rubio rang him up to thank him for the help Pakistan gave the USA in arranging the ceasefire with Iran, than discussing the geopolitics of the issue, or even reminding him of how Pakistan was still waiting for US mediation on Kashmir, with which President Donald Trump had put on the table as an inducement to Pakistan to agree to the ceasefire. However, trade is these days a dangerous subject, because Mr Trump is fixated on striking a deal.
Unfortunately for everyone, the deal he is trying to strike is meant to reduce the US deficit. Considering that Pakistan runs a perennial trade deficit, any country with which it runs a surplus is a valuable asset. Its largest surplus is with the USA, and while Mr Sharif wishes to see this surplus increase, Mr Trump would like to decrease, and ultimately convert into a deficit. If Mr Sharif hopes that increased trade will lead to a greater foothold in the US market, he should consider the example of China. As soon as the USA realized that it was moving up the supply chain, and into hi-tech fields, Mr Trump and his supporters kicked up a rumpus and Mr Trump started throwing about the USA’s considerable economic weight, imposing penal tariffs on all countries, not to mention the gratuitous insults he flung about. He spoke about unfairness, and just managed to sound like a crybaby. The problem is that products made in the USA are expensive, and often of shoddy quality. Only where the USA enjoys a technological edge, as in computer science of the aerospace industry, does it retain its market share.
If Pakistan was to dare challenge that edge, it would see the wrath of the USA descend on it, as the USA tried to grab the ‘invisible hand of the market’ and drive it in an advantageous direction. So long as Pakistan remains a minnow, the USA will tolerate it, but if it becomes even a lowly gudgeon, let alone one of the big boys, like a shark, then it will turn upon it. The USA already has little love lost for Pakistan, and so this is not the time to expect it to give the country a fair shake.
