No country of the region, not even India itself, is certain about New Delhi’s future steps in Afghanistan because the situation there became very delicate for India since the US announcement that it would withdraw from Afghanistan before September 11, without making any post-exit political arrangement for stability, peace and development in the country. Apart from strategic interests of getting an edge over Pakistan, India had invested a lot in infrastructure since the beginning of the War on Terror in October 2001, mostly related to education, irrigation development, power generation projects, help in construction of Shahtoot Dam near Kabul along with supply of anti-Covid-19 vaccination recently, and at the juncture all India-related risks depend only on the way Afghanistan Keeps the Taliban at bay after the US pullout.
Even the Trump Administration’s exit from Afghanistan was conditional on Taliban taking measures to prevent Al-Qaeda or any other militant group from harbouring in the country, along with an assurance of agreeing to a dialogue on power-sharing in Afghanistan, while in the Biden Administration there no such thing and the only focus was on an early pull out, indicating his frustration at the two decades long war in Afghanistan. The increased wave of violence and forced occupation of territories vacated by the foreign forces in different parts of Afghanistan have worried not only India but Russia, Iran and China about anti-Afghan activities and the political future of the country. In the circumstances, the critical situation for India if war in the present form continues, and converts into civil war to linger for years. But the situation will be worse if the Taliban take over the administration as in 1996 and work as a puppet government controlled by Pakistan. In that case the possibility of India sending forces to Afghanistan cannot be ruled out.
The history of bilateral relations between India and Afghanistan have been friendly and strong over the last several decades barrings the brief period when the Taliban ruled (1996-2001). In the post-Taliban phase India attached itself to the government elected under the 2004 constitution, framed as a result of the Bonn Agreement, in which Taliban were not invited on the insistence of the USA, which later recognized thias a mistake after resurgence of the Taliban after 2003. After the end of Taliban rule, India became the largest regional provider of humanitarian and reconstruction aid.
Presently India is trying hard to prevent Taliban’s expansion of power and influence in Afghanistan while Indian interests lie in making the Taliban weak and the Government strong to protect and promote its developmental works done in the last two decades. At this juncture, India needs to re-orient its policies towards Afghanistan and deal with the changing dynamics of power politics in the region to safeguard its interests.
On a number of occasions Afghan authorities praised Indian efforts and investments. In April 2006 when Hamid Karzai visited India, the two countries signed three Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) for strengthening cooperation in rural development and education and promoting bilateral business.
Relations between the two improved significantly in 2011 with the signing of a strategic partnership agreement and four years later as a follow-up India donated three Mi-25 attack helicopters to Afghanistan with a promise to send one more to counter the Taliban.
From 1996-2001 Taliban ruled about three quarters of Afghanistan’s land and implemented a strict type of Sharia and transferred the capital to Kandahar of the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, recognised only by three nations— Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As the country had suffered a lot on account of militancy and gang war in the last two decades the role of international charitable and development organisations became most significant in war-torn territories to look after the needs of the masses, but in this period the most affected portion of the government were humanitarian aid, supply of food, employment, reconstruction, and other services. The rule of the Taliban and their allies were responsible for massacres against Afghan civilians as they conducted the policy of scorched earth, burnt vast areas of fertile land and destroyed tens of thousands of homes, banned hobbies, but totally failed to check violence and the ongoing gang or group wars on the soil of Afghanistan. All international agencies, including the United Nations Organisation, reported against the misrule and anti-humanitarian attitude of the Taliban rule for which the Government of Pakistan was also responsible, who extended all helps— moral, material, financial, logistical and military.
The then regime of Afghanistan, according to several international sources, took help of Pakistani nationals, Pakistani trained fighters, and Al-Qaeda militants to fight against the anti-Taliban forces in the country. Simply the end of Taliban rule in December 2001 did not mean the total elimination of the group and it re-emerged in 2003 more powerful and stronger and began fighting against the US-led foreign forces which launched a War on Terror in Afghanistan. Over the years its strength multiplied many times and it faced foreign forces as usual, leading the USA to think about negotiations and finally announcing withdrawal.
Despite the US assurance and its airstrikes on Taliban’s hideouts /camps in Afghanistan, in recent weeks, there is no allies left in the country like America which had extended security cover for the last 20 years and the Taliban has taken control of about 203 districts out of 325 districts in Afghanistan while remaining 122 will also come under influence of the Taliban after the pullout of foreign forces.
The increasing power of Taliban is in no way beneficial for India and poses a daunting challenge for Indian investments in Afghanistan as well as extremist elements of Kashmir and other parts of India. As geographically both India and Pakistan are closest to Afghanistan, any anarchy or instability there will cast a dark shadow on both but if Taliban becomes powerful and Pakistan again emerges as its sole ally in the region, the coming days will be harder for New Delhi. Presently India is trying hard to prevent Taliban’s expansion of power and influence in Afghanistan while Indian interests lie in making the Taliban weak and the Government strong to protect and promote its developmental works done in the last two decades. At this juncture, India needs to re-orient its policies towards Afghanistan and deal with the changing dynamics of power politics in the region to safeguard its interests.
Rajkumar Singh’s article is a well thought out and timely one. He has systematically analysed the issues involved in the geopolitics of the region that is rapidly evolving after the withdrawal of the US from the scene. As William Dalrymple once predicted it was impossible for any foreign power to play a successful role in the tough political terrain of Afghanistan. As the author says India would have to remould her relationship with the Thaliban-ruled Afghanistan. Reorienting the policy is easily said than done.
As a political scientist, the author has done justice to his analysis of the evolving regional politics.
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