As expected, Mian Shehbaz Sharif won the election for Prime Minister as the National Assembly gave him 201 votes, versus 92 for Gohar Ayub. That amounts to a two-thirds majority, but is still short of the requirement of 224, making the total membership of the House. Still, it is within striking distance, and the majority is a striking improvement on Mian Shehbaz’s wafer-thin majority during his previous government, when he had just the bare minimum. The PTI/Sunni ittehad Council took part in the election, despite its reservations about the 23 reserved seats it is claiming, but which the Election Commission has still not given. Even if those seats were indeed filled, other seats would be left vacant, such as one where a candidate died, or where one person (like the new PM himself) had won more than one seat. Still, the Mian Shehbaz government faces two great tests soon, and will depend on the 70 seats of the PPP to achieve at least one of them.
The first test will be to negotiate a new package with the IMF. The present Standby Arrangement was negotiated by Mian Shahbaz when he led the PDM coalition that replaced the PTI, and the caretakers merely implemented it. IMF programmes have grown in importance ever since friendly countries, notably China and Saudi Arabia, have made an IMF programme a condition for lending to Pakistan. The second test will be to pass a budget incorporating the promises made for the new package. For that, it will need PPP support. The PPP’s 70 MNAs voted for Mian Shehbaz, but the party has not accepted any Cabinet positions, and insists it will support the government from the outside. It will wait until Asif Zardari is re-elected President before it does anything about its support. The refusal by the JUI(F) to support the new PM is also not a good omen.
The new government is beset by many challenges right from the get-go. Attention has now shifted to cabinet formations, which will then be succeeded by the hurlyburly surrounding the presidential election on March 9, and then by jostling for party tickets in the coming Senate elections. The PM’s initial speech sounded the right notes and showed an awareness of the economic problems facing the common man, but did not indicate any major steps which would change things. It is to be hoped that this awareness is not dulled by the politics involved in keeping his coalition together.
