The targets set by the Uraan Pakistan programme, launched by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday, are ambitious, but they represent a concrete commitment by which the government is to be judged at the time of the next election. Considering the timing of the programme, it seems meant to be complete by then. If its targets are achieved, it could well lead to a re-election of the present government, which has completed stabilization, and now seeks prosperity, It is perhaps a reflection of how times have changed that the Programme targets a six percent GDP growth rate, even though only a couple of decades ago, the desired growth rate was said to be seven percent. This growth rate was needed, it was said, to accommodate the job seekers being thrown onto the job market every year by population growth.
From the perspective of the present, the targets seem over-ambitious, but are doable. The key to achieving much of what is planned lies in the target of exports of $60 billion a year. That would be almost triple the 2023-24 exports of $23 billion in just four or five years. That would mean growing exports by 27 percent a year. Such growth is needed not just to service Pakistan’s foreign debt, but also to help it pay its way in the world. However, it would mean massive job creation, with the target of 1 million jobs realistic, as well as a spurt of GDP growth like the one targeted. However, that means the ability of Pakistan to sell to the rest of the world. An economic strategy based on an externality cannot be relied on. An immediate example came the same day, as one of the unspoken factors in the plan, oil prices, saw a slight inching up. One of the aspects the Plan relies on is Energy and Infrastructure, another is the Environment. These require Pakistan to move away from reliance on fossil fuels for energy production. Renewables are an energy source which do not rely on external factors for continued prosperity.
Just preparing a plan is not enough. The government would like to follow the plan to fruition, but there must be a mechanism that ensures that it will be followed by a government of different partisan stripe. That is the true meaning of the political stability that is being discussed with such intensity these days.
